Possible Development in the SW Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of this system early
next week while it moves generally northward over western or central
portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[SFLcane]

Decent signal..

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1717694807986872709

[FireRat]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1717694807986872709

Ok this is good to know! I was thinking about that crazy Nov 7-10 cane the models were showing too.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of this system early
next week while it moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[REDHurricane]

Yeah it doesn't look like this one should be too much of a threat (hopefully); the next system, which develops around November 2-3 according to the 00z ensembles, is the one that people should be monitoring very closely in my opinion. The fact that conditions are already favorable enough for a 7-day Caribbean lemon heightens my suspicion that this pattern could very well end up producing another strong hurricane. Obviously I'm no meteorologist, but as someone with pretty decent pattern recognition skills I think it's important to not miss the forest for the trees here, so I hope everyone in the Caribbean will at least be watching this system throughout the next week in order to avoid any huge surprises.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system during the next several days while it
moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Weathertracker96]

It might not mean much but it seems the Euro on this run showed a little more low pressure in the Caribbean. It gets shoved down south because of the high pressure towards the end of the run. I know it might mean much but it’ll be interesting to see if it’s catching on slowly or if that area will be just broad mess.

[Blown Away]

pic hosting


12z GEFS a little more active than 06z...

[Teban54]

Down to 10/20.

1. Western Caribbean Sea:
An area of disturbed weather over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of this system during
the next several days while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Note that there appears to be two different systems that people are discussing.

[johngaltfla]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1717694807986872709

I think Andy nailed this.

[cycloneye]

Interesting LLC north of PR. Will this one develop and not in SW Caribbean?

[LarryWx]

Interesting LLC north of PR. Will this one develop and not in SW Caribbean?

https://i.imgur.com/lvI2UHP.gif

This weak low has been on all of the models.

[cycloneye]

An area of disturbed weather continues over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Further development of this system appears unlikely while it drifts
northward or north-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[blp]

Euro ENS stronger this run

[CourierPR]

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi says to watch the Caribbean later this week.