Could next season be hyperactive post Nino?

[Ianswfl]

I'm looking at the long range climate models on TT and all of them by next spring and summer all are showing way above normal SST in the Atlantic! When El Nino fades next season and we have similar SST to this year we should have a high number and ACE season.

This season is focused more on the sub tropics it seems due to El Nino. I would suspect next season with El Nino fading more activity in the Caribbean season and in the Gulf with less shear. Next season is looking interesting.

[LarryWx]

I'm looking at the long range climate models on TT and all of them by next spring and summer all are showing way above normal SST in the Atlantic! When El Nino fades next season and we have similar SST to this year we should have a high number and ACE season.

This season is focused more on the sub tropics it seems due to El Nino. I would suspect next season with El Nino fading more activity in the Caribbean season and in the Gulf with less shear. Next season is looking interesting.

Has the current season had much shear in the Caribbean and Gulf to this point relative to overall climo? I thought it had been rather low.

[weeniepatrol]

I'm looking at the long range climate models on TT and all of them by next spring and summer all are showing way above normal SST in the Atlantic! When El Nino fades next season and we have similar SST to this year we should have a high number and ACE season.

This season is focused more on the sub tropics it seems due to El Nino. I would suspect next season with El Nino fading more activity in the Caribbean season and in the Gulf with less shear. Next season is looking interesting.

Has the current season had much shear in the Caribbean and Gulf to this point relative to overall climo? I thought it had been rather low.

It's been below average relative to overall climo and far far far below average relative to strong ninos

[weeniepatrol]

Assuming El Nino does decay and does transition into La Nina, then yes, absolutely. This is by no means guaranteed; some el Nino events last for years (rarer than La Ninas doing so however) and some only decay to warm neutral. Most strong El Ninos, however, do decay after a year and do transition to Nina

The activity we are observing this season may, in hindsight be a massive red flag for the next year; we'll see

[Ianswfl]

I'm looking at the long range climate models on TT and all of them by next spring and summer all are showing way above normal SST in the Atlantic! When El Nino fades next season and we have similar SST to this year we should have a high number and ACE season.

This season is focused more on the sub tropics it seems due to El Nino. I would suspect next season with El Nino fading more activity in the Caribbean season and in the Gulf with less shear. Next season is looking interesting.

Has the current season had much shear in the Caribbean and Gulf to this point relative to overall climo? I thought it had been rather low.

It's been below average relative to overall climo and far far far below average relative to strong ninos

idalia struggled with shear most of its life.

[Ianswfl]

Assuming El Nino does decay and does transition into La Nina, then yes, absolutely. This is by no means guaranteed; some el Nino events last for years (rarer than La Ninas doing so however) and some only decay to warm neutral. Most strong El Ninos, however, do decay after a year and do transition to Nina

The activity we are observing this season may, in hindsight be a massive red flag for the next year; we'll see

Some of the precip maps for next season are above average too for FL. Cansips for next July and Aug way above normal for Southern half of fl!

[weeniepatrol]

Assuming El Nino does decay and does transition into La Nina, then yes, absolutely. This is by no means guaranteed; some el Nino events last for years (rarer than La Ninas doing so however) and some only decay to warm neutral. Most strong El Ninos, however, do decay after a year and do transition to Nina

The activity we are observing this season may, in hindsight be a massive red flag for the next year; we'll see

Some of the precip maps for next season are above average too for FL. Cansips for next July and Aug way above normal for Southern half of fl!

Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure those models simply exhibit little skill at those kinds of timeframes

[Teban54]

Has the current season had much shear in the Caribbean and Gulf to this point relative to overall climo? I thought it had been rather low.

It's been below average relative to overall climo and far far far below average relative to strong ninos

idalia struggled with shear most of its life.

From the indicators thread:

[weeniepatrol]

Has the current season had much shear in the Caribbean and Gulf to this point relative to overall climo? I thought it had been rather low.

It's been below average relative to overall climo and far far far below average relative to strong ninos

idalia struggled with shear most of its life.

One system is not representative of the basin as a whole averaged over the season, however.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Modeling all the way out to the next hurricane season has dubious accuracy at best, however, it doesn't mean the past can't give us a clue with how next year may go down. All the strong el ninos since 1995 went on to become la ninas in the following year (1995, 1998, 2010, 2016). Three out of the four were hyperactive.

Here is the ace for la nina seasons that just followed el nino events since 1995 (strength of el nino not applied):

1995: 227
1998: 182
2005: 245
2007: 74
2010: 166
2016: 141

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic

4 out of the 6 were hyperactive, 2016 was solidly active, and 2007 is the notable odd one out. Based on this, I believe a very active season can be anticipated for next year.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'd rather get through this season before worrying too much about next season.

However, with that being said, I can't help but slightly speculate that the activity we're seeing now is a possible sign of a very robust and significantly active season in 2024, barring any 2022 or 2013-like surprises.

