Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[Landy]

Wave is now off the coast and two day chances are slowly increasing.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently located just off the west coast of
Africa. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Landy]

[IcyTundra]

Wave is just now moving off of Africa we will have plenty of time to watch this. With it being late September I have a hard time seeing this system making it all the way west into the gulf like the 00Z GFS shows. Even if ridging is strong like the GFS and GEFS suggests it will likely find a weakness somewhere in the Caribbean. Greater and Lesser Antilles need to keep a close eye on this wave.

[Ianswfl]

Wave is just now moving off of Africa we will have plenty of time to watch this. With it being late September I have a hard time seeing this system making it all the way west into the gulf like the 00Z GFS shows. Even if ridging is strong like the GFS and GEFS suggests it will likely find a weakness somewhere in the Caribbean. Greater and Lesser Antilles need to keep a close eye on this wave.

00z euro is running. So far much much more west, trending to the gfs. Likely will still curve but still much more west and also a lot weaker too. Still north of the GFS, but a big trend west. Stronger high. Don't forget storms like Georges 98.

[mantis83]

Safe to say I absolutely hate this run. Not only is this literally the largest hurricane force wind radius I've ever seen in the Atlantic basin, but the hurricane force winds seem to stretch out all the way from Bay St. Louis, MS to near Perry, FL. Absolute devastation for the FL Panhandle, Southern Alabama and Southern Mississippi.

Yep. Personally i think it shifts back east in future runs due to time of the year climo wise

latest euro is well north and east of the islands at the same time, based on pattern persistence it'll probably wind up being more correct, long ways out still

[Ianswfl]

Safe to say I absolutely hate this run. Not only is this literally the largest hurricane force wind radius I've ever seen in the Atlantic basin, but the hurricane force winds seem to stretch out all the way from Bay St. Louis, MS to near Perry, FL. Absolute devastation for the FL Panhandle, Southern Alabama and Southern Mississippi.

But euro still way south and west than earlier run. High is stronger trending towards gfs. Euro usually trends slowly.

Yep. Personally i think it shifts back east in future runs due to time of the year climo wise

latest euro is well north and east of the islands at the same time, based on pattern persistence it'll probably wind up being more correct, long ways out still

[Blown Away]

00z GFS on its own fantasy island on this run. Look at the size of this model cane, wow.

[jconsor]

I think this wave is worth watching closely, as down the road in around 7-10 days it has a decent opportunity to reach the Caribbean or western Atlantic.

This is a sneaky system which will likely not develop in the next 3-4 days, while it heads generally west under a strengthening central Atlantic ridge.  We're really dealing with two waves that will likely merge here - firstly the one outlooked by NHC that just came off the African coast, and secondly a low-latitude ITCZ wave currently around 40W.  The two systems should combine by late Fri-early Sat into a broad wave.  This would initially slow development, due to its large size and lack of concentrated vorticity.

This system likely will find better upper level conditions (strong diffluence aloft, deeper moisture) once it passes 40W and clears the strong UL trough in the east Atlantic, and especially as it nears 60W and the Leeward/Windward islands.  With a much stronger than usual ridge for this time of year over the central Atlantic, there is a decent chance this system makes it into the eastern and northern Caribbean or heads slightly N of the Caribbean to near the Bahamas.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1704217997890494870




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1704220777535439216




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1704408365923704845

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: At 168 hours TS moving W at 15 mph 300 mi NE of Leewards

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.0N 33.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2023 60 15.0N 33.7W 1009 30
0000UTC 23.09.2023 72 15.6N 36.3W 1008 30
1200UTC 23.09.2023 84 16.0N 39.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 24.09.2023 96 16.3N 41.7W 1008 30
1200UTC 24.09.2023 108 16.4N 43.6W 1007 37
0000UTC 25.09.2023 120 17.2N 46.4W 1007 36
1200UTC 25.09.2023 132 17.8N 49.2W 1008 37
0000UTC 26.09.2023 144 18.3N 52.1W 1008 42
1200UTC 26.09.2023 156 18.6N 55.5W 1007 42
0000UTC 27.09.2023 168 18.4N 58.2W 1005 37

[abajan]

0Z UKMET: At 168 hours TS moving W at 15 mph 300 mi NE of Leewards

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 15.0N 33.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2023 60 15.0N 33.7W 1009 30
0000UTC 23.09.2023 72 15.6N 36.3W 1008 30
1200UTC 23.09.2023 84 16.0N 39.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 24.09.2023 96 16.3N 41.7W 1008 30
1200UTC 24.09.2023 108 16.4N 43.6W 1007 37
0000UTC 25.09.2023 120 17.2N 46.4W 1007 36
1200UTC 25.09.2023 132 17.8N 49.2W 1008 37
0000UTC 26.09.2023 144 18.3N 52.1W 1008 42
1200UTC 26.09.2023 156 18.6N 55.5W 1007 42
0000UTC 27.09.2023 168 18.4N 58.2W 1005 37

According to Google, those coordinates are a bit closer and ENE:

[LarryWx]

I’ve found only three storms on record since the late 1800s that have formed in the MDR E of 50W Sep 20+ and hit the CONUS:

1) 2002’s Lili: TD formed 9/21 near 45W and hit LA 10/3 as a H; El Nino

2) 1966’s Inez: TD formed 9/21 near 35W and hit FL Keys 10/4 as a H; not El Niño

3) 1893’s storm #9 formed 9/25 near 25W and hit Carolinas 10/13 as a MH; not El Nino

[REDHurricane]

Safe to say I absolutely hate this run. Not only is this literally the largest hurricane force wind radius I've ever seen in the Atlantic basin, but the hurricane force winds seem to stretch out all the way from Bay St. Louis, MS to near Perry, FL. Absolute devastation for the FL Panhandle, Southern Alabama and Southern Mississippi.

At this point it's almost guaranteed that this scenario will not happen exactly as predicted by the GFS operational 16 days in the future -- no reason to get concerned unless multiple models are consistently forecasting a possible landfall in your general region less than around 10 days out

[WalterWhite]

Models are indicating a tropical wave currently behind the 10%/70% AoI developing into Rina near the end of this month, which they expect to take a similar path Margot by the end of this month.

[Category5Kaiju]

Models are indicating a tropical wave currently behind the 10%/70% AoI developing into Rina near the end of this month, which they expect to take a similar path Margot by the end of this month.

You know assuming this keeps up one would have to wonder the chances of actually hitting Adria before this year ends

[Woofde]

as expected 6z gfs is similar to euro now keeping this north and east of the islands, with no threat to the US, according to this run....good news!

Huh? It went directly over many of the Lesser Antilles and grazes Puerto Rico...

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1704436955620995448




Looks like Andy isn't exactly putting this as a surefire recurve yet...interesting.

[cycloneye]

If the wave moves slow thru the MDR, then it may get close or miss the islands as the ridge weakens, but if it moves faster, it will move more west.

[Cachondo23]

as expected 6z gfs is similar to euro now keeping this north and east of the islands, with no threat to the US, according to this run....good news!

“Good news” to who?

[SFLcane]

as expected 6z gfs is similar to euro now keeping this north and east of the islands, with no threat to the US, according to this run....good news!

Why? Mods this should be looked into this thread is clogged with so many posts like these that bring “ 0 “ value to this thread.

[AutoPenalti]

Cut-off low that wasn't as strong or West as prior runs yanks this NE after hitting the Islands.