Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[SFLcane]

Cut-off low that wasn't as strong or West as prior runs yanks this NE after hitting the Islands.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1704478920479826424

[wxman57]

as expected 6z gfs is similar to euro now keeping this north and east of the islands, with no threat to the US, according to this run....good news!

Why? Mods this should be looked into this thread is clogged with so many posts like these that bring “ 0 “ value to this thread.

I see no issue with the post. matis83 said that it would stay north and east of the islands (Caribbean). That would be good news for the Caribbean islands and the U.S. Possible Bermuda threat, though.

As for the wave, the earlier it develops, the better the chance of it turning north and passing northeast of the Caribbean, as have previous storms. If it doesn't develop, then it may pass through the Caribbean, where it could develop in the same region as Idalia. I'm hopeful it develops sooner rather than later.

[AutoPenalti]

Cut-off low that wasn't as strong or West as prior runs yanks this NE after hitting the Islands.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1704478920479826424?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

Not the reason why it yanks NE though.

[jlauderdal]

If the wave moves slow thru the MDR, then it may get close or miss the islands as the ridge weakens, but if it moves faster, it will move more west.

I hope the pattern continues for you and msbee, abajan, etc. Hurricanes doing their thing this season moving energy around without too much damage. Meanwhile in sofla, the rainy season continues full force, so much for tstorms dying down after sunset, at least yesterday.

[Iceresistance]

No


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S44GI.gif

[floridasun]

No

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S44GI.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S44GI.gif

Link don't show up and not able to be open

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1704451860906561547

[floridasun]

No

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S44GI.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S44GI.gif

Link don't show up and not able to be open

It wfi were I am at block link have remove wfi few seconds

[Iceresistance]

No

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S44GI.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S44GI.gif

Link don't show up and not able to be open

It wfi were I am at block link have remove wfi few seconds

I hate it when it happens like that.

[floridasun]

Not seen so many hurr make turn out to sea like this year good for islands and usa and Bermuda some time let it going that way

[abajan]

If the wave moves slow thru the MDR, then it may get close or miss the islands as the ridge weakens, but if it moves faster, it will move more west.

I hope the pattern continues for you and msbee, abajan, etc. Hurricanes doing their thing this season moving energy around without too much damage. Meanwhile in sofla, the rainy season continues full force, so much for tstorms dying down after sunset, at least yesterday.

Thanks. Btw, 7 News showed live footage of those post-sunset tstorms. Looked pretty intense!

[underthwx]

as expected 6z gfs is similar to euro now keeping this north and east of the islands, with no threat to the US, according to this run....good news!

Why? Mods this should be looked into this thread is clogged with so many posts like these that bring “ 0 “ value to this thread.

I see no issue with the post. matis83 said that it would stay north and east of the islands (Caribbean). That would be good news for the Caribbean islands and the U.S. Possible Bermuda threat, though.

As for the wave, the earlier it develops, the better the chance of it turning north and passing northeast of the Caribbean, as have previous storms. If it doesn't develop, then it may pass through the Caribbean, where it could develop in the same region as Idalia. I'm hopeful it develops sooner rather than later.

Good morning Xman....could you explain why this system developing earlier, would possibly turn Northward,? It's my understanding that the system will be affected by some shear early in its evolution, which may keep it in check for some time? I appreciate it...

[mantis83]

as expected 6z gfs is similar to euro now keeping this north and east of the islands, with no threat to the US, according to this run....good news!

“Good news” to who?

should clarify 6z gfs was north and east of the 0z gfs, still grazes the islands but it's trending in the right direction.....

[Camerooski]

as expected 6z gfs is similar to euro now keeping this north and east of the islands, with no threat to the US, according to this run....good news!

“Good news” to who?

should clarify 6z gfs was north and east of the 0z gfs, still grazes the islands but it's trending in the right direction.....

If one cycle of a model is a 'trend' then the models are continuously... trending.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS is faster and further south.

Just, no, I don't want a Caribbean storm to cause havoc! We already had enough from Idalia!

[LarryWx]

Not seen so many hurr make turn out to sea like this year good for islands and usa and Bermuda some time let it going that way

1. El Niño seasons often have many of these kinds of tracks.
2. There have been a good number of E and central MDR originating TCs. Those systems have a high chance of recurving well east.

[Iceresistance]

Don't you even dare 12z GFS

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/S46bJ.gif
(Model is still updating)

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET dropped this from becoming a TC.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS 951mb into Hispaniola

[mantis83]

concerning run for the islands and bahamas if latest gfs is correct. cmc recurves well north and east of islands, lets see what the euro says before sounding the alarms