Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[SFLcane]

Joe Bastardi --- https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-s ... first-look --- 25-30 named storms

AccuWeather --- https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... 24/1623587 -

AccuWeather --- https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... %20impacts. --- Between 20-25 named storms - March 27

TSR --- https://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRA ... er2024.pdf --- 20/9/4

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... il2024.pdf --- 23/11/5 ACE: 217--- April 8


CSU --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-04.pdf --- 23/11/5 - April 4

June 2-

July 7-

August 4-

Crownweather Services --- https://crownweather.com/index.php/disc ... -forecast/ 25/12/6 - March 13



WeatherTiger --- https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atl ... first-look --- Between 20-24 Named Storms ACE: 195 - March 22

University of Arizona --- https://has.arizona.edu/news/2024-hurri ... kyle-davis --- April 8 - 21/11/5 ACE: 156

N.C State --- https://news.ncsu.edu/2024/04/nc-state- ... ne-season/ --- April 16 - Between 15-20 named storms

Weather Channel --- https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... hOS_QV6WL4 --- 24/11/6 - April 18

Better enjoy the off season while you can.

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1733128474309624228

[cycloneye]

Better enjoy the off season while you can.

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1733128474309624228?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

Is there a link to see the reasonings that made him go so high? Guess have to pay. I think is the first time he does a forecast in early December? Is very early to throw a forecast and also think early April is much better to begin the forecasts and outlooks. CSU will issue theirs on April 3rd.

[CyclonicFury]

TSR's December 2024 forecast is out. 20-9-4, the highest December forecast by them ever issued

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... er2024.pdf

[zzzh]

The current statistical models used to predict August-September MDR sea surface temperature and JulySeptember Caribbean trade wind speed anomaly has been built using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data, which we have found tends to have a low bias in sea surface temperature in the Atlantic. An alternative version of the models using ERA5 re-analysis data predicts much warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and much weaker Caribbean trade winds which results in a prediction for a hyper-active season with an ACE index around 200.

[SFLcane]

TSR's December 2024 forecast is out. 20-9-4, the highest December forecast by them ever issued

http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... er2024.pdf

That is wild!

[Blown Away]

Many of us have followed Joe B for decades and most of us respect his perspective. I’m speechless that he goes 25-30 named storms and shows the activity in the W Atlantic. That is a big prediction from him.

[cycloneye]

TSR is usually a conservative private firm, but to have these numbers 20/9/4 to begin the 2024 forecasts and in December, is a first and a big thing.

[al78]

TSR is ussually a conservative private firm, but to have these numbers 20/9/4 to begin the 2024 forecasts and in December, is a first and a big thing.

I was responsible for generating the forecast and although it is one of the highest ever issued at this extended lead time*, it still represents a reined in version of what our statistical models for the predictors and overall activity were indicating. The only reason the forecast is as low as it is is because I didn't feel comfortable being so aggressive so far out when the forecast skill is very low, and there is plenty of opportunity to hike it up in early April if the signals for extremely favourable Aug-Sep Atlantic/Caribbean SST and trade wind predictors are still there. Even after all this there is a small possibility of weak La Nina conditions developing through spring/early summer which would result in a further increase in the forecast at shorter lead times.

*The extended range forecast issued in December 2006 was of similar magnitude to this one just released and look how the 2007 hurricane season turned out, so nothing is guarenteed no matter how bullish the forecasts are currently.

[Steve]

Many of us have followed Joe B for decades and most of us respect his perspective. I’m speechless that he goes 25-30 named storms and shows the activity in the W Atlantic. That is a big prediction from him.

I just watched that part (the end) of the Saturday summary which I haven't watched in months. His red zone is basically the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and SW Atlantic to the Carolinas coming in at 2-3x normal ACE with the rest of the western basin at least normal or above normal. I kept waiting on the US northeast coast hype, but he didn't go there. His methodology (guessing it was a climate model) was warm over cold over warm creating the alley straight at the SE US and Islands. I'm thinking we don't need another 2005 or 2021 (or 2017 or 2020 for that matter either).

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1739251361173180507

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1739251361173180507?s=20

He's already made his first forecast for next year
20-25 storms
13-17 hurricanes
5-9 major hurricanes
ACE 200-240
I dont recall JB ever having a forecast that bullish in the 20 years I have followed him

[tolakram]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1739251361173180507?s=20

He's already made his first forecast for next year
20-25 storms
13-17 hurricanes
5-9 major hurricanes
ACE 200-240
I dont recall JB ever having a forecast that bullish in the 20 years I have followed him

It's free, available here with his impact graphic. https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-season-from-hell-first-look

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1739251361173180507?s=20

He's already made his first forecast for next year
20-25 storms
13-17 hurricanes
5-9 major hurricanes
ACE 200-240
I dont recall JB ever having a forecast that bullish in the 20 years I have followed him

In 2005 he mentioned early in the summer that his numbers were underdone and if he put out what he really thought was going to happen, his bosses would not like it because it was too extreme. But that was only a hint. We know what ended up happening.

[wxman57]

JB's forecast looks like it would be better suited to April 1. I see no reason to go anywhere near those numbers. I'm hoping for a nice, quiet, sub-10 season (not forecasting, just hoping).

[Hurricane2022]

I'm hoping for a nice, quiet, sub-10 season (not forecasting, just hoping).

This usually doesn't work
But now I would like to know if you have any initial thoughts about what could happen in this future 2024 season. If you have any ideas on this, please share them with us

[Blown Away]

TSR is ussually a conservative private firm, but to have these numbers 20/9/4 to begin the 2024 forecasts and in December, is a first and a big thing.

