2023 TCR's

[DioBrando]

when might Idalia and Otis come out

There's no way for any of us to know an exact date, but in previous years (with the notable exception of 2020), reports for hurricanes hitting the US seem to come out mainly from mid February to early April. Reports for major hurricanes have been coming out later in the past few years (Ian, Michael, and Ida all had reports that came out in April) but Idalia's impact was relatively minor for a major hurricane in the US so it might come out relatively early. I have no idea how long Otis might take. The report for Patricia, which occurred around the same time of year and shares some similarities actually came out in early February of 2016, but Patricia did not hit near a major city, unlike Otis.

Also, Jova is up: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP112023_Jova.pdf

Of course, no significant upgrade

...and 14E is up as well.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142 ... teen-E.pdf

What should Jova have been? hesitant to change?

[MarioProtVI]

There's no way for any of us to know an exact date, but in previous years (with the notable exception of 2020), reports for hurricanes hitting the US seem to come out mainly from mid February to early April. Reports for major hurricanes have been coming out later in the past few years (Ian, Michael, and Ida all had reports that came out in April) but Idalia's impact was relatively minor for a major hurricane in the US so it might come out relatively early. I have no idea how long Otis might take. The report for Patricia, which occurred around the same time of year and shares some similarities actually came out in early February of 2016, but Patricia did not hit near a major city, unlike Otis.

Also, Jova is up: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP112023_Jova.pdf

Of course, no significant upgrade

...and 14E is up as well.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142 ... teen-E.pdf

What should Jova have been? hesitant to change?

It should’ve been at least 150 kt. Satellite estimates supported it and NHC even admitted it in the TCR but deflected to neglect them because of stupid constraints.

[Hurricane2022]

Of course, no significant upgrade

...and 14E is up as well.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142 ... teen-E.pdf

What should Jova have been? hesitant to change?

It should’ve been at least 150 kt. Satellite estimates supported it and NHC even admitted it in the TCR but deflected to neglect them because of stupid constraints.

"The peak intensity of 140 kt at 0000 UTC through 0600 UTC 7 September is supported
by subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB."


"While satellite intensity estimates continued
to rise or were steady after the peak, this appears to be an artifact of the satellite classification
constraints causing the estimates to lag during to the storm’s rapid intensification."

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[DioBrando]

Of course, no significant upgrade

...and 14E is up as well.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142 ... teen-E.pdf

What should Jova have been? hesitant to change?

It should’ve been at least 150 kt. Satellite estimates supported it and NHC even admitted it in the TCR but deflected to neglect them because of stupid constraints.

what about the pressure

[DioBrando]

What should Jova have been? hesitant to change?

It should’ve been at least 150 kt. Satellite estimates supported it and NHC even admitted it in the TCR but deflected to neglect them because of stupid constraints.

"The peak intensity of 140 kt at 0000 UTC through 0600 UTC 7 September is supported
by subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB."
https://imageshack.com/i/poNquS9Cj
https://imageshack.com/i/pnjnYFMcj
"While satellite intensity estimates continued
to rise or were steady after the peak, this appears to be an artifact of the satellite classification
constraints causing the estimates to lag during to the storm’s rapid intensification."

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

doesn't seem convincing

[DioBrando]

What should Jova have been? hesitant to change?

It should’ve been at least 150 kt. Satellite estimates supported it and NHC even admitted it in the TCR but deflected to neglect them because of stupid constraints.

"The peak intensity of 140 kt at 0000 UTC through 0600 UTC 7 September is supported
by subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB."
https://imageshack.com/i/poNquS9Cj
https://imageshack.com/i/pnjnYFMcj
"While satellite intensity estimates continued
to rise or were steady after the peak, this appears to be an artifact of the satellite classification
constraints causing the estimates to lag during to the storm’s rapid intensification."

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

so the arrows mean the true intensity was actually higher but they didn't want to change it

[Hurricane2022]

It should’ve been at least 150 kt. Satellite estimates supported it and NHC even admitted it in the TCR but deflected to neglect them because of stupid constraints.

"The peak intensity of 140 kt at 0000 UTC through 0600 UTC 7 September is supported
by subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB."
https://imageshack.com/i/poNquS9Cj
https://imageshack.com/i/pnjnYFMcj
"While satellite intensity estimates continued
to rise or were steady after the peak, this appears to be an artifact of the satellite classification
constraints causing the estimates to lag during to the storm’s rapid intensification."

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

so the arrows mean the true intensity was actually higher but they didn't want to change it

Maybe yes, they may have more reasons not to do a major upgrade, but if that was the case they would have said so in the TCR.
But that's okay, the world will not plunge into an apocalypse because of this TCR, as there will still be many hurricanes of this intensity that will happen in the future.

