2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[WalterWhite]

Models showing an active EPAC over the next 10-14 days = quiet Caribbean and Gulf. It is quite possible significant threats to the Gulf and Florida are done despite October being a high strike probability month for peninsula Florida. El Niño should exert its influence even more as we head into October.

Maybe not.
https://youtu.be/R6MlFEmLwF8?si=8843uQsomRgcaeTX

I'm really in the "I'll believe when I see it" attitude when it comes the El nino shutting down the Atlantic. Ever since Aug people have been saying on Twitter and even here that the Atlantic will be shutting down soon and it just hasn't happened. Outside a two week slowdown mid September where only Nigel formed, the Atlantic has been very active.

Wind shear has dramatically worsened throughout the Atlantic.

[Category5Kaiju]

Maybe not.
https://youtu.be/R6MlFEmLwF8?si=8843uQsomRgcaeTX

I'm really in the "I'll believe when I see it" attitude when it comes the El nino shutting down the Atlantic. Ever since Aug people have been saying on Twitter and even here that the Atlantic will be shutting down soon and it just hasn't happened. Outside a two week slowdown mid September where only Nigel formed, the Atlantic has been very active.

Wind shear has dramatically worsened throughout the Atlantic.

https://i.postimg.cc/SN48cvh3/wg8shr.gif

Yeah, but it's also not great in the EPAC overall, aside from that favorable pocket off the Mexican coast. Also, you can't really use that one particular snapshot as an indication of overall, long-term basin-wide conditions as wind shear levels and locations always fluctuate. Especially in October and during a season that hasn't really been behaving according to normal standards.

[SFLcane]

Models could start perking up across the Atlantic next week. Stay tuned!

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1708211953062031801

[zzzh]

New Cansips depicts a favorable environment in the Caribbean in Oct. Activity will ramp up once those EPAC storms go away.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1708302164563529912

[SapphireSea]

All of these signals for TCs/SubTCs riding up the EC give me a feeling that if this trough pattern persists, we could see some interesting N'easters this year. CanSIPs is lightly signaling it Dec/Jan. As far as tropics, I think we could see a few SubTCs ride up before the atmospheric temp situation changes.

[SFLcane]

Quite the increase of precipitation in the Caribbean with the new cansips.

Sept vs Oct

[WalterWhite]

The East Pacific so far as a total accumulated cyclone energy of 122.5. The Atlantic has one of 125.0, and this will likely exceed the above-average threshold with Philippe generating more ACE alone. The most recent seasons where both the East Pacific and the North Atlantic had above-average ACE were 2018, 2016, 2011, and 1998. Not that these mean anything given that all of these years had very different setups

[Ianswfl]

Well next Sunday a cold front for me and GFS suggest a couple more fronts after that. Upper 40s along the North FL gulf coast! Gulf water temps will take a BIG hit.

Well, 1985 you had kate in late Nov despite 10 days before lows were around freezing in Tallahassee!

[psyclone]

Well next Sunday a cold front for me and GFS suggest a couple more fronts after that. Upper 40s along the North FL gulf coast! Gulf water temps will take a BIG hit.

Well, 1985 you had kate in late Nov despite 10 days before lows were around freezing in Tallahassee!

Bring on the fronts and dry air. I'm thinking odds are favoring the US being done with cane season. Sand is going through the hourglass and climo is now a headwind. The strong fronts probably would = a miss to the right should something come together in the western Caribbean. Admittedly a bit of a wishcast...but also the most probable at this point too.

[gatorcane]

Posted in the Florida Weather thread but this front, if it is for real, would really put a dent into the NGOM and EGOM SSTs:

[Ianswfl]

Well next Sunday a cold front for me and GFS suggest a couple more fronts after that. Upper 40s along the North FL gulf coast! Gulf water temps will take a BIG hit.

Well, 1985 you had kate in late Nov despite 10 days before lows were around freezing in Tallahassee!

Bring on the fronts and dry air. I'm thinking odds are favoring the US being done with cane season. Sand is going through the hourglass and climo is now a headwind. The strong fronts probably would = a miss to the right should something come together in the western Caribbean. Admittedly a bit of a wishcast...but also the most probable at this point too.

Remember kate 1985? 10 days befire she hit Tallahassee had lows of 33 degrees!! Then less than 2 weeks later she hits mexico beach as a cat2!

So even strong fronts dont end the season if the southern gulf and carribean are still warm enough.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well next Sunday a cold front for me and GFS suggest a couple more fronts after that. Upper 40s along the North FL gulf coast! Gulf water temps will take a BIG hit.

Well, 1985 you had kate in late Nov despite 10 days before lows were around freezing in Tallahassee!

I have given up all hope of anything resembling a reasonable cool down in FL until November, so I doubt anything like the GFS will verify. I fear we'll be stuck with 70F lows until nearly Thanksgiving.

[Ianswfl]

Posted in the Florida Weather thread but this front, if it is for real, would really put a dent into the NGOM and EGOM SSTs:

https://i.postimg.cc/FRDDYcpt/gfs-T2m-seus-fh144-210.gif

Temps will warm back up after it though. However lower 80s water temps. We could get a Nov system due to the Caribbean being so warm. However anything in the north gulf would weaken at landfall. The pattern we have had this year though would favor something coming up though.

