Low Pressure Trough Over the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 99L)

[ElectricStorm]

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another area of low pressure could develop by the middle to latter
portion of this week over the east-central tropical Atlantic
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Some slow development of this system is also possible as it moves
west-northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[abajan]

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another area of low pressure could develop by the middle to latter
portion of this week over the east-central tropical Atlantic
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Some slow development of this system is also possible as it moves
west-northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

I think this could potentially be one to watch down the road. GFS tries to get something going in the next few days but I'm doubtful

[Landy]

18z EPS has numerous TS/minimal hurricane members on approach to the Antilles, seems to diverge depending on strength. I believe it's this AOI, feel free to move if not.

[Ianswfl]

18z EPS has numerous TS/minimal hurricane members on approach to the Antilles, seems to diverge depending on strength. I believe it's this AOI, feel free to move if not.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/877402829797621770/1140459346367619123/ecens_2023-08-13-18Z_144_22.774_288.579_5.036_320.56_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

Also more south than the 12z eps! With trofs forecasted I'd watch for something sneaking in the eastern Gulf. Kinda gives me vibes of a storm 19 years ago today. GFS hinting at some FL action too from the south.

[ouragans]

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another area of low pressure could develop by the middle to latter
portion of this week over the central tropical Atlantic. Some slow
development of this system is also possible while it moves
west-northwestward through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Blown Away]

06z ECENS… More active w/ Central Atlantic TW.

[Blown Away]

06z ICON…

[wxman57]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Bv0rmzzj/icon-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh57-120.gif [/url]
06z ICON…

00Z ICON has a wave reaching the eastern Caribbean islands next Monday. Not so unusual for late August. Any development in the eastern MDR is likely to track north of the Caribbean and head out to sea. I'm more excited (not concerned) about the wave the GFS & EC move into the upper Texas coast early next week. Could be the first rain we've seen in about 50 days.

[HoustonFrog]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Bv0rmzzj/icon-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh57-120.gif [/url]
06z ICON…

00Z ICON has a wave reaching the eastern Caribbean islands next Monday. Not so unusual for late August. Any development in the eastern MDR is likely to track north of the Caribbean and head out to sea. I'm more excited (not concerned) about the wave the GFS & EC move into the upper Texas coast early next week. Could be the first rain we've seen in about 50 days.

Give me some odds. I'm desperate.... seems some model consistency for rains Monday-Wednesday.

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Bv0rmzzj/icon-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh57-120.gif [/url]
06z ICON…

00Z ICON has a wave reaching the eastern Caribbean islands next Monday. Not so unusual for late August. Any development in the eastern MDR is likely to track north of the Caribbean and head out to sea. I'm more excited (not concerned) about the wave the GFS & EC move into the upper Texas coast early next week. Could be the first rain we've seen in about 50 days.

Not much to be concerned about this one either if it developes unless you're on a ship.

[LarryWx]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Bv0rmzzj/icon-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh57-120.gif [/url]
06z ICON…

00Z ICON has a wave reaching the eastern Caribbean islands next Monday. Not so unusual for late August. Any development in the eastern MDR is likely to track north of the Caribbean and head out to sea. I'm more excited (not concerned) about the wave the GFS & EC move into the upper Texas coast early next week. Could be the first rain we've seen in about 50 days.

Not much to be concerned about this one either if it developes unless you're on a ship.

I disagree wholeheartedly, especially if you're on Bermuda but also to a lesser extent the NE Caribbean. Even the CONUS and Bahamas are imo far from safe from this at this very early stage. This one even has a decent shot at becoming a MH per many EPS runs, including today's 0Z.

[SFLcane]

00Z ICON has a wave reaching the eastern Caribbean islands next Monday. Not so unusual for late August. Any development in the eastern MDR is likely to track north of the Caribbean and head out to sea. I'm more excited (not concerned) about the wave the GFS & EC move into the upper Texas coast early next week. Could be the first rain we've seen in about 50 days.

Not much to be concerned about this one either if it developes unless you're on a ship.

I disagree wholeheartedly, especially if you're on Bermuda but also to a lesser extent the NE Caribbean. Even the CONUS and Bahamas are imo far from safe from this at this very early stage. This one even has a decent shot at becoming a MH per many EPS runs.

I hear ya. Bermuda should surely watch this one but i think eps is showing its overcooked bias especially the new modeling scheme with this one. Maybe nothing develops at all

[ouragans]

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another area of low pressure could develop by the middle to latter
portion of this week over the central tropical Atlantic. Some slow
development of this system is also possible while it moves
west-northwestward through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while
it moves westward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while
it moves westward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/ysOgIVo.png

Notice that they changed it from moving WNW to moving W. Along with this, the mean latitude of the lemon now stays S of 15N vs the left part of it being N of 15N.

[abajan]

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while
it moves westward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/ysOgIVo.png

Notice that they changed it from moving WNW to moving W. Along with this, the mean latitude of the lemon now stays S of 15N vs the left part of it being N of 15N.

Yes, mainly due to my location I immediately noticed the change from WNW to W.

[zzzh]

[Blown Away]

18z ECENS… Still active

[abajan]

Excerpt from 2 a.m. Tropical Weather Update:

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while
it moves westward at about 15 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Considering the abundance of dry air, this seems more reasonable than 20 percent.