How strong will 16E/Pamela get?

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How strong will 91E/Pamela get?

Poll ended at Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:03 pm

* < 96 kt (sub-major)
2
11%
* 96 – 112 kt
3
16%
* 113 – 125 kt
6
32%
* 126 – 138 kt
3
16%
* 139 – 151 kt
4
21%
* ≥ 152 kt
1
5%
 
Total votes: 19

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Shell Mound
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How strong will 16E/Pamela get?

#1 Postby Shell Mound » Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:47 am

This poll is to concern 16E—future Pamela—in the EPAC. By all indications it looks to become a formidable system—possibly a historic one, given -ENSO.

Moderators, please turn this thread into a poll with the following options:

* < 96 kt (sub-major)
* 96 – 112 kt
* 113 – 125 kt
* 126 – 138 kt
* 139 – 151 kt
* ≥ 152 kt

My preliminary “guess”: 139 – 151 kt (to be precise, 140 kt).
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How strong will 91E/Pamela get?

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:04 pm

Made the poll for the members to vote and it will close on Sunday at 1:03 PM EDT.
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Re: How strong will 91E/Pamela get?

#3 Postby Hurricane2021 » Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:13 pm

My guess is 150 - 175 mph :shoot: :craz:
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Re: How strong will 91E/Pamela get?

#4 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:36 pm

Probably rather early to guess, but I’ll conservatively go with 115-120 kt. Yellow Evan brought up Genevieve ‘20 due to also having an extremely favorable forecast environment, but it never reached its full potential and capped out as a low-end Cat 4. Perhaps Pamela could be the same due to this also being a -ENSO year.
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Re: How strong will 91E/Pamela get?

#5 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:37 pm

I am going to go with a 125 or 130 mph peak.
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Re: How strong will 91E/Pamela get?

#6 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:54 am

Based on current organisational and modelled trends, UL divergence could remain favourable through landfall, heightening the potential ceiling.
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Re: How strong will 16E/Pamela get?

#7 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:16 pm

Based on current organizational looks and trends in dry air and shear, I have a decent feeling that the previous models and thoughts that a major, powerful hurricane will hit Mexico are going to not verify. I myself fall into this category.
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Re: How strong will 16E/Pamela get?

#8 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 10:00 pm

Looks like the -ENSO pattern prevails as Pamela is probably going to bust nearly all the forecasts. Looks like only 2 people were correct here.

I was not on board that Pamela was going to be a historic storm at all. The background state just isn't very favorable. Still, I thought Pamela was going to be a little stronger then right now...
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