Tropical Wave over the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 96L)

[Teban54]

Yep looks like the GFS has come to its senses and has caved to the Euro.

What? Euro wasn't even showing any development at all, even in the subtropics, until just a handful runs ago.

[CyclonicFury]

Rather than GFS "dropping" the system, it seems to be trending to a more reasonable solution. I wouldn't be surprised to see this develop into a broad, disorganized tropical storm. May have an outside chance at becoming a hurricane if it gets a favorable trough interaction at high latitudes.

Regardless, I don't think this system not getting very strong is necessarily a sign that the MDR will be unusually hostile all season, it's still only July 27th and the real peak season doesn't begin for a few more weeks.

[abajan]

No change in formation chances:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located several hundred miles to the southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Conditions are expected to be favorable for
gradual development of this system in a few days, and a tropical
depression could form late this weekend or early next week while
the system moves generally west-northwestward over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch



The spin is evident in this loop:

[LarryWx]

Will this be a July storm, an August storm, or no storm at all? We'll know the answer next week!

[gatorcane]

Yep looks like the GFS has come to its senses and has caved to the Euro.

What? Euro wasn't even showing any development at all, even in the subtropics, until just a handful runs ago.

It doesn’t show development (maybe some weak development) on the 12Z. Models aside, the wave looks weak and there is a lot of dry air ahead so it makes sense that chances are it doesn’t develop in the next 7 days.

[Teban54]

18z GFS slightly stronger with a very similar evolution as 12z. Looks like the weakening trend of recent GFS runs has ended or at least on pause.

[Sciencerocks]

[abajan]

As expected, there's still no change in formation chances:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located several hundred miles to the southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to
be favorable for gradual development of this system in a few days,
and a tropical depression could form early next week while the
system moves generally west-northwestward over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Kelly/Beven

[Teban54]

Up to 10/50.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower activity has increased since yesterday in association with a
tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands
and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to
be favorable for gradual development of this system in a few days,
and a tropical depression could form early next week while the
system moves generally west-northwestward over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Recent GFS and CMC runs have been similar in terms of intensity. GEFS still has almost all members develop it. The only EPS run with weak support was 12z, but both 6z and 18z EPS have rather strong support for development as the wave starts turning north.

[abajan]

[tropicwatch]

The high pressure over the Atlantic must be forecast to weaken for the NHC to have development shaded area north of the Islands. Right now though it looks like it will continue westward.

[abajan]

The high pressure over the Atlantic must be forecast to weaken for the NHC to have development shaded area north of the Islands. Right now though it looks like it will continue westward.

It's not really forecast to weaken but shift eastward, allowing the system to curve towards the north along the western side of the high. The GFS and Euro models both show this. It's also mentioned in the video by Meteorologist Brian Shields I shared yesterday.

[wxman57]

Likely "fish" storm Emily next week. No Caribbean or U.S. threat. I think this type of track may be common this season. Sometimes, though, the NE Caribbean won't be so lucky.

[tropicwatch]

Surprised it is not tagged as an Invest yet.

[abajan]

Surprised it is not tagged as an Invest yet.

That'll probably happen sometime later this morning.

[ouragans]

Surprised it is not tagged as an Invest yet.

Needs at least 10% at 48 hrs to have an Invest, but generally, it's at least 20%

[ElectricStorm]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser
Antilles has increased since yesterday. Environmental conditions
are expected to be favorable for additional gradual development of
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form early next week while the system moves generally
west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[abajan]

[abajan]

Link: https://youtu.be/l6aerZnH40g

[LarryWx]

It is now looking likely that July of 2023 will join 1997 to make history for an already moderate El Niño. Currently, the only El Nino with a +1.0+ JJA ONI having 2+ July storms (based on time of TCG) on record is 1997, which had three.
The 0Z Euro was the strongest run yet and now the 6Z Euro is even stronger as of the end of its run at hour 90.