How many named storms will form in November?
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How many named storms will form in November?
Now that it's almost mid-October, I think it's fair to start talking about the coming month.
I will go with 2 with one being a major hurricane and the other only a tropical storm. I also think there will be 4 more in October (2 in the Caribbean/GOM and 2 in subtropics, 2 of them hurricanes, one major) and I think December will have 1 (tropical storm) with a season total of 18 named storms with 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes and an ACE of ~129 along the lines of 2018 and 2019 but definitely not the 2017 or 2020 some of us (including myself) were anticipating.
*Also I don't know how to create a poll so yeah, the options are
- 1 storm
- 2 storms
- 3 storms
- more than 3 (surpassing record)
- none will form
Let's discuss!
I will go with 2 with one being a major hurricane and the other only a tropical storm. I also think there will be 4 more in October (2 in the Caribbean/GOM and 2 in subtropics, 2 of them hurricanes, one major) and I think December will have 1 (tropical storm) with a season total of 18 named storms with 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes and an ACE of ~129 along the lines of 2018 and 2019 but definitely not the 2017 or 2020 some of us (including myself) were anticipating.
*Also I don't know how to create a poll so yeah, the options are
- 1 storm
- 2 storms
- 3 storms
- more than 3 (surpassing record)
- none will form
Let's discuss!
Last edited by Ryxn on Tue Oct 11, 2022 10:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
I think 2. Wouldn't be surprised if it's just 1, but I just have a feeling that due to how delayed (not denied) this season seems compared to other recent seasons, we could see a decently active November
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
I think we'll get one TS in November, probably in the first half of the month
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
wild take... November brings 4 NS, including one monster Cat 4/5, which is actually the last one of the month, happening in Late November as opposed to the first half of the month which is usually the busier half.
Perhaps the 2001 comparison, or 2020 comparison from much earlier, materializes and we get 3 Nov storms and one (or even 2) major like those backloaded years, plus 1 more just to make 2022 even more memorable.
Depending on how busy October gets, we may have a shot at getting up to 19 NS.
Perhaps the 2001 comparison, or 2020 comparison from much earlier, materializes and we get 3 Nov storms and one (or even 2) major like those backloaded years, plus 1 more just to make 2022 even more memorable.
Depending on how busy October gets, we may have a shot at getting up to 19 NS.
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
FireRat wrote:wild take... November brings 4 NS, including one monster Cat 4/5, which is actually the last one of the month, happening in Late November as opposed to the first half of the month which is usually the busier half.
Perhaps the 2001 comparison, or 2020 comparison from much earlier, materializes and we get 3 Nov storms and one (or even 2) major like those backloaded years, plus 1 more just to make 2022 even more memorable.
Depending on how busy October gets, we may have a shot at getting up to 19 NS.
I like the way you think! Aha I'm changing mine to 4 with my intial two late October storms actually forming in early November and then a major hurricane punch around November 20 with another hurricane around the same time. Idk I think we may be in for a record November. I think October gets 3 more storms and December gets nothing, maintaining my 18 storm total.
May: 0 storms
June: 1 storm
July: 2 storms
August: 0 storms
September: 6 storms
October: 5 storms (2 around Oct 19, 1 around Oct 26)
November: 4 storms (2 at within first 2 weeks, 1 around Nov 19, 1 around Nov 29)
December: 0 storms (Nov 29 storm persists into Dec)
I'd rather lose due to being a longshit than to win being sane and safe aha but we'll see which one it is.
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
Ryxn wrote:FireRat wrote:wild take... November brings 4 NS, including one monster Cat 4/5, which is actually the last one of the month, happening in Late November as opposed to the first half of the month which is usually the busier half.
Perhaps the 2001 comparison, or 2020 comparison from much earlier, materializes and we get 3 Nov storms and one (or even 2) major like those backloaded years, plus 1 more just to make 2022 even more memorable.
Depending on how busy October gets, we may have a shot at getting up to 19 NS.
I like the way you think! Aha I'm changing mine to 4 with my intial two late October storms actually forming in early November and then a major hurricane punch around November 20 with another hurricane around the same time. Idk I think we may be in for a record November. I think October gets 3 more storms and December gets nothing, maintaining my 18 storm total.
May: 0 storms
June: 1 storm
July: 2 storms
August: 0 storms
September: 6 storms
October: 5 storms (2 around Oct 19, 1 around Oct 26)
November: 4 storms (2 at within first 2 weeks, 1 around Nov 19, 1 around Nov 29)
December: 0 storms (Nov 29 storm persists into Dec)
I'd rather lose due to being a longshot than to win being sane and safe aha but we'll see which one it is.
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
Ryxn wrote:FireRat wrote:wild take... November brings 4 NS, including one monster Cat 4/5, which is actually the last one of the month, happening in Late November as opposed to the first half of the month which is usually the busier half.