Assuming the El Nino in place now weakens or dissipates next year, we will be faced with either a neutral or a La Nina year. Historically, these years have tended to be more active than El Nino years (especially first-year La Ninas). Models also seem to indicate that the warmth anomalies in the basin that we are seeing now and have seen throughout most of the year may not really taper off by next year, so I do expect the basin to be very warm again by the start of next hurricane season. And with how well the Atlantic has been performing despite a moderate El Nino....you can't help but wonder what activity would look like if the El Nino were to vanish or diminish in strength.

[WalterWhite]

I'd rather get through this season before worrying too much about next season.

However, with that being said, I can't help but slightly speculate that the activity we're seeing now is a possible sign of a very robust and significantly active season in 2024, barring any 2022 or 2013-like surprises.

Assuming the El Nino in place now weakens or dissipates next year, we will be faced with either a neutral or a La Nina year. Historically, these years have tended to be more active than El Nino years (especially first-year La Ninas). Models also seem to indicate that the warmth anomalies in the basin that we are seeing now and have seen throughout most of the year may not really taper off by next year, so I do expect the basin to be very warm again by the start of next hurricane season. And with how well the Atlantic has been performing despite a moderate El Nino....you can't help but wonder what activity would look like if the El Nino were to vanish or diminish in strength.

2005 could be a reasonable analog for 2024 based on how 2023 is going. I would not be surprised one bit if 2024 exceeds 200 ACE and exhausts the main naming list.

[Ptarmigan]

If history is any indication, post El Nino seasons tend to be active with a few exceptions.

1995, 1998, 2005, 2010, and 2020 were post El Nino seasons.

[Ianswfl]

If history is any indication, post El Nino seasons tend to be active with a few exceptions.

1995, 1998, 2005, 2010, and 2020 were post El Nino seasons.

The long range climate models suggest well above normal water temps for late spring and early summer. I would also expect more Caribbean and deep tropics activity next year as well versus open Atl like this year. So, no El Nino and super warm water temps.

[FireRat]

I would imagine 2024 could be quite active after this season's over-performance. Depending on how long the Nino lasts, we might want to mentally prepare for 2025 too! The next 2 years could be quite interesting IMO!

[Ianswfl]

I would imagine 2024 could be quite active after this season's over-performance. Depending on how long the Nino lasts, we might want to mentally prepare for 2025 too! The next 2 years could be quite interesting IMO!

If it's active I expect a 2005 type season. Not just storms but intensity and more western atl and carribean focused. If the water temps are like this I expect dorian and Katrina type storms.

I'm still shocked how bare the Caribbean has been of convection this season.

[WalterWhite]

A hyperactive season should honestly be expected for 2024 for multiple reasons:

1) El Ninos typically generate sinking air over the Atlantic, leading to less cloudiness over the Atlantic, which would help warm the Atlantic more quickly than usual. The Atlantic basin will probably be warmer next year than this year.

2) La Ninas typically follow moderate/strong El Ninos. Next year will almost certainly be a La Nina year.

2023 already had a record-warm Atlantic. Based on the trends above, I fully expect 2024 to have a record-warm Atlantic and a La Nina; as such, shear in the Atlantic should be exceptionally low next year. Additionally, I do not expect the West African Monsoon to abate, meaning convection is not likely to be an issue. These two factors alone should make next year a hyperactive season at the very minimum.

It would take an event as anomalous as the thermohaline circulation shutdown of 2013 or the Mt. Etna eruption of 2022 for next season not be hyperactive.

[ElectricStorm]

To me it's just way too far out to really have any idea what's going to happen next year. I mean we still don't even know how active next month will be let alone a year out

I don't think it's wise to use 2005 as an analog by itself because that type of season is the (extremely rare) exception, not the norm.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I would imagine 2024 could be quite active after this season's over-performance. Depending on how long the Nino lasts, we might want to mentally prepare for 2025 too! The next 2 years could be quite interesting IMO!

If it's active I expect a 2005 type season. Not just storms but intensity and more western atl and carribean focused. If the water temps are like this I expect dorian and Katrina type storms.

I'm still shocked how bare the Caribbean has been of convection this season.

Despite how active this season has been we're still in an el nino and one of its effects is a drier than normal Caribbean. A dry Caribbean with an active mdr and open Atlantic was anticipated by climate models months in advance, they've verified well.

[mantis83]

I would imagine 2024 could be quite active after this season's over-performance. Depending on how long the Nino lasts, we might want to mentally prepare for 2025 too! The next 2 years could be quite interesting IMO!

If it's active I expect a 2005 type season. Not just storms but intensity and more western atl and carribean focused. If the water temps are like this I expect dorian and Katrina type storms.

I'm still shocked how bare the Caribbean has been of convection this season.

if next season is active lets hope they all stay out in the open atlantic, with little harm to life and property.......