2024 ENSO Updates: La Niña watch in effect

[Dean_175]

ENSO Updates thread since 2007 to 2023

Although there is a disconnect between the two, dailies have ramped up after the most recent WWB. I wonder if tomorrow we will see 2.1C for the weekly and then after that begin the imminent decline after the trade burst and growth of the cold pool. If we see 2.1C tomorrow then having a single ONI of 2.0C becomes more likely. In that case the event would have tracked 1972 pretty closely. It likely won't be a super/very strong El Nino ( 3 trimonthlies at 2.0C), but it would instead be a strong-to-very strong( more than 3 strong trimonthlies above 1.5C and one at 2.0C). It would likely be close and a 2.0C ONI may go away when the climatology for this event is finalized in 15 years.

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 remains at +2.0C in the first CPC weekly update of 2024.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

NPMM looking pretty warm compared to last year.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1742542855481000344

[zzzh]

ONI now up to 1.9.

[cycloneye]

ONI now up to 1.9.

Here it is.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1742660856083628438




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1742660861397762541

[NotSparta]

ONI now up to 1.9.

Here it is.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php

Looks good for NDJ 2.0 barring some major freak cooldown in January. Most borderline super El Nino you could get

[caneman]

ONI now up to 1.9.

Here it is.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php

Looks good for NDJ 2.0 barring some major freak cooldown in January. Most borderline super El Nino you could get

In layman's terms, when might the El Nino pattern relax. I'm tired of wet, cloudy and colder pattern here in Central West Florida.

[Kingarabian]

ONI now up to 1.9.

Here it is.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php

Looks good for NDJ 2.0 barring some major freak cooldown in January. Most borderline super El Nino you could get

I think even if the trimonthlies met the criteria would be hard to call this a true super El Nino. Atmosphere barely resembled one. As well as the typical teleconnections.

[Dean_175]

Here it is.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php

Looks good for NDJ 2.0 barring some major freak cooldown in January. Most borderline super El Nino you could get

I think even if the trimonthlies met the criteria would be hard to call this a true super El Nino. Atmosphere barely resembled one. As well as the typical teleconnections.

It won't be a true super El Nino (that requires 3 consecutive trimonthlies). More like 1965 or 1972. If it only achieves 2.0C then it may lose that when they change datasets or climatologies. I disagree that the atmosphere is not coupling. SOI wasn't particularly strong in 1972 either. Looking at the monthly global precipitation anomalies for Dec 2023, it is very much El Nino like and you can see the teleconnections with the enhanced December rainfall in the southern US.

[Kingarabian]

Also confused on whats happening with the waters east of Japan. Have been persistently above average since the triple Nina.

[Ntxw]

Looks good for NDJ 2.0 barring some major freak cooldown in January. Most borderline super El Nino you could get

I think even if the trimonthlies met the criteria would be hard to call this a true super El Nino. Atmosphere barely resembled one. As well as the typical teleconnections.

It won't be a true super El Nino (that requires 3 consecutive trimonthlies). More like 1965 or 1972. If it only achieves 2.0C then it may lose that when they change datasets or climatologies. I disagree that the atmosphere is not coupling. SOI wasn't particularly strong in 1972 either. Looking at the monthly precipitation anomalies for Dec 2023, it is very much El Nino like and you can see the teleconnections with the enhanced December rainfall in the southern US.

I agree with much here. Except one point, I believe the overall warming of the oceans masked what this event truly was, mod-strong. The base has risen. How much was already the higher average and how much was the mechanism will take time to decipher. We've seen before as the moving ERSST average changes, the past Ninos obtain higher values. So sometime in the future this event will gain that as well. 1965-1966 was only +1.6 during the ERSSTv2 era.

[Dean_175]

Also confused on whats happening with the waters east of Japan. Have been persistently above average since the triple Nina.

Those waters respond to the PDO, which is a decadal-scale oscillation. In many ways the PDO is driven by "red noise" from ENSO effects and the extratropical waters don't immediately adjust to the current ENSO state.

[weeniepatrol]

MJO loitering over the Indian; destructive interference with the low frequency base (el Nino) state readily apparent.

Enhanced trades expanding to include the entire Pacific





Looking back via the 90-day Hovmoller, this should be the most expansive trade burst in this time series

[Kingarabian]

Also confused on whats happening with the waters east of Japan. Have been persistently above average since the triple Nina.

Those waters respond to the PDO, which is a decadal-scale oscillation. In many ways the PDO is driven by "red noise" from ENSO effects and the extratropical waters don't immediately adjust to the current ENSO state.

Yes, but the PDO would be warm if those waters would return to average or below average. Because the NE Pacific has been persistently warm, sometimes giving a warm horseshoe look.

[Kingarabian]

Looks good for NDJ 2.0 barring some major freak cooldown in January. Most borderline super El Nino you could get

I think even if the trimonthlies met the criteria would be hard to call this a true super El Nino. Atmosphere barely resembled one. As well as the typical teleconnections.

It won't be a true super El Nino (that requires 3 consecutive trimonthlies). More like 1965 or 1972. If it only achieves 2.0C then it may lose that when they change datasets or climatologies. I disagree that the atmosphere is not coupling. SOI wasn't particularly strong in 1972 either. Looking at the monthly global precipitation anomalies for Dec 2023, it is very much El Nino like and you can see the teleconnections with the enhanced December rainfall in the southern US.

I think the atmosphere resembles something similar to a weaker-moderate El Nino vs a strong-super event.

Hawaii for example has remained wet so far, but that may change during 2024 as it's usually the following months after El Nino's peak that the islands begin to dry up.

[zzzh]

Everyone's favorite: Dateline EWB

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 is down to +1.9C in this week's CPC update.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

A reminder that CPC will release their monthly update on Thursday at 10 AM EST, where they talk about probabilities of Neutral or La Niña. The December update had 60% of Neutral between April and June.