2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[SFLcane]

I've often said that you could boil the water in the tropics and that wouldn't necessarily generate more hurricanes. Water temperature can lead to stronger hurricanes, given a favorable environment, but it won't make more hurricanes. That said, warm water combined with developing El Nino and a predicted +NAO may mean that the Caribbean may finally open up to long-tracked hurricanes moving through. Watch out in PR, Luis. Significantly increased risk to the islands of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, and Florida. Also an increased risk all along the Gulf Coast and SE U.S. Coast through Virginia.

The threat is real folks take it seriously 3 months to go!

[cycloneye]

I've often said that you could boil the water in the tropics and that wouldn't necessarily generate more hurricanes. Water temperature can lead to stronger hurricanes, given a favorable environment, but it won't make more hurricanes. That said, warm water combined with developing El Nino and a predicted +NAO may mean that the Caribbean may finally open up to long-tracked hurricanes moving through. Watch out in PR, Luis. Significantly increased risk to the islands of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, and Florida. Also an increased risk all along the Gulf Coast and SE U.S. Coast through Virginia.

You meant "Developing La Niña" Yes, wxman57, here we know that the Caribbean will be a hot spot as pro mets here and the press are already talking about the upcomming season. Are you going to do forecasts more early this year for your NE Caribbean clients?

This was the headline from January 15 of one of the main newspapers in Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

NMME March update is

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1765720290963665221

[DioBrando]

I'd say a possibility of a pre July 1 major hurricane

Maybe a spring MH

This is something that should only happen around 2045 - 2050 but I wouldn't be very very surprised if a strong hurricane (90 mph+) were to occur in a early/mid May month after the next El Niño, if the Atlantic waters continued this hellish heating after this future event.

Do you think we'd get a July MH this year

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1765745485933871168




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1765748038939578412

[cycloneye]

Wow.

 https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1765739591120691607




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1765742366034428194

[cycloneye]

I think 1933 could be a good analog for the 2024 season that had plenty of caribbean, GOM,BOC and some east coast of U.S and Florida penninsula activity as well.

[zzzh]

Today is the climatological minimum of MDR SST.

[TheWisestofAll]

5 of the models available in the NMME suite start flirting with Super Nina territory by October.
Of those, three of them flirt with such intensity in the 3-month seasonal.
This is indicated by the prominence of -3C anomalies forecast to encompass a large area around the equator in the Nino 3 and 3.4 regions.
I can't recall seeing such anomalies in the forecast before.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Lead7.html
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/tmpsfc_Seas5.html

[Teban54]

MDR SSTAs are rising again, and has now surpassed the earlier peak in mid-February before the +NAO as per OISST (but not Coral Reef Watch).

[cycloneye]

I have never seen so much favorable conditions so early in March and the climate models have been very consistent.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1765814856354345222




 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1765814860515086353

[cycloneye]

MDR SSTAs are rising again, and has now surpassed the earlier peak in mid-February before the +NAO as per OISST (but not Coral Reef Watch).
https://i.postimg.cc/sf5M6Nrv/ssta-graph-etropatl.png

-NAO will help.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1765834905689170372

[cycloneye]

About the MJO.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1765848998575841735

[DorkyMcDorkface]

About the MJO.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1765848998575841735

Anomalous ascent over Africa/the IO and suppression in the Pacific, looks like a textbook Niña standing wave.

[cycloneye]

About the MJO.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1765848998575841735

Anomalous ascent over Africa/the IO and suppression in the Pacific, looks like a textbook Niña standing wave.

Indeed.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1765713274593538546

[Keldeo1997]

If WXman is saying watch out then you know this could bad

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1765898622439190956

[Teban54]

About the MJO.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1765848998575841735

Anomalous ascent over Africa/the IO and suppression in the Pacific, looks like a textbook Niña standing wave.

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1765893141981212722

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1765898622439190956?s=19

Yeah, that's a bad look. Maybe we'll see a southern biased season early with any west-basin systems. Seems like Mexico and central America are gonna take at least a few hits from waves or whatever they might be. It's normal for impulses to move across those areas anyway and into the EPAC. But with the precipitation down there at in "+" range, maybe they'll get more than normal.

MJO took control of the USA's winter despite many of the indicators and indices that favor colder patterns. It's still early March, so it's probably going to get cold at least a couple more times. But since the last really cold outbreak, it's been mild. The phases MJO preferred to be in (4/5/6/7) are typically warmer phases in winter except for 4. None of those are particularly favorable for hurricane hits on the USA or activity in the western Atlantic like 8/1/2/3 (particularly Phases 2 and 3). So the evolution into spring and summer and how it behaves and interacts with the building La Nina and also to see if it will be strong enough to be predictive in 2024 will become important. Some years MJO is weaker and isn't the main influence on the tropical Atlantic. It's not been weak this winter at all. So should it remain one of the dominant controlling interests, it could be a year where moves into the Indian Ocean phases will telegraph western Atlantic activity.