Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

I think the first forecast from CSU will be with very high numbers and if it happens, it may be the first forecast with the highest numbers that PK has made in the April one. In the April 2020 forecast, he had 16/8/4.

Archive of forecasts.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive.html#forecasts

[SFLcane]

I think the first forecast from CSU will be with very high numbers and if it happens, it may be the first forecast with the highests numbers that PK has made in the April one. In the April 2020 forecast, he had 16/8/4.

Archieves of forecasts.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive.html#forecasts

Oh I think it could be record high for April 5 majors certainly a possibility.

[Javlin]

I was telling another member as he mentioned the high forecast something I notice as happening.The years that we get snow or sleet on/close the the coast line the GOM is busy the following season it just denotes a change in the pattern usually Neutral/LaNina.I see now why our insurance rates for many have gone up 20-30% in the area.

[AnnularCane]

I was telling another member as he mentioned the high forecast something I notice as happening.The years that we get snow or sleet on/close the the coast line the GOM is busy the following season it just denotes a change in the pattern usually Neutral/LaNina.I see now why our insurance rates for many have gone up 20-30% in the area.

I've heard that too, people usually bring up Christmas 2004 and Katrina as an example, but I'm skeptical, I haven't really seen a strong connection myself. The Gulf coast has had winter weather without hurricanes following as well.

[Gums]

Salute!

I agree with others that scary forecasts from JoeB and TSR this early were not anticipated. Hmmmm....

I also have to contribute my observations from 40 years on the coast recently and 20 or so years close but not worried if a storm was 100+ miles away, especially If to our east. The El Nino/La Nina correlation has been very clear to me, and seems the LA/MS and TX folks have more in La Nina or neutral years.

Instead of seeking more grant money to predict the planet will burn like your BBQ grill, I prefer more research as to the relationship of ENSO to the storms and seek a cause and effect solution/theory.

Gums sends...

[wxman57]

I think the first forecast from CSU will be with very high numbers and if it happens, it may be the first forecast with the highest numbers that PK has made in the April one. In the April 2020 forecast, he had 16/8/4.

Archive of forecasts.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive.html#forecasts

I've been conversing with Phil over the past week about the upcoming season. We both agree that various factors indicate above-normal activity. Nothing close to what JB is forecasting, though. We're not sure what he's looking at. I'm thinking 17-19 named storms with 7-9 hurricanes and 3-5 majors seems reasonable. Phil will likely be close to those numbers, though he hasn't specifically mentioned any numbers and I couldn't disclose them if he did. I think the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes is more significant than the total number of named storms. With the naming of subtropical storms (in January last year) and the ever-increasing number of weak, short-lived storms, the total number is less important.

[SFLcane]

I think the first forecast from CSU will be with very high numbers and if it happens, it may be the first forecast with the highest numbers that PK has made in the April one. In the April 2020 forecast, he had 16/8/4.

Archive of forecasts.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/archive.html#forecasts

I've been conversing with Phil over the past week about the upcoming season. We both agree that various factors indicate above-normal activity. Nothing close to what JB is forecasting, though. We're not sure what he's looking at. I'm thinking 17-19 named storms with 7-9 hurricanes and 3-5 majors seems reasonable. Phil will likely be close to those numbers, though he hasn't specifically mentioned any numbers and I couldn't disclose them if he did. I think the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes is more significant than the total number of named storms. With the naming of subtropical storms (in January last year) and the ever-increasing number of weak, short-lived storms, the total number is less important.

I think thats an understatement at this point how about hyperactive everything i see is clearly pointing in that direction.

[Gums]

Salute!

Gotta go with wxman, and still looking at La Nina before we vote for this year. I also don't put much stock in total storms and believe NOAA/NHC would rather over predict and name than diminish possibilities.

Funny but my forecast for last year fits exactly with wxman's idea for this year. It was 18-8-4 !

I'm gonna stick with my ENSO correlation feeling again this year. Cause and effect? Maybe, but how? So watching the ENSO for now.

Gums sends...

[cycloneye]

Salute!

