Will NHC switch back to a 26-name list (use all letters)?

[cycloneye]

This is a very good articule from Dr Bon Henson about this topic. What do the members think about this?

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023 ... the-1950s/

If the National Hurricane Center had been using a 26-letter lists of storm names in 2005, as they did in the late 1950s, Rita might have been named Quenby, Quinta, or Quella.

[Hurricane2022]

This is a very good articule from Dr Bon Henson about this topic. What do the members think about this?

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023 ... the-1950s/

If the National Hurricane Center had been using a 26-letter lists of storm names in 2005, as they did in the late 1950s, Rita might have been named Quenby, Quinta, or Quella.

https://i.imgur.com/UlfTDnA.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Dkzx0nj.jpg

I myself find it difficult for them to use some letters there due to the fact that the Atlantic rarely exceeds the total of 18 - 19 TS per year, although from 2020 to date, only 2022 has not ended with 20 or more NS (obviously, this is also without counting the possibility of 2024 could rival 2020, 2010 and possibly 2017 in terms of cyclonic activity.)

But I would like to see names with initials Q, U, X, Y and Z in the near future. It would be cooler and make the list of names more complete.

[Teban54]

This is a very good articule from Dr Bon Henson about this topic. What do the members think about this?

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023 ... the-1950s/

If the National Hurricane Center had been using a 26-letter lists of storm names in 2005, as they did in the late 1950s, Rita might have been named Quenby, Quinta, or Quella.

https://i.imgur.com/UlfTDnA.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Dkzx0nj.jpg

From the list of names provided alone, it appears that while using Z and maybe Y can be justified, Q, U and X names are still too rare to be used on a regular basis for all 14 naming lists (both basins and auxiliary names), not to mention replacements for retired names.

There's also a difference between feasible names and actually good names (which should ideally be at least somewhat common in at least one language frequently used in countries impacted by Atlantic/EPAC hurricanes). Current I names are slowly walking into the "no longer good enough" category (cough cough Isaias cough cough), which may cause more public confusion that deviates the attention from the storm itself and its impacts, as was the case for Isaias and the Greek alphabet. Given the selection of names mentioned here, I'd argue that Q, U, X, Y may have an even worse starting point than today's I names, not to mention the original I names in 1979.

[wwizard]

I don't think they'll ever go to 26 letters but with "I" names running low I think rotating "I" with the other unused letters wouldn't be a bad idea. Example, 2024 would not include an "I" name but would have "Q" on the list instead. 2025, no "I" no "Q" but use "U". "X" in '26, "Y" in '27, "Z" in '28, then "I" again in 2029.

Either that or stop starting over at "A" every year and pick up where the last storm left off. Example, assuming no storm forms this month, the 1st storm of 2024 would not be Alberto but would be Vince instead.

[GSBHurricane]

I would say XYZ could be added to mirror the EPAC but I can't envision the NHC ever including Q and U due to how scarce names beginning with those two letters are. Even with X, Y, and Z, they'd probably go with two sets of XYZ names to alternate every two years such as Xanthos, Yona, and Zion in odd-numbered years and Xia, Yves, and Zoey in even-number years (based on a tweet from Rick Knabb and his take on QUXYZ names from a few years back).

[Dean_175]

Only if seasons with 21+ named storms become much more common in the future and the recent 2020-2021 seasons weren't just an aberration. I like the system of a 7th auxiliary list the most. The idea of a seventh group of names that has never been used seems with the alphabet going back to "A" seems really cool to me. A whole new list of names that is only unlocked once a season achieves high activity seems like the best idea when seasons only rarely spill over and use all the names. Names like Adria and Caridad aren't something we have seen. I was disappointed 2021 didn't spin up one more subtropical low from an occluded system in the open Atlantic and use Adria for the first time. Greek letters were cool but came with logistical problems with retirement. Before then, there wasn't a good retirement system for them but they never had to retire a Greek storm before, so they kept it. The retirement was to retire not the letter but the year (so in that system, "Eta-2020" would have been retired rather than "Eta"). If that unnamed subtropical storm from 2005 was named then Wilma would have been Alpha instead and they would have had to deal with it in real life at that time. Naming that one storm probably probably would have resulted in the Greek system being abolished in 2006 and 2020 using an aux list. They realized that the old protocol for retiring greek names would essentially be leaving an infamous name to be re-used as the name was not actually really retired in the process (a future storm would still be called Eta), so decided against it. Eta was retired properly in addition to also retiring the Greek letter system in general. But it was a problem that did eventually come up after Delta, Zeta, Iota, and Eta from 2020. There are very few names that start with X or Q. Even with 26 letters, both 2005 and 2020 would have still needed more names. So far every recorded season that has exceeded 21 names has also happened to exceed 26 names. It may become a very smart idea if 18-20 named storm seasons become 21-23 named storm seasons with climate change and 18 storms the new average, but we aren't there yet. Climatology is still safely within that 21 named storms, except for a small handful of years that were anomalous and wouldn't be captured even by a 26 name system. That is why NHC had the NE Pacific changed to using those letters. It was thought that 21 named storms was simply too few for the basin. The NHC takes a fairly conservative approach most of the time and unless something has happened, they don't usually change protocol except for a real life reason. After several years of May tropical/subtropical storms culminating in 2020, they took the decision the consider changing the date of hurricane season, but instead changed to issuing advisories in the middle of May rather than June 1 while keeping hurricane season the same. A change, but they took the more conservative route. To change the number of names, the NHC would probably have to believe that climatology in number of named storms has shifted substantially enough that 21 names is no longer enough. I don't see that happening soon except if the 2020s begins a trend of more named storms and we see one more season with greater than 21 storms within the next 5 years or so.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

As a name expert myself I have long believed that there are definitely enough Z names to add that letter to the lists, with a full complement of six different names on the six different lists.

I think there probably are enough Y names, also, especially since a generation ago names starting with Y were very fashionable in Latin America, especially in Spanish speaking countries of the Caribbean.

However, I don't think there are enough Q,U, and X names to make it practical to include them, especially since they actually come higher in the alphabet than Y and Z and so would be more likely to be retired if they were added to the list. Perhaps one name from each of these letters could be added so that you would have one additional name on each of the six lists --- you might start off with adding Quincy, Ursula, Zachary, Queenie, Uriel, and Zoe, one of them on each of the six lists, for example.

[al78]

No problem finding names for the missing letters, just use this site, you'll find more than enough boys and girls names beginning with Q, U, Y and Z:

https://www.thebump.com/b/search

[DioBrando]

As a name expert myself I have long believed that there are definitely enough Z names to add that letter to the lists, with a full complement of six different names on the six different lists.

I think there probably are enough Y names, also, especially since a generation ago names starting with Y were very fashionable in Latin America, especially in Spanish speaking countries of the Caribbean.

However, I don't think there are enough Q,U, and X names to make it practical to include them, especially since they actually come higher in the alphabet than Y and Z and so would be more likely to be retired if they were added to the list. Perhaps one name from each of these letters could be added so that you would have one additional name on each of the six lists --- you might start off with adding Quincy, Ursula, Zachary, Queenie, Uriel, and Zoe, one of them on each of the six lists, for example.

Supplemental list
Names Aidan Bruna Carmelo Daniella Esteban Flor Gerardo Hedda Izzy Jacinta Kenito Luna
Marina Nancy Ovidio Pia Rey Skylar Teo Violeta Wilfredo Xinia Yariel Zoe