Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[chaser1]

GFS landfall early Wed weak tropical storm in the 40 to 50mph range around Englewood. Sheared mess. Like a Harvey 1998.

hard to believe this weak. Maybe take the Euro and GFS extremes. Call it 75mph landfall storm maybe.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023082500/gfs_ref_frzn_seus_21.png

Nope, that's no TS on that frame. There's no evident pressure gradient to speak of.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET a bit stronger (60 mph) with similar to 12Z run but slight NW shift. It again landfalls in the FL Big Bend and then goes NE through SE GA and then offshore from SC:

EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 21.4N 88.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2023 72 21.3N 87.9W 1004 22
1200UTC 28.08.2023 84 23.4N 86.2W 1000 43
0000UTC 29.08.2023 96 25.1N 84.9W 996 39
1200UTC 29.08.2023 108 27.6N 84.8W 992 40
0000UTC 30.08.2023 120 29.2N 83.9W 990 43
1200UTC 30.08.2023 132 31.3N 82.0W 993 44
0000UTC 31.08.2023 144 33.1N 78.5W 991 45
1200UTC 31.08.2023 156 34.4N 74.6W 991 48
0000UTC 01.09.2023 168 35.2N 70.6W 993 52

[cycloneye]

00z UIKMET more stronger than 12z. LarryWx.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS is more active than the last few runs. Tue 8/29 is the most active day in FL/SE US with this.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
near the northeastern coast of Honduras is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while moving generally northward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests in
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should
monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

Should be tagged as an invest soon, will be nice to get hurricane model runs

[LarryWx]

At hour 96, the 0Z Euro is weaker than the prior three 12 hourly runs. This may be due to increased Yucatan interaction. Let's see how this run goes further out. Once away from land, it intensifies but it is slower vs recent runs. Instead of Tue, main impact may go into Wednesday.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro ~995 mb TS landfall FL Big Bend at hour 138. Then to Jacksonville at 992 mb at 144. Heaviest rainfall 4-6" in narrow band part of N FL/SE GA.

[GCANE]

GFS finally hops on the train

[USTropics]

The GFS hasn't handled the evolution of vorticity very well, those are some big corrections in the last 6 runs (less than 5-day forecasts):

[chris_fit]

06z GFS (and 00z for that matter) caving to the Euro pretty much. Stronger on the 06Z, just north of Tampa.

[jlauderdal]

The GFS hasn't handled the evolution of vorticity very well, those are some big corrections in the last 6 runs (less than 5-day forecasts):
https://i.postimg.cc/R0LD3GyV/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh78-trend.gif

This was a big loss for the GFS, Euro sniffed it out last Sunday but way too intense and lost it but still a win for the euro, Canadian and icon. Lets see how they do on the leadup to landfall.

[Nimbus]

06Z GFS now showing a closed low in the same position as Euro off Tampa but a little faster track for the GFS.
Both models have 250 MB winds outlining the high to the east with track rounding the western periphery.

There is a trough further north but it isn't digging much in either the 00Z or 06 Z GFS/Euro.
That is usually a low shear setup conducive for development so GFS may explode this in later runs.

I'll check back in Active forumn for the invest later today.

[NDG]

He had no option but the Tweet about it, it would had been nice if he would had given props to the EC

 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1695026534623433062

[gatorcane]

Had a feeling the GFS would jump on board. Now the question is how strong. Water temps are in the low 90s in parts of the Eastern Gulf. For now models are not blowing it up.

[USTropics]

While the models are useful tools, we can now start to follow the evolution of the actual system by analyzing the different levels of the atmosphere. At the lower levels, the northern vorticity lobe is entering the western Caribbean (which should lead to an invest tag later today). This will drag the southern lobe over Central America later tonight, where some type of merger/dissipation of the southern lobe will occur. How far west this northern lobe gets will be key in the long term tracks (over Yucatan? just off the coast? farther west?):


We can also see the northern lobe becoming the dominant feature now by analyzing the evolution of the mid-level vorticity over the past 24 hours:


The upper-level environment also appears conducive for development, with defined radial outflow setting up over the GOM:

[SFLcane]

Half’s models are into the Naples area 991mb.

[NDG]

06z GEFS ensembles finally wake up.

[caneman]

Half’s models are into the Naples area 991mb.

https://i.postimg.cc/TYRFJmzt/IMG-7501.gif

I'm not seeing any reliable models taking it that far South. Tampa to Big Bend but I don't trust any of them until we have an actual system to track

[toad strangler]

What the heck is the Half's model?

Anyway, whatever comes of this there won't be much waiting. Everyone on the Gulf Coast should have all their supplies by now BUT IF YOU DON'T .... in FLorida, the second tax holiday for storm products starts tomorrow!

https://floridarevenue.com/DisasterPrep/Documents/2023/DPposter11X17.pdf