#116 Postby StPeteMike » Mon Apr 08, 2024 5:09 pm
al78, I know that it’s mentioned that it’s impractical to forecast the direction of the storms and the threat to CONUS. But is it in bad taste to suggest that with even a mild La Niña by peak season, higher than average SSTs, and forecast of relaxed tradewinds/shear in the Caribbean; the Gulf and East Coast should be prepared for a greater than normal risk this season than previous seasons? Obviously, factors like Saharan Dust and placement of the Bermuda High will matter as well and that’s harder to forecast this far out from the start of the season. But even compared to an average season, the risk to CONUS is greater with the 3 factors previously mentioned, correct?
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