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DioBrando wrote:Ptarmigan wrote:Joe Bastardi's forecast is quite bullish. That puts it on par with 2005 and 2010 and presumably 1933.
sauce please?
crownweather wrote:
Actual full forecast can be found at
https://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2024-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast/
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cycloneye wrote:ACE from WeatherTiger=195 and 20-24 named storms. Yikes.
https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atl ... first-look
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1771190649770918129
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1771192688529879402
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1771192864615080356
https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1771193230878544249
cycloneye wrote:The folks of AccuWeather use bombastic words to describe the 2024 season. Their forecast is up and is hot to not post their words.
https://i.imgur.com/PVkY6IV.jpeg
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... %20impacts.
cycloneye wrote:The folks of AccuWeather use bombastic words to describe the 2024 season. Their forecast is up and is hot to not post their words.
https://i.imgur.com/PVkY6IV.jpeg
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... %20impacts.
wxman57 wrote:Just returned from the National Hurricane Conference last evening. Had a chance to talk to Phil Klotzbach when he stopped by our booth in the exhibit hall. Can't tell you his numbers, as he'll be releasing them at the National Tropical Weather Conference next week. However, I can say that he sees the same things that everyone else does. My main question to him was about the NAO this season. For the past several years, the NAO has been mostly negative during the season, resulting in a weaker Bermuda High and early recurving of storms. He does think that the NAO will be more positive this year, but there is a lot of uncertainty in any long-range NAO forecast. A positive NAO would open up the Caribbean for long-tracked hurricanes. It's pretty clear that all seasonal parameters suggest a much above normal season, but I remember discussing the 2013 season with him prior to the start and everything looked favorable then, too. Turned out to be a dud season. Let's hope this season is a dud.
SFLcane wrote:wxman57 wrote:Just returned from the National Hurricane Conference last evening. Had a chance to talk to Phil Klotzbach when he stopped by our booth in the exhibit hall. Can't tell you his numbers, as he'll be releasing them at the National Tropical Weather Conference next week. However, I can say that he sees the same things that everyone else does. My main question to him was about the NAO this season. For the past several years, the NAO has been mostly negative during the season, resulting in a weaker Bermuda High and early recurving of storms. He does think that the NAO will be more positive this year, but there is a lot of uncertainty in any long-range NAO forecast. A positive NAO would open up the Caribbean for long-tracked hurricanes. It's pretty clear that all seasonal parameters suggest a much above normal season, but I remember discussing the 2013 season with him prior to the start and everything looked favorable then, too. Turned out to be a dud season. Let's hope this season is a dud.
Hi 57, unless it was a typo someone is confusing the amo with the nao which i am sure you know both. Amo is the Atlantic warmth and Nao is the strength of the high.The AMO hasn't been negative though It's been very positive. NAO has been negative especially last year. But yeah that's not really predictable at this range.
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