Tropical Wave off the African Coast (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

.

Near the West African Coastline:
A tropical wave currently located near the West African coastline is
forecast to emerge into the eastern Tropical Atlantic over the next
day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for some gradual development of this system as it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern
Tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[WalterWhite]

These are 12Z runs, but the point still stands.

GFS operational (the 1002 mb low):


ECMWF operational (the 1006 mb low):


CMC operational (the 1005 mb low):


ICON operational (the 997 mb low):


GEFS (GFS) ensembles:


EPS (ECMWF) ensembles:


GEPS (CMC) ensembles:

[CFLHurricane]

And with this forecast, I’m feeling pretty upbeat about CV season being over for Florida and am enjoying the break before October surprise.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

The CV longtracker that would send the North Atlantic ACE to the roof.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system during
the latter part of this week as it moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS…

[jlauderdal]

The CV longtracker that would send the North Atlantic ACE to the roof.

Anxiety through the roof too.

[mantis83]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nhHvxQns/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh180-384.gif [/url]
06z GFS…

bounces off the florida force field just in time to recurve out to sea

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1700854034217705579

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nhHvxQns/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh180-384.gif [/url]
06z GFS…

bounces off the florida force field just in time to recurve out to sea

I would prefer to have it hitting florida at that range.

[WalterWhite]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/nhHvxQns/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh180-384.gif [/url]
06z GFS…

That must be the most anxiety-inducing model run I have ever seen in my life. You would have people anticipating for a redux of Dorian, Irma, Isabel, and Sandy.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah, unlike Lee, there are some subtle signs that this wave could develop and travel under a building Azores High. Danny Morris specifically had a pretty long Twitter thread on that recently. I'd even argue that if some indications were to actually pan out, this could be a bit more concerning than Lee.

[Landy]

GFS solutions today have favored a solution where this disturbance passes north of the Antilles around where Lee will trek these next few days. Seems like ridge builds in which brings it close to the east coast, but this is largely dependent on what Margot does. If Margot stays trapped in the lower subtropics it could leave an opening for the disturbance to go OTS much earlier.

[Iceresistance]

What is this!?


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S4pmx.gif

[Landy]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic just
west of the coast of Africa is producing disorganized cloudiness
and showers. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development of this system during the latter part of this
week as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[mantis83]

latest 12z gfs is a bit concerning if that upper air pattern it forecasts come to fruition with a building ridge and cutoff low over the southeast....way out there tho

[SconnieCane]

latest 12z gfs is a bit concerning if that upper air pattern it forecasts come to fruition with a building ridge and cutoff low over the southeast....way out there tho

Leave it to the GFS to take the Euro's 12Z weenie run with Lee from yesterday and say "hold my beer."

[Blown Away]

latest 12z gfs is a bit concerning if that upper air pattern it forecasts come to fruition with a building ridge and cutoff low over the southeast....way out there tho

Leave it to the GFS to take the Euro's 12Z weenie run with Lee from yesterday and say "hold my beer."

Clearly the NHC discounting the GFS and going with Euro based on their 7 day cone recurve into C Atlantic.

[zzzh]

GFS is the outlier here (again and again), so I wouldn't trust the GFS.