Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

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Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#1 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:33 pm

Okay, so my posts keep getting deleted and I think it's probably because they were out of place on the topic that was being discussed. So to solve that problem I'm just creating a separate topic, thus the will no longer be out of place. and have no reason to be deleted.....
Anyway, I'm curious how this year will end? I've followed the tropics for at least 3 decades now and some seasons go out with a bang and others just shut off like a Faucet once you get to October. I'm hoping this year end abruptly.

The USA Mainland(not the islands) have been incredibly fortunate over the last month. After IDA I thought for sure the USA was in for a horrible season, but so far, almost all storms that have formed have went out to sea.....My prediction, which is obviously just an opinion, is that we have 3 to 4 more storms. The question will be what the steering mechanisms will be if those storms develop. Will the remainder of the season be characterized by lots of troughs and shear making systems difficult to develop? I guess only time will tell, but I am hopeful based upon what I've seen in the last 2 weeks.....Perhaps October will go out like a Lamb and November will go in like a Lamb and the season will wind down....
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#2 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Oct 09, 2021 7:50 pm

With an impending favorable MJO and CCKW (not to mention the elephant in the room, the negative ENSO), I would not bet on an early end to this hurricane season. Every cool-neutral, weak La Nina, or moderate La Nina year since 1995 featured a major hurricane in October. Given how sensitive this hurricane season is to intraseasonal variations, we could easily see an October that is just as active as August or September. The climatological peak of hurricane season is a three-month period from August to October, and we do not leave it until November 1. The hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but CFSv2 is showing potential subtropical development near the Iberian Peninsula during December.

Moreover, steering patterns forecasted by the CFSv2 indicate a Florida landfall later this month à la Wilma (2005).
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#3 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:03 pm

A reminder before people start debating over this point again and again:

The United States is not the only land mass in the basin. Historically a non-insignificant number of October hurricanes have made landfall in the CONUS, particularly Florida; but even if you exclude them and think the conditions do not favor a CONUS landfall, hurricanes can still easily hit other land masses neighboring the Caribbean. Even in November (when CONUS hurricane hits are exceptionally rare), hurricanes can still impact Central America (Eta, Iota), the Greater Antilles (Michelle, Paloma, Cuba 1932), or even the Lesser Antilles (Lenny, Tomas).
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#4 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Oct 09, 2021 8:15 pm

Teban54 wrote:A reminder before people start debating over this point again and again:

The United States is not the only land mass in the basin. Historically a non-insignificant number of October hurricanes have made landfall in the CONUS, particularly Florida; but even if you exclude them and think the conditions do not favor a CONUS landfall, hurricanes can still easily hit other land masses neighboring the Caribbean. Even in November (when CONUS hurricane hits are exceptionally rare), hurricanes can still impact Central America (Eta, Iota), the Greater Antilles (Michelle, Paloma, Cuba 1932), or even the Lesser Antilles (Lenny, Tomas).


You are 100% correct. I will change my word from USA to USA Mainland just to differentiate and know that I'm only talking about the Mainland in this case...
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#5 Postby al78 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:27 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:With an impending favorable MJO and CCKW (not to mention the elephant in the room, the negative ENSO), I would not bet on an early end to this hurricane season. Every cool-neutral, weak La Nina, or moderate La Nina year since 1995 featured a major hurricane in October. Given how sensitive this hurricane season is to intraseasonal variations, we could easily see an October that is just as active as August or September. The climatological peak of hurricane season is a three-month period from August to October, and we do not leave it until November 1. The hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but CFSv2 is showing potential subtropical development near the Iberian Peninsula during December.

Moreover, steering patterns forecasted by the CFSv2 indicate a Florida landfall later this month à la Wilma (2005).


Interestingly 2007 was a strong La Nina year and little formed beyond September. A short lived tropical depression, a short lived tropical storm in December and a cat 1 hurricane late Oct/early Nov. Completely bucked the expectation of a La Nina year.
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#6 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:59 am

al78 wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:With an impending favorable MJO and CCKW (not to mention the elephant in the room, the negative ENSO), I would not bet on an early end to this hurricane season. Every cool-neutral, weak La Nina, or moderate La Nina year since 1995 featured a major hurricane in October. Given how sensitive this hurricane season is to intraseasonal variations, we could easily see an October that is just as active as August or September. The climatological peak of hurricane season is a three-month period from August to October, and we do not leave it until November 1. The hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but CFSv2 is showing potential subtropical development near the Iberian Peninsula during December.

Moreover, steering patterns forecasted by the CFSv2 indicate a Florida landfall later this month à la Wilma (2005).


