2023 TCR's

[ljmac75]

Great report, they really got a perfect measurement with that 54kt 10-minute sustained wind at 10 meters. I do wish they included a figure for the regular ASCAT data to go along with the UHR one for comparison.

[ncforecaster89]

Great report, they really got a perfect measurement with that 54kt 10-minute sustained wind at 10 meters. I do wish they included a figure for the regular ASCAT data to go along with the UHR one for comparison.

That 54 kt ten minute wind equates to a 60 kt one minute value. As such, it’s highly likely Ophelia was a 65 kt hurricane at landfall. Makes little sense to assume that the anemometer was supposedly positioned so precisely that it measured the absolute peak wind contained anywhere within the RMW. Just a 5% adjustment from that “measured” wind velocity correlates to 65 kt.

[cycloneye]

The deadliest of 2023.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1762867213743091898

[Hurricane2022]

Hurricane Calvin is up as well... Pressure down 2 mbars
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032023_Calvin.pdf

[DioBrando]

Hurricane Calvin is up as well... Pressure down 2 mbars
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032023_Calvin.pdf

Calvin: 21 pages, not abbreviated
Jova: 16 pages, abbreviated

[Hurricane2022]

Hurricane Calvin is up as well... Pressure down 2 mbars
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP032023_Calvin.pdf

Calvin: 21 pages, not abbreviated
Jova: 16 pages, abbreviated

I think its because Calvin affected directly Hawaii

[ljmac75]

We've got just 4 TCRs left in the Atlantic, Franklin, Lee, Phillipe, and Tammy
5 left in the Pacific, Dora, Lidia, Norma, Otis, and Pilar
Since there's not that many left I might as well guess the order in which they'll be released. In the Atlantic: Tammy then Phillipe then Franklin then Lee. For the Pacific, I'm gonna guess that it will be Pilar, Norma, Lidia, Otis, Dora. I'm putting Dora last due to the super long track and the need to address the (somewhat overblown) effect it had on the Hawaiian wildfires last year. I could try to guess other stuff like how many figures will be included in each report but that's even sillier than the order.

[DioBrando]

We've got just 4 TCRs left in the Atlantic, Franklin, Lee, Phillipe, and Tammy
5 left in the Pacific, Dora, Lidia, Norma, Otis, and Pilar
Since there's not that many left I might as well guess the order in which they'll be released. In the Atlantic: Tammy then Phillipe then Franklin then Lee. For the Pacific, I'm gonna guess that it will be Pilar, Norma, Lidia, Otis, Dora. I'm putting Dora last due to the super long track and the need to address the (somewhat overblown) effect it had on the Hawaiian wildfires last year. I could try to guess other stuff like how many figures will be included in each report but that's even sillier than the order.

I predict this order:

Pacific:

Pilar
Norma
Lidia
Dora (first half)
Otis
Dora (second half in 2050)


Atlantic:

Philippe
Tammy
Franklin
Lee

[Hurricane2022]

We've got just 4 TCRs left in the Atlantic, Franklin, Lee, Phillipe, and Tammy
5 left in the Pacific, Dora, Lidia, Norma, Otis, and Pilar
Since there's not that many left I might as well guess the order in which they'll be released. In the Atlantic: Tammy then Phillipe then Franklin then Lee. For the Pacific, I'm gonna guess that it will be Pilar, Norma, Lidia, Otis, Dora. I'm putting Dora last due to the super long track and the need to address the (somewhat overblown) effect it had on the Hawaiian wildfires last year. I could try to guess other stuff like how many figures will be included in each report but that's even sillier than the order.

I predict this order:

Pacific:

Pilar
Norma
Lidia
Dora (first half)
Otis
Dora (second half in 2050)


Atlantic:

Philippe
Tammy
Franklin
Lee

I agree with you, specially in the second half of Dora TCR. So sad CPHC is this mess, even in 2024.

[Teban54]

I'm putting Dora last due to the super long track and the need to address the (somewhat overblown) effect it had on the Hawaiian wildfires last year. I could try to guess other stuff like how many figures will be included in each report but that's even sillier than the order.

I wonder if we will even see such discussions for the NHC's report, as it's firmly within the CPHC's area of responsibility, and thus those sections may end up needing to be populated by CPHC forecasters (aka taking an eternity). For reference, Calvin's TCR has minimal mentions of its impacts in Hawaii, even though it had more direct impacts to Hawaii than Dora did.

