Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[ScottNAtlanta]

GFS has been out to lunch the whole time. Is it now back from lunch?

Certainly ate something high calorie

[IcyTundra]

GEFS will be interesting.

[SouthFLTropics]

The whole bouncing around the Yucatan and where the center eventually decides to set up shop will be very important. If the center consolidates sooner and stays offshore of the Yucatan, I would suspect that may mean a much stronger system. Direction wise, I'm not ready to go out on that limb yet. Right now I'd say the entire west coast and panhandle are in play.

[MississippiWx]

Boy this run is sure to turn some heads

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023082512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_19.png

Well, then.

Maybe the GFS heard my plea? On a serious note, it can be difficult for models to know where a consolidation will occur with CAG-type systems. I'd expect a lot more bouncing around, but not far enough west for us here in MS to get some rain.

[NDG]

12z GFS is a good example of when a storm moves parallel to the shear and over very warm waters. Many past examples exists.

[SunnyThoughts]

Well, that's new. Can't say I don't hope for the rain associated with it, if we luck out and get any.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: track is SE of 0Z run but still landfalls near FL Big Bend; then moves NE to off the SE US; still a TS but a bit weaker than 0Z run due maybe to the further SE track:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 23.2N 85.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2023 84 23.2N 85.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 29.08.2023 96 25.8N 83.9W 1002 38
0000UTC 30.08.2023 108 28.3N 82.7W 999 32
1200UTC 30.08.2023 120 31.7N 80.4W 1000 34
0000UTC 31.08.2023 132 32.8N 77.9W 1000 35
1200UTC 31.08.2023 144 33.9N 74.5W 1000 32
0000UTC 01.09.2023 156 34.3N 71.9W 1001 39
1200UTC 01.09.2023 168 34.2N 69.2W 1002 36

[kevin]

The whole bouncing around the Yucatan and where the center eventually decides to set up shop will be very important. If the center consolidates sooner and stays offshore of the Yucatan, I would suspect that may mean a much stronger system. Direction wise, I'm not ready to go out on that limb yet. Right now I'd say the entire west coast and panhandle are in play.

Agreed. I still vividly remember how everyone thought Michael would peak at 50 kt max. when it became an invest. Then it consolidated faster than expected and stayed offshore and estimates shot up to 80 - 85 kt. Of course not the cat 5 it eventually became, but Michael was a special case for a lot of reasons. As long as we don't know when and where it consolidates I honestly think anything from a weak TS to a MH is on the table. If I were to place a bet now I'd say mid-range cat 1.

[caneman]

Right now I trust the GFS about as much as I trust a skinny Chef

[Nimbus]

Boy this run is sure to turn some heads

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023082512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_19.png

Not really, I saw this run yesterday making landfall in Destin.
Check out something like the 250 MB winds at 90 and 96 hours.
Its the trough split scenario GFS didn't want to commit earlier?
Dr Levi is better at finding the devil in the details and WXman57 hasn't weighed in yet?

[cycloneye]

The waiting is over. Invest 93L is up