2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

This is an impressive signal for something…

[DunedinDave]

GFS having a wild happy hour Saturday. Takes a strong cane into Miami.

[SFLcane]

Another impressive signal by the eps bunch of strong members. Will it stick?

[gatorcane]

GFS having a wild happy hour Saturday. Takes a strong cane into Miami.

Might be one of the the crazier Happy Hour GFS runs I have seen in a while. Yeah right GFS not happening :

[OuterBanker]

Lol, cat 2 into Miami and Hatteras mid November. R2D2 and C3PO are more believable.

Gotta admit that it's entertaining though.

And as much a fantasy as Star Wars.

[SFLcane]

Gfs has low pressure developing inside 120 hrs. Icon onboard

[N2FSU]

0z GFS


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[SFLcane]

0z GFShttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20231029/ce5e42f210eb026b28cb9a94df46246f.jpg


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Yup, lots of potential some very warm deep waters in the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

With European and GEFS ensembles onboard I am starting to lean on this not being a ghost storm. This monster Just barely misses South Florida.

[SFLcane]

[ThunderForce]

All this in a supposed strong El Nino year, during November of all months which is when activity is supposed to start winding down.

I don't even know what to say anymore. At this rate we're going to have to wait until January or maybe even February to finally catch a break.

[SFLcane]

That’s one heck of signal..

[CourierPR]

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi alluded to this on his Saturday Summary on Weatherbell Analytics.

[mantis83]

With European and GEFS ensembles onboard I am starting to lean on this not being a ghost storm. This monster Just barely misses South Florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/jSTCx33v/IMG-1410.gif

hopefully the start of an east trend away from florida, if it even forms....0z euro not showing much either

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, the models runs for the area GFS operational / ensembles / Euro ensembles are developing, can now be posted at the new thread highlighted by NHC in Central / SW Caribbean.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p3053463

[wxman57]

There is something wrong with today's 12Z GFS run. Where's the major hurricane in the NW Caribbean at hour 384? I'd throw this run out.

[Weathertracker96]

The GFS is on something again with its 300 hours + hurricane in the eastern Caribbean. But on tropical tidbits, I was surprised to see the 12z GEPS and 12z EPS ensembles long-range still light up a little bit in the central/west Caribbean. I know it means nothing but I surely thought at least the ensembles would calm down as we get deeper into November.

[REDHurricane]

I wouldn't declare the season to be completely over just yet, it looks like there might be a favorable window (even if unlikely) for one more storm to try to develop sometime around 10-14 days out -- something to keep an eye on at the very least

[Hurricane2022]

I know, it's still in the veeery long-range, but I found it interesting. I'd also like to know what the Pro-Mets here think about this.

[Teban54]

I think the only reason why this isn't garnering more discussion is 97L.