[ljmac75]

I'm putting Dora last due to the super long track and the need to address the (somewhat overblown) effect it had on the Hawaiian wildfires last year. I could try to guess other stuff like how many figures will be included in each report but that's even sillier than the order.

I wonder if we will even see such discussions for the NHC's report, as it's firmly within the CPHC's area of responsibility, and thus those sections may end up needing to be populated by CPHC forecasters (aka taking an eternity). For reference, Calvin's TCR has minimal mentions of its impacts in Hawaii, even though it had more direct impacts to Hawaii than Dora did.

I completely forgot about that part. We will get the CPHC part of the report for Calvin in 2025, and the report for Dora in 2026. Thinking of the CPHC reminds me of the link at the bottom of the "Other Archives" page on the NHC site. It's supposed to go to the "Central North Pacific Hurricane History" and instead it just goes to the CPHC outlook page. I think it's been like that for a few years now.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm putting Dora last due to the super long track and the need to address the (somewhat overblown) effect it had on the Hawaiian wildfires last year. I could try to guess other stuff like how many figures will be included in each report but that's even sillier than the order.

I wonder if we will even see such discussions for the NHC's report, as it's firmly within the CPHC's area of responsibility, and thus those sections may end up needing to be populated by CPHC forecasters (aka taking an eternity). For reference, Calvin's TCR has minimal mentions of its impacts in Hawaii, even though it had more direct impacts to Hawaii than Dora did.

And it is worth remembering that the CPHC has not yet included its part in the TCR for Hurricane Darby '22, which was published by the NHC exactly 1 year and 3 days ago...
So...I think it's best not to create expectations for the CPHC to publish its part of Dora's TCR until atleast mid-2026 (as they also took a long time to deliver the TCRs for the Central Pacific Hurricanes that occurred between 2014 and 2016... and there was a TCR that It took 3 years to be published, if I'm not mistaken)

[Teban54]

I'm putting Dora last due to the super long track and the need to address the (somewhat overblown) effect it had on the Hawaiian wildfires last year. I could try to guess other stuff like how many figures will be included in each report but that's even sillier than the order.

I wonder if we will even see such discussions for the NHC's report, as it's firmly within the CPHC's area of responsibility, and thus those sections may end up needing to be populated by CPHC forecasters (aka taking an eternity). For reference, Calvin's TCR has minimal mentions of its impacts in Hawaii, even though it had more direct impacts to Hawaii than Dora did.

And it is worth remembering that the CPHC has not yet included its part in the TCR for Hurricane Darby '22, which was published by the NHC exactly 1 year and 3 days ago...
So...I think it's best not to create expectations for the CPHC to publish its part of Dora's TCR until atleast mid-2026 (as they also took a long time to deliver the TCRs for the Central Pacific Hurricanes that occurred between 2014 and 2016... and there was a TCR that It took 3 years to be published, if I'm not mistaken)

FWIW:

• Iselle 2014's report was updated in June 2018
• Ignacio 2015's report was updated in August 2018
• Iune 2015's report was completed in April 2018
• Kilo 2015's report was completed in October 2018
• Darby and Madeline 2016's reports were updated in March 2019
• Celia 2016's report was updated in June 2019

Granted, these are some of the worst cases. The CPHC reports after the extremely active 2014-18 period generally didn't take as long as 3 years, but it was still common for reports to take 2 years.

[DioBrando]

I wonder if we will even see such discussions for the NHC's report, as it's firmly within the CPHC's area of responsibility, and thus those sections may end up needing to be populated by CPHC forecasters (aka taking an eternity). For reference, Calvin's TCR has minimal mentions of its impacts in Hawaii, even though it had more direct impacts to Hawaii than Dora did.