By next Wed temps are back into the 90s in the Fl Panhandle. In fact, next Fri the GFS has a high of 95 degrees for Pensacola! Another front after that though. So temps in the Gulf offshore will still be at least 80 degrees.

[WalterWhite]

The Atlantic really does work in mysterious ways. Last year featured an absolute failure of a season (2022) during a La Nina; it could not even reach the 100 ACE mark despite everything going for it. This year, a Strong El Nino, is featuring an outstanding season given the ENSO state; it has already surpassed the 126.1 ACE threshold for above-average activity and still has a realistic chance of becoming hyperactive.

[MarioProtVI]

The Atlantic really does work in mysterious ways. Last year featured an absolute failure of a season (2022) during a La Nina; it could not even reach the 100 ACE mark despite everything going for it. This year, a Strong El Nino, is featuring an outstanding season given the ENSO state; it has already surpassed the 126.1 ACE threshold for above-average activity and still has a realistic chance of becoming hyperactive.

Hyperactivity threshold is impossible at this point barring some 2020 late season repeat (not happening). Philippe’s been underwhelming and it is definitely not becoming the ACE grinder it was though to become. October may produce something but it’s a wildcard especially in El Niño years. I think 130-135 is where we finish.

[WalterWhite]

The Atlantic really does work in mysterious ways. Last year featured an absolute failure of a season (2022) during a La Nina; it could not even reach the 100 ACE mark despite everything going for it. This year, a Strong El Nino, is featuring an outstanding season given the ENSO state; it has already surpassed the 126.1 ACE threshold for above-average activity and still has a realistic chance of becoming hyperactive.

Hyperactivity threshold is impossible at this point barring some 2020 late season repeat (not happening). Philippe’s been underwhelming and it is definitely not becoming the ACE grinder it was though to become. October may produce something but it’s a wildcard especially in El Niño years. I think 130-135 is where we finish.

Hyperactivity is very much possible. The mean OND ACE for 2013-2022 is 34.9. If the Atlantic just adds 30 more ACE for the rest of the season (which is BELOW the mean), we would already have about 156 ACE, which is quite close to the hyperactivity threshold.

[MarioProtVI]

The Atlantic really does work in mysterious ways. Last year featured an absolute failure of a season (2022) during a La Nina; it could not even reach the 100 ACE mark despite everything going for it. This year, a Strong El Nino, is featuring an outstanding season given the ENSO state; it has already surpassed the 126.1 ACE threshold for above-average activity and still has a realistic chance of becoming hyperactive.

Hyperactivity threshold is impossible at this point barring some 2020 late season repeat (not happening). Philippe’s been underwhelming and it is definitely not becoming the ACE grinder it was though to become. October may produce something but it’s a wildcard especially in El Niño years. I think 130-135 is where we finish.

Hyperactivity is very much possible. The mean OND ACE for 2013-2022 is 34.9. If the Atlantic just adds 30 more ACE for the rest of the season (which is BELOW the mean), we would already have about 156 ACE, which is quite close to the hyperactivity threshold.

Octobers for the most part of the last decade sans 2016, 2018 and 2020 have been underwhelming, since the Caribbean doesn’t seem to want to produce any major hurricanes, meaning the best shot is in the subtropics. Just because models say October is favorable doesn’t mean it’ll be active, I’ve see this part happen over and over again - where people expect a decent October and it ends up producing either weak sloppy TSs or short lived C1s in the subtropics, both which generate on average only 3-5 ACE. I don’t expect 2023 to deviate from that especially with El Niño. So no, hyperactivity is dead in the water and people seem to be wishcasting.

[Ianswfl]

Hyperactivity threshold is impossible at this point barring some 2020 late season repeat (not happening). Philippe’s been underwhelming and it is definitely not becoming the ACE grinder it was though to become. October may produce something but it’s a wildcard especially in El Niño years. I think 130-135 is where we finish.

Hyperactivity is very much possible. The mean OND ACE for 2013-2022 is 34.9. If the Atlantic just adds 30 more ACE for the rest of the season (which is BELOW the mean), we would already have about 156 ACE, which is quite close to the hyperactivity threshold.

Octobers for the most part of the last decade sans 2016, 2018 and 2020 have been underwhelming, since the Caribbean doesn’t seem to want to produce any major hurricanes, meaning the best shot is in the subtropics. Just because models say October is favorable doesn’t mean it’ll be active, I’ve see this part happen over and over again - where people expect a decent October and it ends up producing either weak sloppy TSs or short lived C1s in the subtropics, both which generate on average only 3-5 ACE. I don’t expect 2023 to deviate from that especially with El Niño. So no, hyperactivity is dead in the water and people seem to be wishcasting.

The other question is why isn't the Caribbean producing the large in size monster cat4s and cat5s like they did in the past despite being so active and warm the Atl these days?

I mean like your Ivan's, Gilbert's, Wilmas, Dennis, Mitch, Isidore. When we do get a cat4 or cat5 in the Caribbean Sea now they seem to be more compact in size and not the insane 180mph monsters like Mitch.

I mean bombing out in the Caribbean, not waiting until getting into the Gulf like Michael or Ian to reach their peak.

[Teban54]

Just because models say October is favorable doesn’t mean it’ll be active

Sorry, but I think this is basically wishcasting.