I was responsible for generating the forecast and although it is one of the highest ever issued at this extended lead time*, it still represents a reined in version of what our statistical models for the predictors and overall activity were indicating. The only reason the forecast is as low as it is is because I didn't feel comfortable being so aggressive so far out when the forecast skill is very low, and there is plenty of opportunity to hike it up in early April if the signals for extremely favourable Aug-Sep Atlantic/Caribbean SST and trade wind predictors are still there. Even after all this there is a small possibility of weak La Nina conditions developing through spring/early summer which would result in a further increase in the forecast at shorter lead times.

*The extended range forecast issued in December 2006 was of similar magnitude to this one just released and look how the 2007 hurricane season turned out, so nothing is guarenteed no matter how bullish the forecasts are currently.

What clues do you look at leading up to the hurricane season that would make you predict higher landfall impacts for Caribbean/Bahamas/CONUS?

It appears the Atlantic hurricane season is looking at cool/neutral or La Nina, is there a significant difference between the 2 with regards to landfall potential?

Thank you!

[SFLcane]

JB's forecast looks like it would be better suited to April 1. I see no reason to go anywhere near those numbers. I'm hoping for a nice, quiet, sub-10 season (not forecasting, just hoping).

April 1 or April fools lol..Sub-10 season considering what early indications are looking like looks extremely unlikely infact I would not be surprised to see most forecasting agencies go hyper active come April.

[al78]

TSR is ussually a conservative private firm, but to have these numbers 20/9/4 to begin the 2024 forecasts and in December, is a first and a big thing.

I was responsible for generating the forecast and although it is one of the highest ever issued at this extended lead time*, it still represents a reined in version of what our statistical models for the predictors and overall activity were indicating. The only reason the forecast is as low as it is is because I didn't feel comfortable being so aggressive so far out when the forecast skill is very low, and there is plenty of opportunity to hike it up in early April if the signals for extremely favourable Aug-Sep Atlantic/Caribbean SST and trade wind predictors are still there. Even after all this there is a small possibility of weak La Nina conditions developing through spring/early summer which would result in a further increase in the forecast at shorter lead times.

*The extended range forecast issued in December 2006 was of similar magnitude to this one just released and look how the 2007 hurricane season turned out, so nothing is guarenteed no matter how bullish the forecasts are currently.

What clues do you look at leading up to the hurricane season that would make you predict higher landfall impacts for Caribbean/Bahamas/CONUS?

It appears the Atlantic hurricane season is looking at cool/neutral or La Nina, is there a significant difference between the 2 with regards to landfall potential?

Thank you!

We don't do landfall forecasts at this lead time and at most lead times we get landfalling numbers by thinning from total activity. Landfalling on the Lesser Antilles has in the past been forecast from forecast activity in the Main Development Region, which itself is related to sea surface temperatures and the forecast trade wind anomaly. Seasonal landfalling activity is going to have a significant randomness element to it because it just needs a suitable steering pattern set up at a time a major hurricane(s) is/are active to create a disaster for someone (e.g. Andrew 1992), but there may be some relationship between ENSO and U.S. landfalls, my perception is that El Nino years tend to be characterised with more recurving storms whereas during La Nina years there is a higher likelihood of storms tracking through the deep tropics into the Caribbean Sea, and conditions tend to be more favourable for hurricanes in the Caribbean/Gulf during La Nina.

[SFLcane]

I was responsible for generating the forecast and although it is one of the highest ever issued at this extended lead time*, it still represents a reined in version of what our statistical models for the predictors and overall activity were indicating. The only reason the forecast is as low as it is is because I didn't feel comfortable being so aggressive so far out when the forecast skill is very low, and there is plenty of opportunity to hike it up in early April if the signals for extremely favourable Aug-Sep Atlantic/Caribbean SST and trade wind predictors are still there. Even after all this there is a small possibility of weak La Nina conditions developing through spring/early summer which would result in a further increase in the forecast at shorter lead times.

*The extended range forecast issued in December 2006 was of similar magnitude to this one just released and look how the 2007 hurricane season turned out, so nothing is guarenteed no matter how bullish the forecasts are currently.

What clues do you look at leading up to the hurricane season that would make you predict higher landfall impacts for Caribbean/Bahamas/CONUS?

It appears the Atlantic hurricane season is looking at cool/neutral or La Nina, is there a significant difference between the 2 with regards to landfall potential?

Thank you!

We don't do landfall forecasts at this lead time and at most lead times we get landfalling numbers by thinning from total activity. Landfalling on the Lesser Antilles has in the past been forecast from forecast activity in the Main Development Region, which itself is related to sea surface temperatures and the forecast trade wind anomaly. Seasonal landfalling activity is going to have a significant randomness element to it because it just needs a suitable steering pattern set up at a time a major hurricane(s) is/are active to create a disaster for someone (e.g. Andrew 1992), but there may be some relationship between ENSO and U.S. landfalls, my perception is that El Nino years tend to be characterised with more recurving storms whereas during La Nina years there is a higher likelihood of storms tracking through the deep tropics into the Caribbean Sea, and conditions tend to be more favourable for hurricanes in the Caribbean/Gulf during La Nina.

I surely I think there is a relationship there for Conus and the Islands.

[CyclonicFury]

JB's forecast looks like it would be better suited to April 1. I see no reason to go anywhere near those numbers. I'm hoping for a nice, quiet, sub-10 season (not forecasting, just hoping).

Getting a sub-10 named storm season in the modern era would be extremely unlikely, unless we had an exceptionally quiet season or NHC stopped naming short-lived weak sheared storms based on ASCAT data. With El Niño likely to dissipate by early summer and the +AMO SST pattern unlikely to dissipate any time soon, that doesn't seem like a very realistic possibility for 2024. I do think JB's 25-30 NS forecast this early is too extreme though.