And it is worth remembering that the CPHC has not yet included its part in the TCR for Hurricane Darby '22, which was published by the NHC exactly 1 year and 3 days ago...
So...I think it's best not to create expectations for the CPHC to publish its part of Dora's TCR until atleast mid-2026 (as they also took a long time to deliver the TCRs for the Central Pacific Hurricanes that occurred between 2014 and 2016... and there was a TCR that It took 3 years to be published, if I'm not mistaken)

FWIW:

• Iselle 2014's report was updated in June 2018
• Ignacio 2015's report was updated in August 2018
• Iune 2015's report was completed in April 2018
• Kilo 2015's report was completed in October 2018
• Darby and Madeline 2016's reports were updated in March 2019
• Celia 2016's report was updated in June 2019

Granted, these are some of the worst cases. The CPHC reports after the extremely active 2014-18 period generally didn't take as long as 3 years, but it was still common for reports to take 2 years.

dora came out lol
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052023_Dora.pdf

[Hurricane2022]

And it is worth remembering that the CPHC has not yet included its part in the TCR for Hurricane Darby '22, which was published by the NHC exactly 1 year and 3 days ago...
So...I think it's best not to create expectations for the CPHC to publish its part of Dora's TCR until atleast mid-2026 (as they also took a long time to deliver the TCRs for the Central Pacific Hurricanes that occurred between 2014 and 2016... and there was a TCR that It took 3 years to be published, if I'm not mistaken)

FWIW:

• Iselle 2014's report was updated in June 2018
• Ignacio 2015's report was updated in August 2018
• Iune 2015's report was completed in April 2018
• Kilo 2015's report was completed in October 2018
• Darby and Madeline 2016's reports were updated in March 2019
• Celia 2016's report was updated in June 2019

Granted, these are some of the worst cases. The CPHC reports after the extremely active 2014-18 period generally didn't take as long as 3 years, but it was still common for reports to take 2 years.

dora came out lol

Yes. Now up to 130 kt/939 mb (EPAC Peak).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP052023_Dora.pdf

[ljmac75]

Well, my guessed order wasn't very accurate. Technically the CPHC part hasn't been released though, so maybe I should just claim that I originally meant both parts when I made my list in order to save face. I notice that this one isn't listed as an abbreviated report, though I don't remember any watches or warnings for it (I would presume it's related to the wildfire thing).

[Teban54]

CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS
There were no reports of damage or casualties3 directly caused by Dora. The hurricane
was indirectly linked to the catastrophic wildfires in Maui, Hawaii. There were some indications
that Dora’s passage to the south tightened the pressure gradient and enhanced the low-level
trade winds across the Hawaiian Islands. Additional information will be provided by the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center in an updated version of this report.

Here we go, gotta wait a year or more to see what the CPHC think regarding Dora's effects on the Hawaii wildfires.

[zzzh]

Otis is out

[cycloneye]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP182023_Otis.pdf

Excerpts of the Otis report:

It is estimated that Otis made landfall in Acapulco around 0645 UTC as
a 140-kt category 5 hurricane.


ber, peaking at T7.6/158 kt from 0210–0240 UTC that day. These
numbers were consistent with the special subjective Dvorak classifications that yielded data-T
numbers of T7.0/140 kt or higher in real time. The peak intensity of Otis at 0300 UTC 25 October
marked the end of an historic period of RI in which Otis strengthened by an estimated 90 kt in just
21 h. This rate of strengthening is only bested in the eastern Pacific basin records by Hurricane
Patricia2
, which strengthened by 105 kt in a 24-h period.
No reconnaissance data was available at the estimated time of Otis’ peak intensity.
However, aircraft data earlier that day indicated that the conventional objective and subjective
satellite estimates late on 24 October significantly underestimated the true intensity of Otis due to
the constraints of the Dvorak technique. The flight-level and SFMR wind data from the aircraft
indicate that Otis likely reached major hurricane intensity (100 kt) by 1800 UTC 24 October.
Meanwhile, the corresponding objective and subjective intensity estimates at that time ranged
between 60 kt and 90 kt. Other datasets support the assessment that Otis was consistently
stronger than indicated by conventional satellite estimates. An analysis of ASCAT Ultra High
Resolution (UHR) data from 1603 UTC 24 October (not shown) by the NOAA/NESDIS Center for
Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) yielded a peak wind estimate of 113–132 kt. Also,
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data (Fig. 6) from 0052 UTC 25 October showed a peak wind of
128 kt. While the UHR ASCAT and SAR datasets are still being evaluated for their utility in
estimating the peak winds of a tropical cyclone, both retrievals are significantly higher than the
constrained Dvorak intensity estimates at those times. These datasets reinforce the notion that
the conventional satellite estimates were lagging the strengthening winds of Otis during the
extreme RI period. The estimated minimum central pressure of 922 mb is based on the KnaffZehr-Courtney (KZC) pressure-wind relationship

[DioBrando]

Otis is out

Imagine Otis coming out before Lidia