Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

[ElectricStorm]

So the original question was will the season end early or not... If we get even just 1 more named storm (which is very likely) then the answer to that question is no, it would not end early.

[Hammy]

Guess we will have to just agree to disagree Hammy. I think maybe one more storm, maybe in November, but October is quickly coming to a close....I just don't see it getting active all the sudden.....

There's a vast difference between getting active all of a sudden (which I doubt will happen) and the season shutting down early--which would imply no further storms develop after September--which is equally unlikely.

It is highly unlikely that we go the rest of the season without development, as it takes exceptional circumstances well beyond what we are seeing to do so.

Cooling oceanic waters, more ULL's. More fronts coming down....It's not really that hard to fathom only 1 more storm the rest of the season....

That's still not an early end. In fact one more storm after a week or two would be on the later end of season endpoints.

[ConvergenceZone]

There's a vast difference between getting active all of a sudden (which I doubt will happen) and the season shutting down early--which would imply no further storms develop after September--which is equally unlikely.

It is highly unlikely that we go the rest of the season without development, as it takes exceptional circumstances well beyond what we are seeing to do so.

Cooling oceanic waters, more ULL's. More fronts coming down....It's not really that hard to fathom only 1 more storm the rest of the season....

That's still not an early end. In fact one more storm after a week or two would be on the later end of season endpoints.

the season is still skewed though as prior to the September peak there was A LOT of activity and after the peak, not so much. You think it would be more balanced on each side of the peak as opposed to a sharp drop off........

[tolakram]

I think one or two more storms. It's hard to imagine anything strong right now, given current conditions, but I have to remember that conditions will change and we do have a bit more than a month left in the season. We'll see. Oh, and ConvergenceZone, I don't really care if you disagree with me, you ask for others opinions.

[Ubuntwo]

Cooling oceanic waters, more ULL's. More fronts coming down....It's not really that hard to fathom only 1 more storm the rest of the season....

That's still not an early end. In fact one more storm after a week or two would be on the later end of season endpoints.

the season is still skewed though as prior to the September peak there was A LOT of activity and after the peak, not so much. You think it would be more balanced on each side of the peak as opposed to a sharp drop off........

Climo is for more prolonged activity before the peak compared to after. But on average there is more total NS/H after the peak, especially with the secondary October peak, followed by a sharp drop off in November. That is to say post season activity is more concentrated across a month or two while pre season activity is usually more spread out. Conditions did not materialize for that second peak so we won’t see a big active burst, but a couple NS seems likely.

[Category5Kaiju]

I am willing to bet that we will see Adria at least. 2 more NSs between now and December 31 can't be that hard to accomplish, right ?

[ConvergenceZone]

I think one or two more storms. It's hard to imagine anything strong right now, given current conditions, but I have to remember that conditions will change and we do have a bit more than a month left in the season. We'll see. Oh, and ConvergenceZone, I don't really care if you disagree with me, you ask for others opinions.

Hhaha...Tolakram. Actually you and I are on the same page regarding further development, whether you want to accept it or not
Love ya Man!

[Hammy]

It's worth noting that we've had several years where October produced little to nothing where November was active, or where there was a month long gap after September activity ended. It's uncommon, but most of those years more closely fit this year's profile than the years that ended early--and happened more frequently. For reference, it's been 18 days since the last storm dissipation.

1979 (29 days)--Henri dissipated on the September 24, and nothing formed until October 23
1981 (27 days)--Irene extratropical on October 1, the next storm didn't form until the 29th. Two more storms (including a hurricane) followed in November.
1989 (20 days)--Hugo became extratropical on September 23, the next storm wasn't until October 13.
1991 (33 days)--Claudette and Erika dissipated on September 11, and the basin was completely void of activity until October 14. Two more hurricanes followed.
1994 (39 days)--Ernesto dissipated on Sep 25 (and the last of three depression that followed on September 30th), and we saw two hurricanes--including one borderline major--in November. This despite going into November with only one hurricane the entire season.
2007 (26 days)--Melissa dissipated September 30, Noel formed on October 26.
2015 (32 days)--Joaquin became extratropical October 7, and we still had Hurricane Kate in November, this despite being in an intense Nino year.

[Fancy1001]

I just find it funny that the season basically shut down right before we got to Wanda.