Perhaps the 2001 comparison, or 2020 comparison from much earlier, materializes and we get 3 Nov storms and one (or even 2) major like those backloaded years, plus 1 more just to make 2022 even more memorable.
Depending on how busy October gets, we may have a shot at getting up to 19 NS.
I like the way you think! Aha I'm changing mine to 4 with my intial two late October storms actually forming in early November and then a major hurricane punch around November 20 with another hurricane around the same time. Idk I think we may be in for a record November. I think October gets 3 more storms and December gets nothing, maintaining my 18 storm total.
May: 0 storms
June: 1 storm
July: 2 storms
August: 0 storms
September: 6 storms
October: 5 storms (2 around Oct 19, 1 around Oct 26)
November: 4 storms (2 at within first 2 weeks, 1 around Nov 19, 1 around Nov 29)
December: 0 storms (Nov 29 storm persists into Dec)
I'd rather lose due to being a longshit than to win being sane and safe aha but we'll see which one it is.
Hahaha thanks! Yea I think Nov will definitely be an interesting month and would be very 2022 if we got mayhem at the tail end of the season, so going all in with the 4 lol!
Perhaps October goes into spam mode mid to late month, and then we enter Nov with the 2 systems you predict, then get Shary around Nov 15-20 and get the whopper right after between Nov 15 and Nov 25. In my version, the beast gets named Tobias and is the last one, and of course 2022 saves the biggest one for last ... like 2020 did.
Tobias becomes a C5, and takes a wacky track like Lenny '99 or Kate '85, or heck even 1950's King. Totally taking things to the extreme for this last month's prediction!
Even though the month realistically probably won't be this dramatic, it may still end up being above average.
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- cycloneye
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
Made the poll that will be open for voting until October 31rst at 4:43 AM EDT.
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
I think a baroclinically induced storm out in the Atlantic isn’t out of the question.
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
underthwx wrote:I went with 2.....1 is a lonely number...
I'm going lonely. Just one, and probably only a TS.
Ryxn wrote:I'd rather lose due to being a longshit than to win being sane and safe aha but we'll see which one it is.
I'm sure you meant longshot, but thanks for the laugh! I don't ever remember laughing this hard at 4 in the morning!
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
0. I honestly believe we are done for the season. I don't normally hop on the season is over train until the end of November but just have a feeling we don't see anymore named storms
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
HurricaneEnzo wrote:0. I honestly believe we are done for the season. I don't normally hop on the season is over train until the end of November but just have a feeling we don't see anymore named storms
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Just curious to ask but is there a specific reason why you believe that? I'm just curious as I'm interested to understand if there is anything in particular that you are seeing in terms of why you don't think a storm like a Sebastian 2019 or an Otto 2016 cannot happen at the very least?
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
Welp, at least we now know that the answer will not be zero
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
Category5Kaiju wrote:Welp, at least we now know that the answer will not be zero
Dang, November is having quite the start huh.
If Lisa had delayed just 1 more day, we'd be at 2NS for Nov already... on the 1st
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
Ryxn wrote:FireRat wrote:wild take... November brings 4 NS, including one monster Cat 4/5, which is actually the last one of the month, happening in Late November as opposed to the first half of the month which is usually the busier half.
Perhaps the 2001 comparison, or 2020 comparison from much earlier, materializes and we get 3 Nov storms and one (or even 2) major like those backloaded years, plus 1 more just to make 2022 even more memorable.
Depending on how busy October gets, we may have a shot at getting up to 19 NS.
I like the way you think! Aha I'm changing mine to 4 with my intial two late October storms actually forming in early November and then a major hurricane punch around November 20 with another hurricane around the same time. Idk I think we may be in for a record November. I think October gets 3 more storms and December gets nothing, maintaining my 18 storm total.
May: 0 storms
June: 1 storm
July: 2 storms
August: 0 storms
September: 6 storms
October: 5 storms (2 around Oct 19, 1 around Oct 26)
November: 4 storms (2 at within first 2 weeks, 1 around Nov 19, 1 around Nov 29)
December: 0 storms (Nov 29 storm persists into Dec)
I'd rather lose due to being a longshit than to win being sane and safe aha but we'll see which one it is.
I mean I was way pretty off with October especial in terms of intensity but my November prediction of 4 may pan out. If Lisa formed on November 1, I'd say 4 storms would have been LIKELY. Crazy year...
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
We have 97L that looks like it is a TS already, and future 98L that looks like it wants to scare Florida.
Very abnormal November. Not to mention, who would have thought that we would end up seeing potentially 3 NSs in November? And possibly more?
Very abnormal November. Not to mention, who would have thought that we would end up seeing potentially 3 NSs in November? And possibly more?
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Re: How many named storms will form in November?
Guess my choice of 1 storm will probably age like milk. This season unpredictable.
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