Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
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Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
The hurricane cone is changing this upcoming hurricane season! Instead of a track forecast, the forecast will now include hazards. What you can expect where you live. This change was unveiled at #OSSTahoe.
@EdgewoodTahoe
Here is the info:
https://click2houston.com/weather/2024/01/23/houston-is-going-to-see-a-different-hurricane-forecast-this-year/
https://x.com/KPRC2Anthony/status/1750217788009144620
@EdgewoodTahoe
Here is the info:
https://click2houston.com/weather/2024/01/23/houston-is-going-to-see-a-different-hurricane-forecast-this-year/
https://x.com/KPRC2Anthony/status/1750217788009144620
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M a r k
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
The product keeps improving, I welcome this as many people think wind and coastal surge are the only problems but flooding rain is another big problem
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
Here is a video from one of Puerto Ricos mets conversation with Jaime Rhome of NHC about the new cone and more. Most is in English.
https://twitter.com/adamonzon/status/1751199499978985666
https://twitter.com/adamonzon/status/1751199499978985666
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Re: Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
Honestly, I don't like it. I guess we will see when we get an actual storm on how it looks, but it looks far too " busy" based on the photos. Really seems to take away from what the cone represented. It was strictly to show the potential path, the watches and warnings told where people lived exactly what to expect...I dont understand why the cone we had used for years caused the average person so many issues, it wasnt exactly complicated.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
IsabelaWeather wrote:Honestly, I don't like it. I guess we will see when we get an actual storm on how it looks, but it looks far too " busy" based on the photos. Really seems to take away from what the cone represented. It was strictly to show the potential path, the watches and warnings told where people lived exactly what to expect...I dont understand why the cone we had used for years caused the average person so many issues, it wasnt exactly complicated.
People thought that in the cone meant it was a certain hit which in most cases isn’t true but was a probability cone
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Re: Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
Hurricaneman wrote:IsabelaWeather wrote:Honestly, I don't like it. I guess we will see when we get an actual storm on how it looks, but it looks far too " busy" based on the photos. Really seems to take away from what the cone represented. It was strictly to show the potential path, the watches and warnings told where people lived exactly what to expect...I dont understand why the cone we had used for years caused the average person so many issues, it wasnt exactly complicated.
People thought that in the cone meant it was a certain hit which in most cases isn’t true but was a probability cone
The cone isn't even a statement of probability or confidence interval for the specific storm. It just means that when averaged across all storms in recent history, the track error has a 67% chance of falling within the cone. No specifics are applied to this particular system: whether every single model shows the storm landfalling in New Orleans 5 days out, or whether the spaghetti plot spreads from Houston to Tampa, the cone will look the same -- whereas the actual situation and preparations needed are very different.
Hazardous effects can also occur well outside of the center of the storm and outside the cone, and those effects are often asymmetrical (the east side is typically the worst). Those are not captured when both the NHC and most news channels primarily use the cone (with a focus of the storm's center) in their communications.
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Re: Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
Teban54 wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:IsabelaWeather wrote:Honestly, I don't like it. I guess we will see when we get an actual storm on how it looks, but it looks far too " busy" based on the photos. Really seems to take away from what the cone represented. It was strictly to show the potential path, the watches and warnings told where people lived exactly what to expect...I dont understand why the cone we had used for years caused the average person so many issues, it wasnt exactly complicated.
People thought that in the cone meant it was a certain hit which in most cases isn’t true but was a probability cone
The cone isn't even a statement of probability or confidence interval for the specific storm. It just means that when averaged across all storms in recent history, the track error has a 67% chance of falling within the cone. No specifics are applied to this particular system: whether every single model shows the storm landfalling in New Orleans 5 days out, or whether the spaghetti plot spreads from Houston to Tampa, the cone will look the same -- whereas the actual situation and preparations needed are very different.
Hazardous effects can also occur well outside of the center of the storm and outside the cone, and those effects are often asymmetrical (the east side is typically the worst). Those are not captured when both the NHC and most news channels primarily use the cone (with a focus of the storm's center) in their communications.
I do think the cone should have been adjusted per confidence level though, I think if they made that change it probably would have helped with public awareness. Like, if the models and NHC is really confident, then the track would show less variation, but if confidence was low it would be bigger, I dont understand the standardized size on every storm.
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Re: Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
IsabelaWeather wrote:Teban54 wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:
People thought that in the cone meant it was a certain hit which in most cases isn’t true but was a probability cone
The cone isn't even a statement of probability or confidence interval for the specific storm. It just means that when averaged across all storms in recent history, the track error has a 67% chance of falling within the cone. No specifics are applied to this particular system: whether every single model shows the storm landfalling in New Orleans 5 days out, or whether the spaghetti plot spreads from Houston to Tampa, the cone will look the same -- whereas the actual situation and preparations needed are very different.
Hazardous effects can also occur well outside of the center of the storm and outside the cone, and those effects are often asymmetrical (the east side is typically the worst). Those are not captured when both the NHC and most news channels primarily use the cone (with a focus of the storm's center) in their communications.
I do think the cone should have been adjusted per confidence level though, I think if they made that change it probably would have helped with public awareness. Like, if the models and NHC is really confident, then the track would show less variation, but if confidence was low it would be bigger, I dont understand the standardized size on every storm.
I agree with this. A static cone size of statistical forecast accuracy is something I just don't understand. Make the graphic show the forecast and confidence in that forecast.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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- cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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- johngaltfla
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Re: Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
To be honest, I expected the change to mean the cone would always include the state of Florida, even it if a storm formed in the Bay of Bengal.
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Re: Hurricane cone is changing for 2024
I enjoyed that immensely!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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