Gotta go with wxman, and still looking at La Nina before we vote for this year. I also don't put much stock in total storms and believe NOAA/NHC would rather over predict and name than diminish possibilities.

Funny but my forecast for last year fits exactly with wxman's idea for this year. It was 18-8-4 !

I'm gonna stick with my ENSO correlation feeling again this year. Cause and effect? Maybe, but how? So watching the ENSO for now.

Gums sends...

Hi Gums. This year's Storm2k Numbers Poll will begin on March 10th, coinciding with the Daylight Saving Time date. From this year forward, the poll will open on the second Sunday's of March.

[Javlin]

The Gulf coast has had winter weather without hurricanes following as well.

I agree totally Feb1995 we had a light snow in the afternoon son's first time 3 yrs old=Opal,1989 was a hard evening snow =0, as you said Katrina and there was another snow event seemed like Elana? followed have a pic of my hotrod covered in snow.It's not accurate it just kinda foretells what's happening to West/Pacific to a degree.Trying to find snow records for the Deep South is more by new article than records.

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1984/01/10 ... 442558800/

[cycloneye]

Unless another agency or private firm comes before accuweather, the March 27 date is the next to watch in terms of forecasts.

AccuWeather will release its full 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Wednesday, March 27.

[AnnularCane]

Unless another agency or private firm comes before accuweather, the March 27 date is the next to watch in terms of forecasts.

AccuWeather will release its full 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Wednesday, March 27.

Happy birthday to me!

[Ptarmigan]

Joe Bastardi's forecast is quite bullish. That puts it on par with 2005 and 2010 and presumably 1933.

[chaser1]

Unless another agency or private firm comes before accuweather, the March 27 date is the next to watch in terms of forecasts.

AccuWeather will release its full 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Wednesday, March 27.

Happy birthday to me!

Welcome to the Aries Hurricane Enthusiast Team

[KirbyDude25]

Unless another agency or private firm comes before accuweather, the March 27 date is the next to watch in terms of forecasts.

AccuWeather will release its full 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Wednesday, March 27.

Happy birthday to me!

Welcome to the Aries Hurricane Enthusiast Team

Dang, that exists? Well, my birthday's April 1, so count me in! Guess AccuWeather's forecast is more of an early present for me, though the real present will be the several forecasts that come in the first half of the month, including some pretty notable ones. Wonder how high CSU and April TSR will go this year...

[DioBrando]

Joe Bastardi's forecast is quite bullish. That puts it on par with 2005 and 2010 and presumably 1933.

sauce please?

[AnnularCane]

Happy birthday to me!

Welcome to the Aries Hurricane Enthusiast Team

Dang, that exists? Well, my birthday's April 1, so count me in! Guess AccuWeather's forecast is more of an early present for me, though the real present will be the several forecasts that come in the first half of the month, including some pretty notable ones. Wonder how high CSU and April TSR will go this year...

Yep, the REAL forecasts. lol

[OuterBanker]

Accuwearthe posted pre 2024 hurricane season video yesterday.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... 24/1623587

[Steve]

Accuwearthe posted pre 2024 hurricane season video yesterday.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... 24/1623587

Good to see Bernie Rayno still going. The main "news" takeaway was at the end where they are cautioning for rapid development storms and more majors as well as an enhanced landfall potential for Texas and Louisiana. Storms intensifying coming in (e.g. Michael) are some of the most dangerous. Outside of Ida in 2021, the biggest recent year for Louisiana was 2020 where Zeta, Delta and Laura hit the coastline. TS Marco came close but was dissipating as it moved in. Sally also hit Pensacola that year and screwed things up there.

[Gums]

Salute!

Even the local WX dudes, who know a lot more about storms than 95% of rest of country, are jumping on the bandwagon......

I am not all in on armegeddon yet. Am trying to find similar conditions ( I am a climatologist more than a super analytical type looking at shorter term conditions). Starting with Hugo, then I go to Andrew and Erin/Opal and such and keep going...
I do agree that we Gulf folks have more problems with Nina, but I also have a feeling the Atlantic seaboard will see some strong storms.

Gums opines...