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Teban54 wrote:Imagine the MDR SSTs if this ---NAO plays out...
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1772747107906076732?s=19
MetroMike wrote:Where is the missing post from Cycloneye? 9:49pm
USTropics wrote:Teban54 wrote:Imagine the MDR SSTs if this ---NAO plays out...
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1772747107906076732?s=19
This is the first time I've seen the GEFS regime forecast show nearly 100% for a particular regime (in this case, the Greenland High). This should definitely imply a strong -NAO through at least the first week of April. There are mixed signals thereafter, with a potential for a weak +NAO to develop during the 3rd week of April:
https://i.imgur.com/W2QzNxw.png
Blown Away wrote:Is it safe to say the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is the most anticipated season ever?? It surely is in my many decades of tracking hurricanes…
I don't recall 2005 being as anticipated. Was it? Blown Away wrote:Is it safe to say the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is the most anticipated season ever?? It surely is in my many decades of tracking hurricanes…
AnnularCane wrote:Blown Away wrote:Is it safe to say the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is the most anticipated season ever?? It surely is in my many decades of tracking hurricanes…
Seems to be, along with maybe 2020.
NotSparta wrote:AnnularCane wrote:Blown Away wrote:Is it safe to say the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is the most anticipated season ever?? It surely is in my many decades of tracking hurricanes…
Seems to be, along with maybe 2020.
2024 is on another level. 2020 was anticipated fairly early but I don't think it was until after the new year, while people have been hyping up 2024 since the beginning of last season when the Atlantic got really warm
USTropics wrote:Teban54 wrote:TheAustinMan wrote:
Indeed, any correlation between sea surface temperatures in the earliest part of the year in the Western Atlantic or Eastern Pacific with Atlantic seasonal activity is very tenuous. The strongest correlations -- albeit still modest at best -- are over in the equatorial Atlantic. And while we're still quite far out from hurricane season, the strongest correlations between sea surface temperature anomalies and ACE in the Gulf of Mexico are actually not found in the Gulf of Mexico (which fluctuates rapidly as aforementioned), but in the tropical Atlantic. Once storms get going, SSTs and oceanic heat content where storms trek are important factors for storm intensity, but from a seasonal activity perspective, MDR SST anomalies are king as far as SST correlations are concerned, and that's true both at the current long-range and during the hurricane season itself.
Source: Me, using ERSSTv5 for sea surface temperatures and IBTrACS for ACE
https://i.imgur.com/gRIvyeG.png
https://i.imgur.com/4EoQ7Fi.png
Great analysis! Is there a reason or hypothesis why early-season SSTAs east of FL Panhandle has such strong negative correlation with GoM ACE? Is it as general as "warmer subtropics leads to stability", or is there something that affects the Gulf in particular?
Below are 4 composites of years where the GOM/NW Caribbean had negative SSTA in Jan-March (all of these years were active). There is a strong correlation to negative NAO in the months of October-December from the previous years:
https://i.imgur.com/wYqikRs.png
Looking at RAPID AMOC values for these years, there's also a correlation of a weaker AMOC (less transport of warm water to the North Atlantic, which is why we see warmth in the MDR but not the western Atlantic/GOM):
https://i.imgur.com/w7ibvPw.png
cycloneye wrote:The last twit says all.The hot take here is that even if the MDR warms as slow as it's ever done in the last 40 years, we still get to the 2nd warmest ASO MDR temperature. Fingers crossed for lots of other synoptic things to disrupt the season...!
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1774071692274360620
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1774072193275531758
https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1774073027723977053
It is the subtropical east atlantic that's been cooling down, not the subtropical west atlantic. For amo horseshoe pattern you need east atlantic to warm up.
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