Disturbed Weather south of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 95L)

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cycloneye
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Disturbed Weather south of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 95L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2021 12:07 pm

Well,is October 28 and normally this part of the basin is closed for tropical development but maybe a small window opens for this area as GFS has been showing development in the past runs and ECMWF shows vorticity. Let's have good discussions about it.

jconsor has a good thread.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1453597005155082240




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Re: Disturbed weather off the African Coast

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 28, 2021 2:55 pm

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Re: Tropical Development near the Cabo Verde Islands?

#3 Postby ChrisH-UK » Fri Oct 29, 2021 4:01 am

Been keeping an eye on this the last few days, GFS showed it first but now models like CMC, ECWMF, ICON etc are more coming in to line with the GFS for a change.

Here's the latest ECWMF run.

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Re: Tropical Development near the Cabo Verde Islands?

#4 Postby zzh » Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:55 am

Image
Closed circulation.
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Re: Tropical Development near the Cabo Verde Islands?

#5 Postby MHC Tracking » Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:04 am

The GFS has been oddly consistent on this, and both the GEFS and Euro ensembles are fairly keen on a quick spinup TD/TS in about 60 hours. I'm getting TD 15 2019 vibes. Wouldn't surprise me to see a 10/20 slapped on this soon.
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Re: Tropical Development near the Cabo Verde Islands?

#6 Postby ChrisH-UK » Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:08 am

Now that the sun is up there is a circulation to the west with convective development, you can see the movement in the white low level clouds. The other development should be in the chaotic area to the east under all of the high level convective grey clouds.

Source Meteosat-11 Band 3 6 hour loop. - https://col.st/UMAZR

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Re: Tropical Development near the Cabo Verde Islands?

#7 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Oct 29, 2021 5:50 pm

If it does, it's a fish.

Season is now closed for GoM and Florida.
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Re: Tropical Development near the Cabo Verde Islands?

#8 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Oct 29, 2021 8:02 pm

zzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/1SV4IYD.png
Closed circulation.

If it can get strong enough winds, it should have a name.
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Re: Tropical Development near the Cabo Verde Islands?

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2021 6:50 am

An area of disturbed weather in the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred
miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of
this system is possible over the next couple of days or so as the
disturbance moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the
middle of next week, the system is forecast to move northward over
cooler waters and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: Tropical Development near the Cabo Verde Islands?

#10 Postby MHC Tracking » Sat Oct 30, 2021 6:56 am

10/20 now, I see. Wouldn't be surprised to get a quick spinup TD/TS out of this, it's very similar to TD 15 2019.
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Re: Disturbed Weather south of Cabo Verde Islands

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:01 am

[img][img]https://i.imgur.com/79zzlJL.gif[/img]Image[/img]
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Re: Disturbed Weather south of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 95L)

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 30, 2021 8:19 am

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