2024 ENSO Updates: La Niña watch in effect

[cycloneye]

Moderate to strong La Niña says Maue.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1763598176055955831

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1763606954683908351

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1763627357254848514

[Kingarabian]

CFS is very likely over blown which is usual at this time of year.

Models are also moving the signal pretty quickly from the IO back to the WPAC by mid March. So the transition may slow down.

[cycloneye]

CFS is very likely over blown which is usual at this time of year.

Models are also moving the signal pretty quickly from the IO back to the WPAC by mid March. So the transition may slow down.

In other words, the not so fast scenario like what the Aussies have applies with this?

[Blown Away]

Stronger Nina might put Central America/MX/BOC in the crosshairs…

[DorkyMcDorkface]

CFS is very likely over blown which is usual at this time of year.

Models are also moving the signal pretty quickly from the IO back to the WPAC by mid March. So the transition may slow down.

While the MJO will likely return to the Pacific by then, I'm noticing how the forecast on the Euro is starting to accelerate it more as it makes its way thru instead. This seems to me like a breakdown is starting to occur with the atmospheric Niño coupling. Harder to get sustained WWBs when this is the case, and even then nearly all of the warmth in the subsurface has been exhausted at this point so it'll take a lot to try and reinforce what is left.

You can tell things are starting to change as the persistent westerlies that were present earlier this year when the event was at its strongest are starting to fizzle and are now forecast to give way to a spell of easterlies.

I do agree that the CFS is very aggressive and it remains to be seen whether or not things will reverse so quickly.

[JetFuel_SE]

CFS is very likely over blown which is usual at this time of year.

Models are also moving the signal pretty quickly from the IO back to the WPAC by mid March. So the transition may slow down.

In other words, the not so fast scenario like what the Aussies have applies with this?

https://i.imgur.com/qtxopZf.jpeg

That model has a huge warm bias anyways, so idk.

[cycloneye]

Stronger Nina might put Central America/MX/BOC in the crosshairs…

If this upcomming 2024 season is going to be very active or hyperactive season as the very early outlooks have been out from some experts have been saying, it may not be the best to have a very strong duper La Niña.

[Blown Away]

Stronger Nina might put Central America/MX/BOC in the crosshairs…

If this upcomming 2024 season is going to be very active or hyperactive season as the very early outlooks have been out from some experts have been saying, it may not be the best to have a very strong duper La Niña.

Yeah, 2024 might be another first, Super Nina with crazy high SST during active hurricane period = ???
Just like 2023 Nino predictions were hyper active, which many doubted, and predictions were right…

I’m thinking a slower transition and cool neutral to weak Nina come ASO which usually means lots of land impacts in the W Basin/GOM…

[USTropics]

Clear to see the cool pool in the eastern Nino 3 region has surfaced from the 7-day trend. Actually had to adjust the contour interval from NOAA's product to fully capture the full extent of cooling in this region (image below is for 7-day trend, not actual anomalies):




This should begin to erode the warmer anomalies to the west over the next few months as the CFS shows through May:

[weeniepatrol]

Time for the imminent trade burst spreading east as mjo orbits from Indian into maritime continent to spread the surfacing thermocline west

[Deshaunrob17]

Stronger Nina might put Central America/MX/BOC in the crosshairs…

If this upcomming 2024 season is going to be very active or hyperactive season as the very early outlooks have been out from some experts have been saying, it may not be the best to have a very strong duper La Niña.

I thought it was just me who remembers that the craziest Atlantic hurricane seasons happened during cold neutral and weak La Niña. Strong La Niña throw a curveball

[cycloneye]

More upwelling is needed to do the real job of cooling.

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1764365052482580542

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1764424147659018381

[869MB]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1764424147659018381

That's so not cool at all

[cycloneye]

El Niño continues to weaken in the weekly CPC update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

The latest weekly
SST departures are:
Niño 4 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 1.3ºC
Niño 3 1.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1764424147659018381

That's so not cool at all

The index will show negative as long as the Japan-Aleutians belt remains warm, even if the actual horseshoe itself isn't so cool.

[Kingarabian]

More upwelling is needed to do the real job of cooling.

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1764365052482580542

The true test is after this trade burst commences and how soon we get another one. La Nina/-ENSO is inevitable, but just how strong and when it takes place will have ramifications on the Atlantic hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1764837147050115475