2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Weathertracker96]

https://imageshack.com/i/poOHmkQMp
https://imageshack.com/i/pmueHntlp
https://imageshack.com/i/pmaLg8mEp
I know, it's still in the veeery long-range, but I found it interesting. I'd also like to know what the Pro-Mets here think about this.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnBcSiZIp
https://imageshack.com/i/pmBcL0hmp

Is the MJO expected to move into the area around that time possibly enhancing development?

[floridasun]

I think season over November have little system forming shear go up in carribbean only thing that go system is warm water no front have hit area to cool area off yet

[Jr0d]

GFS is doing GFS things again....

The door us closing, however i dont think a late season CAG storm is an unrealistic possibility just unlikely.

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFS can go pound sand… I’m scheduled to be on a cruise to the Bahamas on Freedom of the Seas from November 17 to 20. If that GFS comes true and wrecks my holiday weekend, I’m going to seriously have a problem with it. It would be just my luck that it has been showing phantoms left and right and we haven’t had anything in South Florida all season and then this time it would be right.


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[cheezyWXguy]

The GFS can go pound sand… I’m scheduled to be on a cruise to the Bahamas on Freedom of the Seas from November 17 to 20. If that GFS comes true and wrecks my holiday weekend, I’m going to seriously have a problem with it. It would be just my luck that it has been showing phantoms left and right and we haven’t had anything in South Florida all season and then this time it would be right.

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The amount of false positives in this area recently bodes well for you, but I can’t quite fully ignore it. Gefs has a strong signal for this system too, and there are even a few eps members from 0z that show development in this timeframe but they stay south toward CA. Still, time is running out and it seems really unlikely this would actually pan out. My skepticism is bordering on cynicism at this point.

[Weathertracker96]

The GFS can go pound sand… I’m scheduled to be on a cruise to the Bahamas on Freedom of the Seas from November 17 to 20. If that GFS comes true and wrecks my holiday weekend, I’m going to seriously have a problem with it. It would be just my luck that it has been showing phantoms left and right and we haven’t had anything in South Florida all season and then this time it would be right.

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The amount of false positives in this area recently bodes well for you, but I can’t quite fully ignore it. Gefs has a strong signal for this system too, and there are even a few eps members from 0z that show development in this timeframe but they stay south toward CA. Still, time is running out and it seems really unlikely this would actually pan out. My skepticism is bordering on cynicism at this point.

The Euro is showing a 1008mb low in the CA area towards the end of the run. I don’t know if that would qualify as a possible system or not

[cheezyWXguy]

The GFS can go pound sand… I’m scheduled to be on a cruise to the Bahamas on Freedom of the Seas from November 17 to 20. If that GFS comes true and wrecks my holiday weekend, I’m going to seriously have a problem with it. It would be just my luck that it has been showing phantoms left and right and we haven’t had anything in South Florida all season and then this time it would be right.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The amount of false positives in this area recently bodes well for you, but I can’t quite fully ignore it. Gefs has a strong signal for this system too, and there are even a few eps members from 0z that show development in this timeframe but they stay south toward CA. Still, time is running out and it seems really unlikely this would actually pan out. My skepticism is bordering on cynicism at this point.

The Euro is showing a 1008mb low in the CA area towards the end of the run. I don’t know if that would qualify as a possible system or not

Euro doesn’t run far enough out to really pick it up. Gfs/gefs/eps signals are in the hour 280-360 range, which is far enough out into fantasy land that this shouldn’t really be taken seriously at this point

[Hurricane2022]

https://imageshack.com/i/poOHmkQMp
https://imageshack.com/i/pmueHntlp
https://imageshack.com/i/pmaLg8mEp
I know, it's still in the veeery long-range, but I found it interesting. I'd also like to know what the Pro-Mets here think about this.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnBcSiZIp
https://imageshack.com/i/pmBcL0hmp

Next!

[blp]

Are we going to get one final one... EPS showing some activity including GEFS, GEPS. Personally, I will wait this time for the Ops runs to show something. Let see what happens.

[Weathertracker96]

The GFS/GEFS, GEPS AND EPS still hint at something in the Caribbean. I couldn’t tell if the 12z Euro operational is slowly hinting but interesting to see if something does try to form during the last few weeks of hurricane season.

[REDHurricane]

Ensembles still hinting at possibility of development mid-month, still fantasy land at this point but I'll be watching it over the next few days.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the USA lucked out incredibly well this year. Only had one big storm even though we had a crazy number of storms develop...........Now we will just see what 2024 brings.........See ya all next year.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think the USA lucked out incredibly well this year. Only had one big storm even though we had a crazy number of storms develop...........Now we will just see what 2024 brings.........See ya all next year.

Yeah, it reminded me of 2010 in a lot of ways -- monster storms like Franklin, Idalida*, and Lee but only Imelda hit the USA (and in the most rural part of Florida possible).

[Old-TimeCane]

Yeah, it reminded me of 2010 in a lot of ways -- monster storms like Franklin, Imelda, and Lee but only Imelda hit the USA (and in the most rural part of Florida possible).

I think you meant "Idalia". Imelda was in 2019.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yeah, it reminded me of 2010 in a lot of ways -- monster storms like Franklin, Imelda, and Lee but only Imelda hit the USA (and in the most rural part of Florida possible).

I think you meant "Idalia". Imelda was in 2019.

Apologizes, so many infamous "I" storms that they get mixed up in the brain.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm floored after watching this round of GFS. What a phenomenal mess.

[REDHurricane]

Models in pretty good agreement that something is going to try to spin up in the western Caribbean around 7-10 days out -- likely a slop storm if anything, but either way I'd say that an ensemble consensus on the background pattern at +240 hours is starting to move this out of fantasy land and more into "actually keep an eye on it" territory. Let's see how the Euro trends over the next couple of days though.


{EPS on left, GEFS in middle, GEPS on right}

[wxman57]

GFS remains the only model predicting any western Caribbean storm, as it has done so on countless occasions this season. Generally, this means it is wrong. There may be another area of squalls in the west or SW Caribbean next week that likely moves into Central America. That's what I would expect to happen. Just like with 97L.

[wxman57]

Here's a comparison of today's 12Z GFS & Canadian, along with the 00Z Euro (12Z isn't in yet). See if you can spot the outlier for next Wednesday evening.

[underthwx]

Here's a comparison of today's 12Z GFS & Canadian, along with the 00Z Euro (12Z isn't in yet). See if you can spot the outlier for next Wednesday evening.

http://wxman57.com/images/3models.JPG

Hello Xman, can you repost the image?