[zzzh]

140kt

[DioBrando]

140kt

what’s the giggling about

[ljmac75]

I don't know if this is the best place for it, but they just updated HURDAT2 to include radius of maximum wind for a bunch of hurricanes that hit the US (Charley, Laura, Irene, Hugo etc). I'm not sure if it's all of them, I haven't checked too carefully. I think instead of arguing and speculating about how strong a hurricane was or what the TCRs will say about it, maybe we should speculate about what the radius of maximum wind will be. What does everyone think it will be for Idalia?

[DioBrando]

I don't know if this is the best place for it, but they just updated HURDAT2 to include radius of maximum wind for a bunch of hurricanes that hit the US (Charley, Laura, Irene, Hugo etc). I'm not sure if it's all of them, I haven't checked too carefully. I think instead of arguing and speculating about how strong a hurricane was or what the TCRs will say about it, maybe we should speculate about what the radius of maximum wind will be. What does everyone think it will be for Idalia?

downgrade to 110kt

[ljmac75]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092023_Hilary.pdf

Hilary "downgraded" to a post-tropical low in Southern California. Peak intensity lowered to 120 kts.

[DioBrando]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092023_Hilary.pdf

Hilary "downgraded" to a post-tropical low in Southern California. Peak intensity lowered to 120 kts.

inb4 Idalia gets downgraded to a Category 3 with all the recent reports

[CrazyC83]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092023_Hilary.pdf

Hilary "downgraded" to a post-tropical low in Southern California. Peak intensity lowered to 120 kts.

inb4 Idalia gets downgraded to a Category 3 with all the recent reports

That seems quite likely IMO, and I'd set the landfall intensity of Idalia at 100 kt (operational was 110 kt).

Very interesting analysis of Hilary. I had thought it moved back offshore or that second Baja landfall was incorrect, but they analyzed it as a new low having formed.

[DioBrando]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP092023_Hilary.pdf

Hilary "downgraded" to a post-tropical low in Southern California. Peak intensity lowered to 120 kts.

inb4 Idalia gets downgraded to a Category 3 with all the recent reports

That seems quite likely IMO, and I'd set the landfall intensity of Idalia at 100 kt (operational was 110 kt).

Do these two look like they're the same intensity?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

inb4 Idalia gets downgraded to a Category 3 with all the recent reports

That seems quite likely IMO, and I'd set the landfall intensity of Idalia at 100 kt (operational was 110 kt).

Do these two look like they're the same intensity?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/23/Idalia_2023-08-30_0715Z.jpg/440px-Idalia_2023-08-30_0715Z.jpg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/30/Humberto_2019-09-18_1535Z.jpg/440px-Humberto_2019-09-18_1535Z.jpg

Wasn't Humberto influenced by a sting jet-like feature not long before it started undergoing extratropical transition that was the cause for those 110kt readings?

[ElectricStorm]

inb4 Idalia gets downgraded to a Category 3 with all the recent reports

That seems quite likely IMO, and I'd set the landfall intensity of Idalia at 100 kt (operational was 110 kt).

Do these two look like they're the same intensity?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/23/Idalia_2023-08-30_0715Z.jpg/440px-Idalia_2023-08-30_0715Z.jpg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/30/Humberto_2019-09-18_1535Z.jpg/440px-Humberto_2019-09-18_1535Z.jpg

It's not just about looks. The actual data from recon for Idalia didn't really support 115kts

[DioBrando]

That seems quite likely IMO, and I'd set the landfall intensity of Idalia at 100 kt (operational was 110 kt).

Do these two look like they're the same intensity?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/23/Idalia_2023-08-30_0715Z.jpg/440px-Idalia_2023-08-30_0715Z.jpg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/30/Humberto_2019-09-18_1535Z.jpg/440px-Humberto_2019-09-18_1535Z.jpg

Wasn't Humberto influenced by a sting jet-like feature not long before it started undergoing extratropical transition that was the cause for those 110kt readings?

Without that sting like feature what peak would this have been

[DioBrando]

That seems quite likely IMO, and I'd set the landfall intensity of Idalia at 100 kt (operational was 110 kt).

Do these two look like they're the same intensity?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/23/Idalia_2023-08-30_0715Z.jpg/440px-Idalia_2023-08-30_0715Z.jpg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/30/Humberto_2019-09-18_1535Z.jpg/440px-Humberto_2019-09-18_1535Z.jpg

It's not just about looks. The actual data from recon for Idalia didn't really support 115kts

105kts?

[Yellow Evan]

123 FL 116 SFMR justifies 115 knots well enough.