2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

Here comes Alberto in late May?

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1779612085032247297

[Blown Away]

Here comes Alberto in late May?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1779612085032247297

We are within the 46 day window of the ECMWF, could happen!!

Joe B being all in on the 2024 Hurricane Season will make it fun!!

[AnnularCane]

I keep feeling I chose the wrong date range in the poll.

[Steve]

Here comes Alberto in late May?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1779612085032247297

We are within the 46 day window of the ECMWF, could happen!!

Joe B being all in on the 2024 Hurricane Season will make it fun!!

Yeah, he said this weekend (repeated I suppose) that they are expecting 10-14 named storms to have U.S. impacts of which 5-8 would be hurricane impacts and 3-5 of those would be majors. That's some 2005 ****. He went on to discuss conglomeration of tracks, but he never came out and said where that conglomeration would be though presumably one set would be out to sea and the other would be Gulf/FL/near SEUS. I usually only skim through it since I don't really care about his political stuff. So maybe I missed it, but he changed the subject so probably not.

[chaser1]

Here comes Alberto in late May?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1779612085032247297

We are within the 46 day window of the ECMWF, could happen!!

Joe B being all in on the 2024 Hurricane Season will make it fun!!

Yeah, he said this weekend (repeated I suppose) that they are expecting 10-14 named storms to have U.S. impacts of which 5-8 would be hurricane impacts and 3-5 of those would be majors. That's some 2005 ****. He went on to discuss conglomeration of tracks, but he never came out and said where that conglomeration would be though presumably one set would be out to sea and the other would be Gulf/FL/near SEUS. I usually only skim through it since I don't really care about his political stuff. So maybe I missed it, but he changed the subject so probably not.

A duel conglomeration of storm tracks to include one primary branch recurving poleward certainly makes sense when looking at a historical perspective. I do think that there is another possibility, albeit far less common. In a truly "worst case scenario" we could have one of the broad conglomeration of tracks in fact represent that one group that potentially could threaten the Greater Antilles and S.E. CONUS., with a generally second conglomeration of tracks represented by a number of low latitude tracks (i.e. "Caribbean Cruisers") primarily threatening the Windward Islands, Central America, and Mexico. Even if this two-pronged storm track generalization were to verify, that wouldn't necessarily suggest that there would be no "out to sea" poleward recurving (from 40W - 70W) storm tracks or suggest that the Northeast US Seaboard, Maritime Canada regions, and Bermuda would be "off the hook". Besides, there's also those tropical or subtropical cyclones that develop "shoulder season"; Those early and late season storms which I tend to think track under transitional/seasonal steering flows (and not necessarily whichever Summer/Fall steering pattern yet to be determined).

[cycloneye]

The IOD factor.

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1779884917427417439




 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1779889198717161611

[aspen]

The IOD factor.

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1779884917427417439

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1779889198717161611

Perhaps we have a repeat of 2021’s late season with that Atlantic Nino in place. Tropical waves are so far south by October that they all run into South America, and the +AMO means subtropical activity is less likely.

[zzzh]

It's been said before lots of time but the primary reason Oct 2021 was dead is this upper trough causing westerly shear over Caribbean.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/87y8Ord.png
It's been said before lots of time but the primary reason Oct 2021 was dead is this upper trough causing westerly shear over Caribbean.

Yeah, that is quite the unfavorable look for late-season tropical cyclone activity. If anything, while I would agree that 2021's potent Atlantic Nino bears some responsibility for the late season dieoff, I don't think it was the only factor. If I'm not mistaken, we've had other La Nina years in the past that had Atlantic Nino but also did not struggle to produce named storms in October and November.

[Teban54]

Hmm... The eastern MDR SSTAs have fallen off a cliff the last couple days.

[zzzh]

Hmm... The eastern MDR SSTAs have fallen off a cliff the last couple days.
https://i.postimg.cc/2yk8V5NK/crw-ssta-graph-etropatl.png

CRW only uses satellite to derive SST so it's sensitive to SAL. OISST doesn't show that jump.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Hmm... The eastern MDR SSTAs have fallen off a cliff the last couple days.
https://i.postimg.cc/2yk8V5NK/crw-ssta-graph-etropatl.png

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/L4n913m.png
CRW only uses satellite to derive SST so it's sensitive to SAL. OISST doesn't show that jump.

I thought CDAS was the one that was particularly sensitive to SAL? Guess it's both then...

[cycloneye]

Very interesting X long thread that discuss about the implications of the Atlantic Niño.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1780408867261931877

[Teban54]

Very interesting X long thread that discuss about the implications of the Atlantic Niño.

