Low Pressure / Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde (is Invest 95L)

[abajan]

Luis and zzzh are focusing on what looks to me like a clearcut circulation based on satellite loops and ASCAT, which is near 11N, 38-39W. However, the NHC has (as shown by the TWO posted just above this) the yellow "X" near 11N, 30W (right or wrong, NHC is not focusing on the same specific area):

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

All the models that do develop this show the circulation at 38W consolidating as well.

Meanwhile, the circ is now covered by a tiny bit of convection:
https://i.postimg.cc/zG2stLhV/90088070.gif

The models are kind of unusual with how they develop this. As Luis said and you seem to be implying, the LLC now near 38W retrogrades a little E over the next 24 hours while energy from a AEW now near 30W moves W and reaches the LLC tomorrow. They sort of collide. That must be why the yellow "X" in the TWO is at 30W. It is on the AEW rather than on the LLC. Then some models develop the LLC more.

The AEW now near 30W is mentioned in the latest TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with its axis stretching from near 19N28W to 05N31W. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 07N to 10N.

The convection has been expanding. Should be interesting to see if it continues to do so (and possibly intensify) as Dmax approaches before daybreak at that location tomorrow.

[Jr0d]

Well, the 12 Euro ensembles has a nasty member with a cat4 heading right for Dade County after going over Haiti and bombs out over the hot waters in the Bahamas.

While highly unlikely, this is a worst case scenario of those of us in S.Florida, the Florida Keys. This system if it develops wil likely stay weak, however with the water being so hot, if a vigorous wave can stay together until it approaches the Bahamas, then find favorable conditions, it could really pop quick. Especially if the storm is small in size. Historically many of our worst storms have been relatively small but intensified as they were making landfall.

[Spacecoast]

Well, the 12 Euro ensembles has a nasty member with a cat4 heading right for Dade County after going over Haiti and bombs out over the hot waters in the Bahamas.

While highly unlikely, this is a worst case scenario of those of us in S.Florida, the Florida Keys. This system if it develops wil likely stay weak, however with the water being so hot, if a vigorous wave can stay together until it approaches the Bahamas, then find favorable conditions, it could really pop quick. Especially if the storm is small in size. Historically many of our worst storms have been relatively small but intensified as they were making landfall.

That member ends up with MH riding the East coast of Fl, doing a loop off the Georgia coast, then heads towards Jax, Fl.
There's only ~2-4% chance of this occurring....
Glass half full, I prefer to think 96% chance this doesn't happen.

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%/30%.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure has formed within the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is also interacting with a
tropical wave located farther east, and their combination is
producing an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic. While environmental
conditions appear only somewhat favorable due to the proximity of
dry air to the north, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week, as it begins to move westward
across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[abajan]

Up to 10%/30%.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure has formed within the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is also interacting with a
tropical wave located farther east, and their combination is
producing an elongated area of showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic. While environmental
conditions appear only somewhat favorable due to the proximity of
dry air to the north, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week, as it begins to move westward
across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/WxwbF0b.png

Indeed. I'd expected those increases in formation chances to be posted 6 hours earlier, in the previous outlook. And I see they've also shifted the area of interest from the wave to the circulation you earlier indicated. Good catch!

[BobHarlem]

Invest 95L?
AL, 95, 2023072100, , BEST, 0, 113N, 387W, 25, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, al752023 to al952023,

[tolakram]

Invest 95L?
AL, 95, 2023072100, , BEST, 0, 113N, 387W, 25, 1014, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, SPAWNINVEST, al752023 to al952023,

You had your chance to start the topic

Invest 95L - https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 9&t=123487