2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[zzzh]

There is a reason why March SST has the least correlation with seasonal activity, as it is the transition month for lots of factors.

See March 2020 & 2017. Big Atlantic ridging resulting in strong trades over Canary Current and Caribbean. Did not stop those years become hyperactive because the pattern changed in April. I'd wait until April to get a better idea of how much cooling we might get.

[weeniepatrol]

you know a season is looking scary when even the perennial bears have to resort to using 2007, a year with multiple category fives, as their seasonal "floor"

[cycloneye]

The African Standard Wave already in place this early.

 https://twitter.com/TorenWX/status/1770616709843427706

[Teban54]

The African Standard Wave already in place this early.

https://twitter.com/TorenWX/status/1770616709843427706

I think the tweet is about ASW forecast for July, not right now.

[Blown Away]

Remarkable how 2024 SST's for Jan/Feb are standing alone. 2016-2023 Jan/Feb were the highest SST's by far going back to the 1800's.

[USTropics]

Here is a superblend of CANSIPS, ECMWF, and UKMET precipitation rates for June - August that I plotted:


I went and plotted reanalysis data for each year from the past 30 years and here are the 5 closest analogs I could find:

[zzzh]

If EPS forecast for this -NAO verified (which failed a lot since January), that will bring back the Canary Current warmth.

[cycloneye]

NAO about to go to negative at least for the next 2 weeks according to GEFS.

[USTropics]

:sick: NAO about to go to negative at least for the next 2 weeks according to GEFS.

https://i.imgur.com/AfIwRId.jpeg

This is a really cool product from Dr. Lee over at Columbia University. It uses the GFS ensembles on a subseasonal basis (~1 month) to determine what is the most likely outcome of 4 different regimes:

link - https://simonleewx.com/gefs_north_america_regimes

Here is a breakdown of the 500mb heights anomaly for each regime:


If a GH regime is favored (Greenland High), one would expect that the NAO will also be negative given the height pressure difference. If AKR (Alaskan Ridge) is favored, one would expect the NAO to be positive.

[cycloneye]

This thread has been a bit quiet, but guess things will turn active soon.

Heat content.





https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sectors/

[USTropics]

Here is another superblend product for SSTA this time:

[weeniepatrol]

Here is another superblend product for SSTA this time:
https://i.imgur.com/2Qk983k.jpeg

Considering that is only for Summer, not Autumn, seems really aggressive with the Nina

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1772620104057880595




The tropical Atlantic is over two months ahead of schedule when it comes to ssts:

With la nina development likely by the summer/fall, it's hard to imagine anything less than a busy hurricane season at this point.

[Blown Away]

Here is another superblend product for SSTA this time:
https://i.imgur.com/2Qk983k.jpeg

Would the slightly cooler SST's in the subtropics compared to tropics indicate an expansive HP?

[USTropics]

Here is another superblend product for SSTA this time:
https://i.imgur.com/2Qk983k.jpeg

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/qM4YYpXv/HP-Map.jpg [/url]
Would the slightly cooler SST's in the subtropics compared to tropics indicate an expansive HP?

That's a very astute observation. From a synoptics standpoint, warmer sea surface temperatures are generally associated with lower pressures due to convective tendencies and rising air. Without getting into too much details: (1) warmer SSTs means (2) increased diabatic heating of the air above which leads to (3) air is less dense and rises and (4) this lowers pressure at the surface. Conversely, cooler SSTs tend to coincide with higher pressure (due to sinking air/subsidence).

There is a caveat here though, this mostly occurs at the surface or lower levels. We'd need to further analyze geopotential heights at 500mb (I've plotted these below for every seasonal model available at Copernicus), which is influenced more by atmospheric pressure patterns (i.e., large-scale atmospheric circulation features like jet streams, planetary waves, and Rossby waves). We'd also need to look at wind data, which I'll plot at another time, but from the geopotential height plots, I would say yes.

[kevin]

I found this max. hurricane potential image for roughly the same time period but in 2019. The Gulf is a bit less intense, but look at that enormous cat 5 region in the MDR already. I'm very fearful of long trackers this year.

2019



2024

[cycloneye]

Kevin, do you have the link to that graphic?

[JetFuel_SE]

Kevin, do you have the link to that graphic?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot

[Teban54]

Imagine the MDR SSTs if this ---NAO plays out...
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1772747107906076732

[mixedDanilo.E]

Accuweather released their numbers today: 20-25 NS, 8-12 HU, 4-7 MH and ACE from 175-225. I know it's accuweather but it just goes to show the certainty everyone has for the season this year.