Interestingly 2007 was a strong La Nina year and little formed beyond September. A short lived tropical depression, a short lived tropical storm in December and a cat 1 hurricane late Oct/early Nov. Completely bucked the expectation of a La Nina year.


From what I remember though, 2007 also had an anomalously cool Atlantic, and aside from the Caribbean it was basically another 2013; it even had a -AMO look by September and October from what I remember. This year is definitely much warmer in terms of overall basin wide sst anomalies than 2007 per se.
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#7 Postby al78 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:33 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
al78 wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:With an impending favorable MJO and CCKW (not to mention the elephant in the room, the negative ENSO), I would not bet on an early end to this hurricane season. Every cool-neutral, weak La Nina, or moderate La Nina year since 1995 featured a major hurricane in October. Given how sensitive this hurricane season is to intraseasonal variations, we could easily see an October that is just as active as August or September. The climatological peak of hurricane season is a three-month period from August to October, and we do not leave it until November 1. The hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but CFSv2 is showing potential subtropical development near the Iberian Peninsula during December.

Moreover, steering patterns forecasted by the CFSv2 indicate a Florida landfall later this month à la Wilma (2005).


Interestingly 2007 was a strong La Nina year and little formed beyond September. A short lived tropical depression, a short lived tropical storm in December and a cat 1 hurricane late Oct/early Nov. Completely bucked the expectation of a La Nina year.


From what I remember though, 2007 also had an anomalously cool Atlantic, and aside from the Caribbean it was basically another 2013; it even had a -AMO look by September and October from what I remember. This year is definitely much warmer in terms of overall basin wide sst anomalies than 2007 per se.


The Atlantic wasn't anomalously cool, it was near average through August and September (https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocea ... /2007.html). Admittedly it was cooler than it is now. There were also two category 5's in 2007 which you wouldn't normally associate with a below-average season, but the season couldn't be bothered beyond the end of September. I recall Phil Klotzbach saying in his seasonal forecast verification report the lack of October activity may have had something to do with the size of the initial disturbances, they couldn't concentrate vorticity and spin up, or something like that.

It remains to be seen what happens this autumn. Currently the Atlantic/Caribbean looks quiet, although that was predicted. There is some chance a favourable MJO signal in the second half of this month could stimulate some TC development which Phil mentioned in his two week forecast.
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#8 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:44 pm

May have to back peddle on my prediction of storms for the rest of the season. It's as if the fountain just shut off abruptly.....We'll see if the season can still squeeze 1 or 2 more storms out by the end of the year.... Probably 50/50 at this point...
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#9 Postby al78 » Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:01 pm

I'd be surprised if nothing formed over the next couple of weeks, although the NHC is not predicting anything to form over the next five days. There can't have been many non El Nino years when the season shut down after 30th September.
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#10 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:02 pm

al78 wrote:I'd be surprised if nothing formed over the next couple of weeks, although the NHC is not predicting anything to form over the next five days. There can't have been many non El Nino years when the season shut down after 30th September.


Only one, 1983. But that was during a -NAO phase and a +PDO phase, both of which strongly do not favor high Atlantic activity regardless of ENSO state. This year the NAO has most definitely been +, and the PDO phase is - (with La Nina as well), so if this season does not show any more NSs, then I think we are going to need to do a lot of retrospective analysis on what happened.
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#11 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:38 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
al78 wrote:I'd be surprised if nothing formed over the next couple of weeks, although the NHC is not predicting anything to form over the next five days. There can't have been many non El Nino years when the season shut down after 30th September.


Only one, 1983. But that was during a -NAO phase and a +PDO phase, both of which strongly do not favor high Atlantic activity regardless of ENSO state. This year the NAO has most definitely been +, and the PDO phase is - (with La Nina as well), so if this season does not show any more NSs, then I think we are going to need to do a lot of retrospective analysis on what happened.


1983 also had other mitigating factors on top of it--lingering Nino conditions given how strong it was (similar to early 2016) as well as volcanic activity the year before that seems to have greatly impacted Atlantic activity. Similarly, 1993 was during one of these periods.
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#12 Postby Nimbus » Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:47 am

Unless this thread gets changed to something more specific like pressures falling in Bay of Campeche we are just talking about random climatological(climo) observation.
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#13 Postby MHC Tracking » Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:21 am

Personally, I believe that 1-2 more storms are possible this season. Despite the favorable MJO conditions which are currently moving into the Atlantic basin, until the upper-level-low moves out, we won't be seeing any Caribbean activity. However, this may not occur until early November, by which time it's nearly too late in the year for much, apart from in a few select years (1932, 1985, 1999, 2001, 2008, 2020). I'm watching the time period arount November 1st-10th, that's when I think our last chance of significant activity is. Other than that, unpredictable subtropical things could occur once the MJO moves into a better position. This season has been strangely MJO dependent, far more than last year's. Though I suppose that's just a measure of how incredible the conditions in 2020 were.
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#14 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:24 pm

