Surface Trough off SE U.S Coast (is Invest 92L)

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Ubuntwo
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Surface Trough off SE U.S Coast (is Invest 92L)

#1 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Oct 03, 2021 4:12 am

1. A surface trough located about 100 miles east of the southeastern
Bahamas is producing a large area of cloudiness and shower activity
along and to the east of the trough axis. Upper-level winds are
expected to be marginally conducive for slow development of this
system while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph through
Monday, followed by a slow northwestward motion through the end of
the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Decent GEFS support.
Image

Several impulses on the GFS. Convective feedback?


Euro has no development.
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Re: Surface Trough East of the Bahamas

#2 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Oct 05, 2021 2:31 pm

Image
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Re: Surface Trough East of the Bahamas

#3 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:35 pm

Is it just me, or is model support for this system increasing?
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Re: Surface Low East of Florida

#4 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:34 pm

1. Recent buoy and satellite wind data indicate that a weak area of
low pressure is developing about 175 miles east of the northeastern
coast of Florida, but the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized due to strong upper-level winds. The
low is expected to move northward and then northeastward at 5 to 10
mph off the southeastern coast of the United States during the next
few days, and upper-level winds are expected to remain too strong
for significant development. By the weekend, the system is
forecast to interact with a front near the coast of the southeastern
United States, which could also limit tropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image
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Re: Surface Trough off SE U.S Coast

#5 Postby Nimbus » Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:41 pm

Gotta love that late season TUTT that has been providing just enough shear.
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Re: Surface Trough off SE U.S Coast (is Invest 92L)

#6 Postby AJC3 » Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:18 am

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