#40 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 19, 2023 6:49 am
MarioProtVI wrote:aspen wrote:The Atlantic is at about 107 ACE now. If Nigel becomes a major and the upcoming wave develops into another long-tracking MDR hurricane, we could end the month with 140 ACE. The season could therefore finish off at 145-170 ACE, depending on how much activity we see in Oct-Nov. I’m leaning towards little activity because that El Niño will start behaving like one sooner or later.
This aged pretty badly in a day (Nigel flopping hard and huge downtrend with the AOI). We probably will barely manage to croak above 120 but probably more like 115, which for a strong El Niño is still unprecedented.
Just out of curiosity, why do you think activity will not go higher than 115 ACE? I understand that we're in a robust El Nino, but I also don't really see any screaming signs of the EPAC springing to life with multiple storms (at least on long range models) or the Atlantic all of a sudden shutting down (especially considering the level of warmth in the deep tropics compared to the subtropics, where storms like Margot, Franklin, and Lee have already managed to take heat out of).
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