Possible development in the SW Caribbean (Is Invest 98L)

[Jr0d]

These late season systems are notoriously difficult to forecast, especially when interacting with a frontal low so it is surprising to see the models in pretty good agreement this early on.

What I have noticed is the models will be over bullish on one of the lows, and bearish on the other. If the frontal low is stronger, what maybe future Vince will be weaker and if the front is weaker Vince is stronger.

While unlikely, I suppose it is not impossible to see one giant nor'easter type of system instead of two distinct lows...gotta through the worst case scenario out there.

[USTropics]

12z Euro caved to GFS on the track.

https://i.imgur.com/aXcIWtr.gif

So, is the GFS the favored model with this system?

A blend of model and ensemble output is the favored forecast here. ECMWF/GFS ensembles are in relatively good agreement on two potential tracks now: (1) a system that has weak steering currents and either dissipates or drifts towards Central America and (2) a quick track towards the NE across potentially Jamaica/Cuba/Hispaniola. Given our global numerical model outputs (GFS/ECMWF/CMC), solutions for (2) seem more probable at this time.

12z ECMWF ensembles:


12z GFS ensembles:

[LarryWx]

For the first time I can recall, the UKMET (12Z) has TCG for this in their textual product. Actual TCG isn’t until the C Bahamas after which it moves NE toward Bermuda as a 994 mb TS:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 22.3N 73.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.11.2023 144 22.3N 73.6W 1001 32
0000UTC 19.11.2023 156 25.2N 69.9W 1000 40
1200UTC 19.11.2023 168 30.0N 64.9W 994 42

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week while the system drifts northeastward across the western and
central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.3N 78.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.11.2023 108 29.3N 78.0W 1005 38
0000UTC 18.11.2023 120 30.1N 78.3W 1003 32
1200UTC 18.11.2023 132 31.1N 76.6W 1000 23
0000UTC 19.11.2023 144 31.7N 72.9W 998 29
1200UTC 19.11.2023 156 CEASED TRACKING

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development of
this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward
across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Jr0d]

I think we may see a 24 hr lemon soon.

I am amazed at the model agreement on track, towards Jamaica, east Cuba and Haiti and accelerating to the northeast.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in the next few days. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for additional development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the
western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in
Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean
coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles towards to latter
portions of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Roberts

[abajan]

Link: https://youtu.be/DtpkcPcyWLQ

[wxman57]

Wow! NHC now has 70% by around Thursday! Who would have thought the probability would be so high? I don't buy the GFS intensity at all, though. Sheared TD or weak, sheared TS most likely.

[IsabelaWeather]

Wow! NHC now has 70% by around Thursday! Who would have thought the probability would be so high? I don't buy the GFS intensity at all, though. Sheared TD or weak, sheared TS most likely.

Any chance for some really heavy rain for PR or will most of the rain be west of the island?

[Hurricane2022]

Wow! NHC now has 70% by around Thursday! Who would have thought the probability would be so high? I don't buy the GFS intensity at all, though. Sheared TD or weak, sheared TS most likely.

It's sad to see the name "Vince" go to waste in a sloppy storm like this...

[abajan]

Link: https://youtu.be/PJMeMFNHLQQ

[cycloneye]

Convection is increasing in the area.

[jlauderdal]

Wow! NHC now has 70% by around Thursday! Who would have thought the probability would be so high? I don't buy the GFS intensity at all, though. Sheared TD or weak, sheared TS most likely.

They took over 48 hours to catch up to you.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in the next few days. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for additional development of this
system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the
western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in
Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean
coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles towards the latter
portions of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET near Bermuda:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 21.7N 74.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.11.2023 96 21.7N 74.6W 1002 41
1200UTC 18.11.2023 108 24.8N 71.8W 998 46
0000UTC 19.11.2023 120 30.9N 66.5W 994 47
1200UTC 19.11.2023 132 38.1N 60.3W 986 50
0000UTC 20.11.2023 144 45.9N 54.0W 986 50
1200UTC 20.11.2023 156 CEASED TRACKING

[Blown Away]

00z Euro… Low moving over GOM/FL more distinct before it appears to merge w/ our SW Caribbean low in the SW Atlantic… Maybe NHC going to tag this area, some ensembles starting to pickup on the GOM low becoming a TS before crossing or along FL coast…

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of disturbed weather located over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea is currently associated with a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form towards the end of this week while the system begins
moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the
Caribbean Sea. Interests in Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican
Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains
over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the
Greater Antilles through the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Berg

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/8k96vR0W/ec-fast-ow850-watl-fh-24-144.gif [/url]

00z Euro… Low moving over GOM/FL more distinct before it appears to merge w/ our SW Caribbean low in the SW Atlantic… Maybe NHC going to tag this area, some ensembles starting to pickup on the GOM low becoming a TS before crossing or along FL coast…

Fascinating if it comes close to verifying. Regardless, the rainy season has returned to South Florida M-Th this week, prime time tomorrow into Thursday.