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1780408867261931877

My highlights:
 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1780408880742441127



 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1780408888250228869

[Hurricane2022]

Very interesting X long thread that discuss about the implications of the Atlantic Niño.

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1780408867261931877

Oh God.

[LarryWx]

Very interesting X long thread that discuss about the implications of the Atlantic Niño.

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1780408867261931877

My highlights:
 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1780408880742441127



 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1780408888250228869

From what I quoted: “favors CV hurricanes by increasing vorticity in the EATL.”

If true, this would hopefully increase the % that never make it to the Caribbean, N America, or other land. I’m so hoping (though not predicting) this season ends up overhyped and that there’s not too terrible land impact for such an active season a la 2010, one of the top analogs mentioned by at least two major forecasters. That year the E ATL was VERY active and most of those recurved without landfalling though Earl and Igor had some significant land impacts, especially in Canada, Bermuda, and the NE Caribbean. The US had no H landfalls.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2010.png

[Category5Kaiju]

Very interesting X long thread that discuss about the implications of the Atlantic Niño.

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1780408867261931877

My highlights:
 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1780408880742441127



 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1780408888250228869

From what I quoted: “favors CV hurricanes by increasing vorticity in the EATL.”

If true, this would hopefully increase the % that never make it to the Caribbean, N America, or other land. I’m so hoping (though not predicting) this season ends up overhyped and that there’s not too terrible land impact for such an active season a la 2010, one of the top analogs mentioned by at least two major forecasters. That year the E ATL was VERY active and most of those recurved without landfalling though Earl and Igor had some significant land impacts, especially in Canada, Bermuda, and the NE Caribbean. The US had no H landfalls.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2010.png

Something that I've wondered a bit on is, I recall last year how a lot of people were saying that it would be a heavy recurve year because of the El Nino (which it turned out to be). 2010 was also a heavy recurve year, but it was a strong La Nina year. And 1995, 2011, and 2021, which were also heavy recurve years, coincided with moderate strength Ninas.

I wonder if stronger La Ninas kind of functions like an El Nino in favoring recurving storms? While weaker La Ninas or neutral favor more direct land impacts?

[LarryWx]

My highlights:
 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1780408880742441127



 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1780408888250228869

From what I quoted: “favors CV hurricanes by increasing vorticity in the EATL.”

If true, this would hopefully increase the % that never make it to the Caribbean, N America, or other land. I’m so hoping (though not predicting) this season ends up overhyped and that there’s not too terrible land impact for such an active season a la 2010, one of the top analogs mentioned by at least two major forecasters. That year the E ATL was VERY active and most of those recurved without landfalling though Earl and Igor had some significant land impacts, especially in Canada, Bermuda, and the NE Caribbean. The US had no H landfalls.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2010.png

Something that I've wondered a bit on is, I recall last year how a lot of people were saying that it would be a heavy recurve year because of the El Nino (which it turned out to be). 2010 was also a heavy recurve year, but it was a strong La Nina year. And 1995, 2011, and 2021, which were also heavy recurve years, coincided with moderate strength Ninas.

I wonder if stronger La Ninas kind of functions like an El Nino in favoring recurving storms? While weaker La Ninas or neutral favor more direct land impacts?

During 1995, 2010, 2011, 2021, and 2023, a total of a whopping 28 TCGs (avg of 5.6/season) were E of 40W in the MDR. None of those made it to the CONUS though Canada had 7 hits from them! But the CONUS still had 6 H landfalls (1995: Erin, Opal; 2011: Irene; 2021: Ida, Nicholas; 2023: Idalia), but these 6’s TCGs were much further west (furthest east was 59W).

[zzzh]

Hmm... The eastern MDR SSTAs have fallen off a cliff the last couple days.
https://i.postimg.cc/2yk8V5NK/crw-ssta-graph-etropatl.png

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/L4n913m.png
CRW only uses satellite to derive SST so it's sensitive to SAL. OISST doesn't show that jump.

I thought CDAS was the one that was particularly sensitive to SAL? Guess it's both then...

Yes, all satellite derived sst dataset are sensitive to SAL, CDAS is just the worst.
Let's compare CRW sst to buoy measurements in the East Atlantic. Buoy 13002 is located at 21N, 23W, the SST is around 23.2 - 23.3 in the past 24h. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=13002&meas=wtmp&uom=M&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT


Here is what CRW shows: only 21-22 degrees, that's at least 1 degree cooler than actual SST.

[Teban54]

This tweet was from 2021, the most recent year with as pronounced of an Atlantic Nino as this year. The gist is that westerly wind anomalies and warm SSTAs typically shift north from equatorial Atlantic to MDR at peak season.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1413193049107226625