When will Wanda form?

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When will Wanda form?

Poll ended at Sun Oct 03, 2021 5:48 pm

September 29-30
0
No votes
October 1-5
11
33%
October 6-10
17
52%
After October 10
4
12%
The season will end with Victor
1
3%
 
Total votes: 33

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AlphaToOmega
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When will Wanda form?

#1 Postby AlphaToOmega » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:38 pm

Tropical Storm Victor has formed today. Thus, it is natural to ask when Wanda might form.

September 29-30
October 1-5
October 6-10
After October 10
The season will end with Victor
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Re: When will Wanda form?

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:49 pm

Made the poll for the members to vote and it will be open until next Sunday at 6:48 PM EDT.
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Re: When will Wanda form?

#3 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:01 pm

Betting on that WCAR system to become Wanda; after that, looks like AlphatoOmega might need to take a short break from initiating the storm name polls as it looks like we already have a "When Will Adria form" thread.... :lol:
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Re: When will Wanda form?

#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:07 pm

When will Wanda form?

I wanda. :lol: :lol:

But nah, all jokes aside, I'm thinking between October 6th and October 10th. Which I believe is when the small suppressed Kelvin wave should be on its way out.
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Re: When will Wanda form?

#5 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:59 pm

One of these days the "the season will end with *name*" option will be right.

But not this time! Oct 6-10 for me
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Re: When will Wanda form?

#6 Postby WiscoWx02 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:10 pm

Starting to think ole Victor is gonna be the last one. Something just telling me the Caribbean Sea isn't gonna do what we think it's gonna do
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Re: When will Wanda form?

#7 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:28 pm

WiscoWx02 wrote:Starting to think ole Victor is gonna be the last one. Something just telling me the Caribbean Sea isn't gonna do what we think it's gonna do


I mean, development can still happen in the subtropics...

Also, just something to keep in mind, but a season (let alone a -ENSO year) having no NSs in October and November is something I am pretty sure has never happened anytime recently...
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Re: When will Wanda form?

#8 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:43 pm

Voted after October 10 but I think it'll form around there, give or take a few days in either direction. we're likely in for at least a week of no new storms.

WiscoWx02 wrote:Starting to think ole Victor is gonna be the last one. Something just telling me the Caribbean Sea isn't gonna do what we think it's gonna do


1982 and 83 (which are questionable), 1993, 2002, and 2006 are the only years during the entire satellite era where nothing formed after September. All five of those were during El Nino, and three were also during volcanically-induced decrease in activity.

Longer range models do continue developing storms into November, they just aren't likely to be the big ACE producing majors that people are expecting.
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Re: When will Wanda form?

#9 Postby WiscoWx02 » Thu Sep 30, 2021 9:06 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
WiscoWx02 wrote:Starting to think ole Victor is gonna be the last one. Something just telling me the Caribbean Sea isn't gonna do what we think it's gonna do


I mean, development can still happen in the subtropics...

Also, just something to keep in mind, but a season (let alone a -ENSO year) having no NSs in October and November is something I am pretty sure has never happened anytime recently...


Well that's embarrassing, I totally forgot about the subtropics for a second there. Guess I'm just too hooked on this Caribbean Sea fever :lol:
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Re: When will Wanda form?

#10 Postby Teban54 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:21 pm

My rather bullish prediction:

After a brief lull, Wanda forms around October 8-10 or possibly later. Thanks to the CCKW boost, it quickly intensifies into a Cat 3/4 in the Western Caribbean, and either hits or narrowly misses Cuba. May or may not hit somewhere in Florida.

Another TS forms later in the MDR around mid month and people are amused how rare it is. It either gets pulled north near or east of the Bahamas (Gonzalo 2014-like track), or crashes into GA like Elsa/Fred/Grace. May become a weak hurricane somewhere.

The season ends with one more Cat 2/3 hurricane in late October or November. Takes the classic climo track for this time of the year and hit Cuba while moving NE, like Michelle or Paloma, and goes OTS afterwards.

A few weak TS or STS inbetween.
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Re: When will Wanda form?

#11 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Oct 30, 2021 7:36 pm

Subtropical Storm Wanda has officially formed (Halloween 00Z GMT).
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