Poll: How many named storms will form in October?
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cycloneye
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Poll: How many named storms will form in October?
This poll question is for how many named storms will form on October and will close for voting on September 30th at 9:01 PM EDT.
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cycloneye
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in October?
The poll closes tonight at 9:01 PM EDT so those who have not voted yet, hurry.
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REDHurricane
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in October?
I'm going with 5 -- might be an overshoot but it doesn't appear to me that there's any significant reason that the favorable TC conditions in place will cease to exist over the next few weeks. Probably something along the lines of 2-3 Caribbean/Gulf systems, 2-3 subtropics systems, and/or maybe 1 final MDR system would be my guess, and I also have a feeling we might be in for at least one more Caribbean/Gulf monster, as nothing has disturbed the high upper heat content there since Idalia and the general rules of weather tell us that all of this anomalously concentrated tropical heat/energy/moisture will have to get transported poleward at some point. Models are already indicating the possibility of some weak CAG activity in around 7-10 days, so I could maybe see a big one developing mid/late month once the climatological zone of favorability fully shifts over from the MDR to the Caribbean and Gulf.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in October?
REDHurricane wrote:I'm going with 5 -- might be an overshoot but it doesn't appear to me that there's any significant reason that the favorable TC conditions in place will cease to exist over the next few weeks. Probably something along the lines of 2-3 Caribbean/Gulf systems, 2-3 subtropics systems, and/or maybe 1 final MDR system would be my guess, and I also have a feeling we might be in for at least one more Caribbean/Gulf monster, as nothing has disturbed the high upper heat content there since Idalia and the general rules of weather tell us that all of this anomalously concentrated tropical heat/energy/moisture will have to get transported poleward at some point. Models are already indicating the possibility of some weak CAG activity in around 7-10 days, so I could maybe see a big one developing mid/late month once the climatological zone of favorability fully shifts over from the MDR to the Caribbean and Gulf.
What do you think of the eastern gulf?
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