MHC Tracking wrote:Personally, I believe that 1-2 more storms are possible this season. Despite the favorable MJO conditions which are currently moving into the Atlantic basin, until the upper-level-low moves out, we won't be seeing any Caribbean activity. However, this may not occur until early November, by which time it's nearly too late in the year for much, apart from in a few select years (1932, 1985, 1999, 2001, 2008, 2020). I'm watching the time period arount November 1st-10th, that's when I think our last chance of significant activity is. Other than that, unpredictable subtropical things could occur once the MJO moves into a better position. This season has been strangely MJO dependent, far more than last year's. Though I suppose that's just a measure of how incredible the conditions in 2020 were.



I'd say 1 more storm MAYBE.... Just as I said at the start of this thread, there have been plenty of seasons where the storm generator just stopped(just like turning off a faucet) in October, and this looks loos like this will be one of those seasons. That's why I always say to be careful when you look at September as the peak of hurricane season and thinking that just because it's the peak that storms are going to continue to form until November. This is inaccurate and many times this is not the case. the season is rather skewed to favor activity BEFORE the peak as opposed to AFTER the peak in many instances....All one has to do is look at the amount of storms before the peak vrs the amount of storms that form after the peak to know that there is an equal balance... Yes, there will be those one off years where you have twice as many many storms that form after the peak compared to before, but that usually only happens when there is not much activity before the peak anyway and that distorts the results...
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#15 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:45 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
MHC Tracking wrote:Personally, I believe that 1-2 more storms are possible this season. Despite the favorable MJO conditions which are currently moving into the Atlantic basin, until the upper-level-low moves out, we won't be seeing any Caribbean activity. However, this may not occur until early November, by which time it's nearly too late in the year for much, apart from in a few select years (1932, 1985, 1999, 2001, 2008, 2020). I'm watching the time period arount November 1st-10th, that's when I think our last chance of significant activity is. Other than that, unpredictable subtropical things could occur once the MJO moves into a better position. This season has been strangely MJO dependent, far more than last year's. Though I suppose that's just a measure of how incredible the conditions in 2020 were.



I'd say 1 more storm MAYBE.... Just as I said at the start of this thread, there have been plenty of seasons where the storm generator just stopped(just like turning off a faucet) in October, and this looks loos like this will be one of those seasons.


Never happened in a Nina year--it's almost a guarantee that we'll see more storms this year, it's just a matter of when, and whether it'll be in time to avert a storm-free October. During the satellite era it's only very instance that it's happened there were clear reasons why the atmosphere had flipped:

1982 was a strong Nino (and on top of that it appears there were likely more storms after September), and the season only saw 3 hurricanes (as I count Beryl as one)
1983 had lingering Nino on top of the previous year having seen one of the most intense volcanic eruptions in modern times; the season also saw only three hurricanes, and only one system even had tropical origin in the first place.
1993 was another Nino, and similar to 1983 there were still lingering volcanic effects, this time from Pinatubo. The season itself produced only four hurricanes prior to this.
2002 yet another Nino year, and that season only saw four hurricanes similar to 1993, and similar to 1983 saw only a few storms of tropical origin.
2006 was the last season that failed to produce anything after September, and this was a rapid onset El Nino.

This could very well be a 1994-type situation where we go October-free and then have a burst of activity in November.
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#16 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:26 am

For the CONUS, maybe.

For the Atlantic basin as a whole, if recent model runs are to tell anything, then the answer is likely no.
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#17 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:50 pm

Hammy wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
MHC Tracking wrote:Personally, I believe that 1-2 more storms are possible this season. Despite the favorable MJO conditions which are currently moving into the Atlantic basin, until the upper-level-low moves out, we won't be seeing any Caribbean activity. However, this may not occur until early November, by which time it's nearly too late in the year for much, apart from in a few select years (1932, 1985, 1999, 2001, 2008, 2020). I'm watching the time period arount November 1st-10th, that's when I think our last chance of significant activity is. Other than that, unpredictable subtropical things could occur once the MJO moves into a better position. This season has been strangely MJO dependent, far more than last year's. Though I suppose that's just a measure of how incredible the conditions in 2020 were.



I'd say 1 more storm MAYBE.... Just as I said at the start of this thread, there have been plenty of seasons where the storm generator just stopped(just like turning off a faucet) in October, and this looks loos like this will be one of those seasons.


