MarioProtVI wrote:aspen wrote:The Atlantic is at about 107 ACE now. If Nigel becomes a major and the upcoming wave develops into another long-tracking MDR hurricane, we could end the month with 140 ACE. The season could therefore finish off at 145-170 ACE, depending on how much activity we see in Oct-Nov. I’m leaning towards little activity because that El Niño will start behaving like one sooner or later.
This aged pretty badly in a day (Nigel flopping hard and huge downtrend with the AOI). We probably will barely manage to croak above 120 but probably more like 115, which for a strong El Niño is still unprecedented.
We’ll definitely surpass 120 ACE by the end of the month. Sure Nigel is a disappointment, but it should get the basin close to 115 once it wraps up, and then we might get at least two more NS this month. 140 ACE is still on the table if we get even one more long-tracking hurricane.