Tropical Wave in the SE GOMEX (Is Invest 91L)

[captainbarbossa19]

Unfortunately the landfall will be well south of Corpus Christi. The high wins and we fry some more. That high is a monster

Curse you Dam Death Ridge!

At this rate, Texas is going to be so dry that when the scale tips, it will make Harvey look like child's play knowing our weather. I just don't see us suddenly returning to a normal pattern and us slowly moistening up. It's usually way too much rain for the state at one time.

[Tireman4]

Unfortunately the landfall will be well south of Corpus Christi. The high wins and we fry some more. That high is a monster

Curse you Dam Death Ridge!

At this rate, Texas is going to be so dry that when the scale tips, it will make Harvey look like child's play knowing our weather. I just don't see us suddenly returning to a normal pattern and us slowly moistening up. It's usually way too much rain for the state at one time.

The one thing we have learned in weather, it always balances itself out. For every swing of the pendulum one way, it will always come back.

[Wampadawg]

Curse you Dam Death Ridge!

At this rate, Texas is going to be so dry that when the scale tips, it will make Harvey look like child's play knowing our weather. I just don't see us suddenly returning to a normal pattern and us slowly moistening up. It's usually way too much rain for the state at one time.

The one thing we have learned in weather, it always balances itself out. For every swing of the pendulum one way, it will always come back.

Exactly waiting for the another boot to drop,we do seem to do everything to the extreme in Texas

[Wampadawg]

https://x.com/jefflindner1/status/16926 ... LVy9FI4apA

[BobHarlem]

Starting to see stuff in the Bahamas radar



(From http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?822 and the loop link there)

[Nimbus]

Starting to see stuff in the Bahamas radar

https://i.imgur.com/s7OkCUU.gif

(From http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?822 and the loop link there)

Surface pressure is down near Jamaica 29.82.
So this is a broad area of low surface pressure.
Key west starting to dip at 29.99 from 30.03

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42058

[jaguars_22]

So who is going to pinpoint where the main low level center will form? Will it be further north near Florida or down south where the models are currently showing?

[wxman57]

So who is going to pinpoint where the main low level center will form? Will it be further north near Florida or down south where the models are currently showing?

Neither. NW Gulf east of lower TX coast. The disturbance is currently over the central Bahamas moving west.

Ah, Levi (Tropical Tidbits) has a video out on Hilary and Gulf system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=km0PPsjWMWQ

[Stratton23]

Significant disagreement between the GFS and the GEFS guidance, 18z GEFS is well to the north of the 18z GFS Northern Mexico run, GEFS likes corpus area more

[IcyTundra]

Significant disagreement between the GFS and the GEFS guidance, 18z GEFS is well to the north of the 18z GFS Northern Mexico run, GEFS likes corpus area more

I'm thinking between Corpus and Brownsville is the most likely area for landfall. They need the rain just as much as we do just sucks that we probably won't get much.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50% in 7 days

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the central Bahamas
is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week,
where a broad area of low pressure could form. Thereafter, some slow
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of
Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[St0rmTh0r]

Curse you Dam Death Ridge!

At this rate, Texas is going to be so dry that when the scale tips, it will make Harvey look like child's play knowing our weather. I just don't see us suddenly returning to a normal pattern and us slowly moistening up. It's usually way too much rain for the state at one time.

The one thing we have learned in weather, it always balances itself out. For every swing of the pendulum one way, it will always come back.

perffectly balanced as all things should be.

[Into The Fog]

Significant disagreement between the GFS and the GEFS guidance, 18z GEFS is well to the north of the 18z GFS Northern Mexico run, GEFS likes corpus area more

I'm thinking between Corpus and Brownsville is the most likely area for landfall. They need the rain just as much as we do just sucks that we probably won't get much.

\

Ice tundra:
If by chance it lands closer to Corpus, wouldn't Galveston be on the dirty side?

[IcyTundra]

Significant disagreement between the GFS and the GEFS guidance, 18z GEFS is well to the north of the 18z GFS Northern Mexico run, GEFS likes corpus area more

I'm thinking between Corpus and Brownsville is the most likely area for landfall. They need the rain just as much as we do just sucks that we probably won't get much.

\

Ice tundra:
If by chance it lands closer to Corpus, wouldn't Galveston be on the dirty side?

The further up the coast it is the more rain for Galveston. This isn't going to be a very big system so the moisture won't extend very far up the coast. Even with a Corpus landfall I wouldn't expect much rain despite being on the "dirty side".

[wxman57]

Significant disagreement between the GFS and the GEFS guidance, 18z GEFS is well to the north of the 18z GFS Northern Mexico run, GEFS likes corpus area more

I'm thinking between Corpus and Brownsville is the most likely area for landfall. They need the rain just as much as we do just sucks that we probably won't get much.

\

Ice tundra:
If by chance it lands closer to Corpus, wouldn't Galveston be on the dirty side?

Galveston will be on the "death ridge" side. "No soup (rain) for you!"

NHC will probably be up to 60% by sunrise and 70% tomorrow afternoon/evening. I'm thinking they'll go 80% or higher Sunday. Little doubt it will be at least a depression before it moves inland into lower TX coast. I don't expect any rain as far north a Houston. Maybe just a teaser shower. We'll start advisories tomorrow afternoon after I look at 12Z guidance. Lots of calls scheduled already for Hilary & what will be 90L soon.

[mpic]

In an effort to draw it north of the I-10 corridor, I am planning to weedeat, wash my car and get my garden ready for fall planting. Either way, I will have an impromptu wet tshirt contest at my place in Splendora, Texas due to sweat or rain!

[Steve]

Icon is out. Here is its precipitation track showing most of the rain offshore and then south Texas but more firing off south of the Rio Grande.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1900&fh=39

As for balance, I don’t know. I used to think nature would always balance itself out. But if the swings are extreme to extreme, who knows what’s ever going to happen. With all the crazy stuff from Canadian wildfires to Hawaii to potentially a tropical storm hitting California, 2023 hopefully isn’t a preview of the next 20 years and maybe it’s just the result of hot oceans and other factors enough to cause some havoc.

[capNstorms]

Wave on the Nam heading to Texas. Let's see what this "death ridge" is doing on Sunday. We might get a deluge that's well needed.

[Steve]

Pulling for you cap. GFS precip is mostly Deep South Texas but better for them than ICON

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=150

CMC shows more widespread rain for west Texas though not much.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=150

Otherwise, it must be getting close to august 20th. Plus MJO is ripe. Not for this thread but after this 2 week or so burst in the Atlantic, it will be cool to see if we can get favorability back end of September/early October and how that plays off strengthening El Niño. Unless things stay active after this period, the next one will determine where the season ends up comparatively with the rest.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located near the northwestern and
central Bahamas is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early
next week, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form.
Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.