Never happened in a Nina year--it's almost a guarantee that we'll see more storms this year, it's just a matter of when, and whether it'll be in time to avert a storm-free October. During the satellite era it's only very instance that it's happened there were clear reasons why the atmosphere had flipped:

1982 was a strong Nino (and on top of that it appears there were likely more storms after September), and the season only saw 3 hurricanes (as I count Beryl as one)
1983 had lingering Nino on top of the previous year having seen one of the most intense volcanic eruptions in modern times; the season also saw only three hurricanes, and only one system even had tropical origin in the first place.
1993 was another Nino, and similar to 1983 there were still lingering volcanic effects, this time from Pinatubo. The season itself produced only four hurricanes prior to this.
2002 yet another Nino year, and that season only saw four hurricanes similar to 1993, and similar to 1983 saw only a few storms of tropical origin.
2006 was the last season that failed to produce anything after September, and this was a rapid onset El Nino.

This could very well be a 1994-type situation where we go October-free and then have a burst of activity in November.



Guess we will have to just agree to disagree Hammy. I think maybe one more storm, maybe in November, but October is quickly coming to a close....I just don't see it getting active all the sudden.....
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#18 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Oct 22, 2021 3:31 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Guess we will have to just agree to disagree Hammy. I think maybe one more storm, maybe in November, but October is quickly coming to a close....I just don't see it getting active all the sudden.....



Maybe. It is hard to imagine at the moment. But things do pop up quite quickly in the tropics. (Or subtropics. :wink: )
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#19 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:37 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Hammy wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:

I'd say 1 more storm MAYBE.... Just as I said at the start of this thread, there have been plenty of seasons where the storm generator just stopped(just like turning off a faucet) in October, and this looks loos like this will be one of those seasons.


Never happened in a Nina year--it's almost a guarantee that we'll see more storms this year, it's just a matter of when, and whether it'll be in time to avert a storm-free October. During the satellite era it's only very instance that it's happened there were clear reasons why the atmosphere had flipped:

1982 was a strong Nino (and on top of that it appears there were likely more storms after September), and the season only saw 3 hurricanes (as I count Beryl as one)
1983 had lingering Nino on top of the previous year having seen one of the most intense volcanic eruptions in modern times; the season also saw only three hurricanes, and only one system even had tropical origin in the first place.
1993 was another Nino, and similar to 1983 there were still lingering volcanic effects, this time from Pinatubo. The season itself produced only four hurricanes prior to this.
2002 yet another Nino year, and that season only saw four hurricanes similar to 1993, and similar to 1983 saw only a few storms of tropical origin.
2006 was the last season that failed to produce anything after September, and this was a rapid onset El Nino.

This could very well be a 1994-type situation where we go October-free and then have a burst of activity in November.



Guess we will have to just agree to disagree Hammy. I think maybe one more storm, maybe in November, but October is quickly coming to a close....I just don't see it getting active all the sudden.....


There's a vast difference between getting active all of a sudden (which I doubt will happen) and the season shutting down early--which would imply no further storms develop after September--which is equally unlikely.

It is highly unlikely that we go the rest of the season without development, as it takes exceptional circumstances well beyond what we are seeing to do so.
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Re: Will the Season End Early Like Some Seasons Have?

#20 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:42 am

Hammy wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Never happened in a Nina year--it's almost a guarantee that we'll see more storms this year, it's just a matter of when, and whether it'll be in time to avert a storm-free October. During the satellite era it's only very instance that it's happened there were clear reasons why the atmosphere had flipped:

1982 was a strong Nino (and on top of that it appears there were likely more storms after September), and the season only saw 3 hurricanes (as I count Beryl as one)
1983 had lingering Nino on top of the previous year having seen one of the most intense volcanic eruptions in modern times; the season also saw only three hurricanes, and only one system even had tropical origin in the first place.
1993 was another Nino, and similar to 1983 there were still lingering volcanic effects, this time from Pinatubo. The season itself produced only four hurricanes prior to this.
2002 yet another Nino year, and that season only saw four hurricanes similar to 1993, and similar to 1983 saw only a few storms of tropical origin.
2006 was the last season that failed to produce anything after September, and this was a rapid onset El Nino.

This could very well be a 1994-type situation where we go October-free and then have a burst of activity in November.



Guess we will have to just agree to disagree Hammy. I think maybe one more storm, maybe in November, but October is quickly coming to a close....I just don't see it getting active all the sudden.....


There's a vast difference between getting active all of a sudden (which I doubt will happen) and the season shutting down early--which would imply no further storms develop after September--which is equally unlikely.

It is highly unlikely that we go the rest of the season without development, as it takes exceptional circumstances well beyond what we are seeing to do so.



Cooling oceanic waters, more ULL's. More fronts coming down....It's not really that hard to fathom only 1 more storm the rest of the season....
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