Tropical Wave over the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 96L)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is located south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some
development of this system is possible later this week and into the
weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Teban54]

Current ensemble support for the wave:

• 12z GEFS: At least 16 members (52%) show some development, with 8 members showing a hurricane. All recurves before the islands.
• 6z GEFS: 11 members (35%) show some development, with 6 members showing a hurricane. Most are recurves, with 3 members heading into the Caribbean and dissipating there.
• 0z GEFS: At leats 18 members (58%) show some development, with 11 members showing a hurricane. Most are recurves, but 2 members take the Mona Passage (both Hs) and hit SE Bahamas; no CONUS threats.
• 6z EPS: At the end of the run (144 hr), at least 28 members (55%) show some development or at least a low.
• 0z EPS: At least 29 members (57%) show some development, with 6 members showing a hurricane. Almost all are recurves, but one member heads WNW east of the Bahamas.

There may be some undercounting for Euro ensembles, as they're hard to see on the map.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS is still the huge outlier. Pretty much everything else has a wave or perhaps a weak TD

[SFLcane]

GFS is still the huge outlier. Pretty much everything else has a wave or perhaps a weak TD

NHC going with that huge outlier for now.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1683904041695182852

[cycloneye]

Is a very large wave that covers various longitudes from south of Cabo Verde to just inland of West Africa.

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS: Day 7.5


...and the 12z EPS: (Day 7)


Comparing the two 12z ens tracks, they are not dissimilar..
12z GEFS (small black sq is GFS operational)

12z EPS (small black sq is operational)

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1683905645781880832



It appears that the key to development is whether this wave can slow down and also avoid getting strung out by the upper-level low.

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1683905645781880832?s=20
It appears that the key to development is whether this wave can slow down and also avoid getting strung out by the upper-level low.

Also will be important where the low pressure forms in terms of latitude. The more south, it will be better for it.

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1683905645781880832?s=20
It appears that the key to development is whether this wave can slow down and also avoid getting strung out by the upper-level low.

Also will be important where the low pressure forms in terms of latitude. The more south, it will be better for it.

Not common to see the Euro move a shallow TW off Africa and recurve that sharply in the central Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

GFS hasn't been able to string consecutive runs with this system. Let's see if it does so at 18z.

[Blown Away]

GFS hasn't been able to string consecutive runs with this system. Let's see if it does so at 18z.

GFS is wild going from Cat 4 to TW in one run... I do think the 06Z was S and got tangled in the big islands and couldn't recover.

[Blown Away]

Not impossible, but the west bias Euro/Icon both show a shallow TW moving quickly across the Central Atlantic at a @WNW track and then recurve pretty sharply @60-65W. IMO not that common to see these models move a shallow TW at a fast clip that far north in the Central Atlantic. I think we will see the 7 day cone expand a little SW over time. JMHO

[cycloneye]

GFS hasn't been able to string consecutive runs with this system. Let's see if it does so at 18z.

Repeats development at 18z.

[cycloneye]

I dont post after 240 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS Emily is such a flirt... Skirts practically every piece of land from the Virgin Islands all the way to past the Outer Banks and doesn't appear to make landfall anywhere. Interesting days ahead.

[Iceresistance]

Crap, I'm going to be in DC when this is coming...

[Kingarabian]

GFS hasn't been able to string consecutive runs with this system. Let's see if it does so at 18z.

Repeats development at 18z.

https://i.imgur.com/0Ck7A2l.gif

Now we wait the 00z run and see if the Euro or CMC come on board

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS...: weaker and west

[capNstorms]

If anything makes it past 77W and S of 20N... Hello Texas or LA. We sure need it out here. New name, but long time forum reader, RITA 08' was the year that started everything for me, including this page! Let's see what the models do in a few days. It's HOT here in Texas. My tires went from 5/16 tread left to bald in 3 weeks... If I told you blacktop temps you wouldn't believe me. I went to Galveston the other day, couldn't swim, ocean is a hot boil.