Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS coming in with this long tracker as a formidable hurricane north of the big islands and headed for Bahamas… looking for the trough to open the trap door!!!


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[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS coming in with this long tracker as a formidable hurricane north of the big islands and headed for Bahamas… looking for the trough to open the trap door!!!


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And there it is… trap door open at hour 276… head on up and out before it closes.


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[Category5Kaiju]

Well Well well, what do we have here? Cabo Verde long tracker? I’m excited to see what this storm is capable of(intensity wise). Hopefully we get a recurve before it hits the islands. We need a fish storm, not a shark storm. (Get it, cuz shark storms would be ocean storms that hit islands)

You know, technically, every hurricane (including Irma, Ivan, etc.) is a "fish storm" at some point in its life I'm sure you know what I mean here; we don't want "human storms."

Ok, anyways, back on topic.

[Jr0d]

The SE coast needs to watch this, definitely not a 100% guarantee this will recurve

i'd give it about 90% chance of recurve right now

Too far out to give an accurate guess, However a recurve is likely based on climatology.

It is unlikely that no troughs come through to recurve this in the 120 to 300+ hours range.

Currently this is around 300 hours from being a threat to the CONUS, if it moves a little faster than currently forecast, then a recurve is less likely.

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, the GFS comes back to life and has this moving north of the islands and heading north in fantasy land.

[Zonacane]

The SE coast needs to watch this, definitely not a 100% guarantee this will recurve

i'd give it about 90% chance of recurve right now

Don't you dare

[IcyTundra]

18Z GEFS has a wide range of potential tracks. 1 cluster recurves pretty easily before the Lesser Antilles while another cluster tracks through the Lesser Antilles or just north of them.

[cycloneye]

10/60

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
within the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system during the early and
middle parts of next week, and a tropical depression could form
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over
the eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

\

[Into The Fog]

So far its been a real EL Nino year with so many going out to sea.
Lets hope they all stay that way. Idalia was enough.

[cheezyWXguy]

So far its been a real EL Nino year with so many going out to sea.
Lets hope they all stay that way. Idalia was enough.

Yes… 140% of average ace for this time of year, 2 simultaneous majors, and a count of 11/3/2 by 8/31. Very nino-esque

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1697695143862653157




Potentially great news for the East Coast though its still 2 weeks out so I wouldn't celebrate just yet.

[weeniepatrol]

A strong tropical wave has been added to the analysis with axis
along the west coast of Africa near 15W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong
convection is seen from 07N to 16N between 14W and 21W. Conditions
appear conducive for gradual development during the early and
middle parts of next week, and a tropical depression could form
while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern
and central portions of the tropical Atlantic.

[mantis83]

So far its been a real EL Nino year with so many going out to sea.
Lets hope they all stay that way. Idalia was enough.

i agree with this minus the el nino part

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan's take.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1697720829919039735

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This will likely be a significant hurricane, moderate chance of impacts to the Lesser Antilles, especially if develop is at all delayed and with Idalia not lingering like earlier expectations.

[dexterlabio]

So far its been a real EL Nino year with so many going out to sea.
Lets hope they all stay that way. Idalia was enough.

Yes… 140% of average ace for this time of year, 2 simultaneous majors, and a count of 11/3/2 by 8/31. Very nino-esque

He was talking about the general track of the storms so far, not the quality of these storms.

[AtlanticWind]

So far its been a real EL Nino year with so many going out to sea.
Lets hope they all stay that way. Idalia was enough.

Well Franklin and Idalia affected land so I wouldn’t say so many going out to sea
other than a few weak storms.

[chris_fit]

18z EPS Look to be more South and West at 144hrs

[OuterBanker]

I just love how consistent the GFS has been this year,

06z east coast monster.

12z nada nothing at all develops.

18z. Franklin 2.

[cheezyWXguy]

So far its been a real EL Nino year with so many going out to sea.
Lets hope they all stay that way. Idalia was enough.

Yes… 140% of average ace for this time of year, 2 simultaneous majors, and a count of 11/3/2 by 8/31. Very nino-esque

He was talking about the general track of the storms so far, not the quality of these storms.

While there seems to be a correlation between El Niño and a weaker Bermuda high in general, the Atlantic and the activity observed in it this year have not behaved at all like a standard El Niño. In fact, none of the Atlantic seasons after 2017 have really exhibited this correlation. The last major hurricane to cross the Atlantic and ultimately make a US landfall was Florence in 2018, another El Niño year where atmospheric coupling was still questionable during peak season. The triple dip La Niña that we just got out of, on the other hand, featured majors in 2020 and 2021 that recurved out to sea, and 2022’s F storm was basically a slightly weaker version of Franklin that only differed in that it swept eastern Canada on its recurve. I’ve also been hearing since spring that the gulf and Caribbean would largely be shut off to activity due to El Niño, and we saw how that just went.

I take it that the original comment was just made with hope that this one will recurve out to sea. I hope so too, and statistically, the odds are ever in favor of that outcome. But basing that case on El Niño in this particular season just doesn’t carry weight imo.