Expert forecasts for 2023 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

Verification of the CSU forecasts.



https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-11.pdf

[Teban54]

Verification of the CSU forecasts.

https://i.imgur.com/d5IpyTk.jpg

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-11.pdf

Back when each of the CSU forecasts was up, people were calling them too aggressive and were certain that the season would end up below average. It's incredible how well they verified when it comes to almost every single metric.

[cycloneye]

NOAA has a summary.

The Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms in 2023, which ranks fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023- ... ms-in-year

 https://twitter.com/NOAA/status/1729532521925190021

[al78]

Verification of the CSU forecasts.

https://i.imgur.com/d5IpyTk.jpg

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-11.pdf

Back when each of the CSU forecasts was up, people were calling them too aggressive and were certain that the season would end up below average. It's incredible how well they verified when it comes to almost every single metric.

I thought 160 ACE was too aggressive at the time and I was correct. They overpredicted in July and August although they were still good forecasts. Much better than the UK Met Office which went for a ridiculous >200 ACE.

[Category5Kaiju]

To sum everything up:

Looks like a super warm Atlantic does indeed win over El Nino, at least activity-wise.

[Teban54]

Verification of the CSU forecasts.

https://i.imgur.com/d5IpyTk.jpg

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-11.pdf

Back when each of the CSU forecasts was up, people were calling them too aggressive and were certain that the season would end up below average. It's incredible how well they verified when it comes to almost every single metric.

I thought 160 ACE was too aggressive at the time and I was correct. They overpredicted in July and August although they were still good forecasts. Much better than the UK Met Office which went for a ridiculous >200 ACE.

Umm, I don't think 146 vs 160 ACE is that much of a difference, especially given how unpredictable ACE can be and how many random factors go into it. It probably falls within the standard deviation (not to mention it would likely have been much higher if the Bermuda high wasn't non-existent).

If the season ended with 120 ACE, then yeah we can say the forecast busted too high.

[al78]

Back when each of the CSU forecasts was up, people were calling them too aggressive and were certain that the season would end up below average. It's incredible how well they verified when it comes to almost every single metric.

I thought 160 ACE was too aggressive at the time and I was correct. They overpredicted in July and August although they were still good forecasts. Much better than the UK Met Office which went for a ridiculous >200 ACE.

Umm, I don't think 146 vs 160 ACE is that much of a difference, especially given how unpredictable ACE can be and how many random factors go into it. It probably falls within the standard deviation (not to mention it would likely have been much higher if the Bermuda high wasn't non-existent).

If the season ended with 120 ACE, then yeah we can say the forecast busted too high.

Hence why I added they were still good forecasts, I never said they busted.