2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

[cycloneye]

Up to 34 participants. As always, will be in and out during the day to add new ones.

[cycloneye]

I wonder if some posters who only start browsing the forum closer to the hurricane season have not been aware of the early opening of this year's forecast poll.

Agree. As time gets closer to May 31, the pace will pick up, especially, when big news comes up, such as the CPC monthly ENSO updates and the release of forecasts from the experts. Today the March CPC ENSO update is being released and depending on how the news is in the update, members may post numbers.

Upcomming expert releases:

March 27=Accuweather
April 4=CSU
April 8=TSR
May 9=NOAA outlook

[Fego]

Here we go.
20 / 10 / 4

199 ACE.

[cycloneye]

Here we go.
20 / 10 / 4

199 ACE.

Welcome back. You are #35 on the list.

[WoodberryWx]

15/7/4 141 ACE

Preliminary

[cycloneye]

15/7/4 141 ACE

Preliminary

You are #36 on the list.

[LemieT]

Going with my wildest numbers to date:

20/16/5 - ACE: 175

[cycloneye]

Going with my wildest numbers to date:

20/16/5 - ACE: 175

#37 on the list.

[Woofde]

Prelim numbers just based off of feel: 25/13/7.

Not sure how you get a more active look than this. The most important variable for the season (the AMO) is on fire. ENSO is swinging towards La nina. The PDO is likely to remain negative. The Subtropics are firmly average. I just don't see anything to inhibit the season as of now. Maybe something will present itself, but for now the sky is the limit.

[kevin]

Sure, I'll join as well. Still preliminary as I want to do quite a bit more research in the coming weeks, but for now:
23 / 12 / 6
ACE: 205

[vbhoutex]

I'm hoping these are too high, but I fear they may not be.
Preliminary 21/11/7 ACE 225

[cycloneye]

Up to 40 participants. Will be in and out today so dont worry if you are not added quickly.

[wxman57]

The graphic on the first page is not correct. The numbers are not additive. A forecast of 21/10/4, like yours, is not a forecast of 35 storms. You're forecasting only 21 named storms. The 4 major hurricanes is out of 10 total hurricanes, too. To plot this correctly, you would need to plot it as 11/6/4 (11 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 4 majors). For the spreadsheet, subtract the number of hurricanes from the total named storms and subtract the number of majors from the total number of hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

The graphic on the first page is not correct. The numbers are not additive. A forecast of 21/10/4, like yours, is not a forecast of 35 storms. You're forecasting only 21 named storms. The 4 major hurricanes is out of 10 total hurricanes, too. To plot this correctly, you would need to plot it as 11/6/4 (11 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 4 majors). For the spreadsheet, subtract the number of hurricanes from the total named storms and subtract the number of majors from the total number of hurricanes.

What are your numbers to add you?

[wxman57]

The graphic on the first page is not correct. The numbers are not additive. A forecast of 21/10/4, like yours, is not a forecast of 35 storms. You're forecasting only 21 named storms. The 4 major hurricanes is out of 10 total hurricanes, too. To plot this correctly, you would need to plot it as 11/6/4 (11 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 4 majors). For the spreadsheet, subtract the number of hurricanes from the total named storms and subtract the number of majors from the total number of hurricanes.

What are your numbers to add you?

My numbers are going to be pretty close to yours. I'll have to go check my PowerPoint to see the numbers.

Seriously, for column 1 (named storms) subtract the value from column 2 (hurricanes). For column 2 (hurricanes) subtract the value from column 3 (majors). Graphic will be correct, then. I looked at the graphic for the first time and was amazed that someone was forecasting over 60 named storms!

Here's a corrected version of the page 1 graphic:

http://wxman57.com/images/Forecast.jpg

[TampaFl]

For the 2024 Hurricane Season my prediction is: 23/15/6 A total of 23 named storms of which 15 become hurricanes and 6 of those becoming major hurricanes. Ace 211 Final

[cycloneye]

The graphic on the first page is not correct. The numbers are not additive. A forecast of 21/10/4, like yours, is not a forecast of 35 storms. You're forecasting only 21 named storms. The 4 major hurricanes is out of 10 total hurricanes, too. To plot this correctly, you would need to plot it as 11/6/4 (11 named storms, 6 hurricanes with 4 majors). For the spreadsheet, subtract the number of hurricanes from the total named storms and subtract the number of majors from the total number of hurricanes.

What are your numbers to add you?

My numbers are going to be pretty close to yours. I'll have to go check my PowerPoint to see the numbers.

Seriously, for column 1 (named storms) subtract the value from column 2 (hurricanes). For column 2 (hurricanes) subtract the value from column 3 (majors). Graphic will be correct, then. I looked at the graphic for the first time and was amazed that someone was forecasting over 60 named storms!

Here's a corrected version of the page 1 graphic:

http://wxman57.com/images/Forecast.jpg

http://wxman57.com/images/Forecast.jpg

Send PM to USTropics as the graphic is his.

[cycloneye]

For the 2024 Hurricane Season my prediction is: 23/15/6 A total of 23 named storms of which 15 become hurricanes and 6 of those becoming major hurricanes. Ace 211 Final

You are #41 on the list.

[USTropics]

What are your numbers to add you?

My numbers are going to be pretty close to yours. I'll have to go check my PowerPoint to see the numbers.

Seriously, for column 1 (named storms) subtract the value from column 2 (hurricanes). For column 2 (hurricanes) subtract the value from column 3 (majors). Graphic will be correct, then. I looked at the graphic for the first time and was amazed that someone was forecasting over 60 named storms!

Here's a corrected version of the page 1 graphic:

http://wxman57.com/images/Forecast.jpg

http://wxman57.com/images/Forecast.jpg

Send PM to USTropics as the graphic is his.

It's a stacked bar graph to represent the actual values people are forecasting, not a cumulative bar graph of total tropical cyclones (and why I didn't put a y-label on the graph but have labels near the top). It would be better to have 3 separate bar graphs for each person, but that would get messy as the number of people submitting forecasts increases. I didn't want to cause confusion where someone says "I submitted x tropical storms but it's only showing y". With that said, here is a cumulative bar graph:

[TheAustinMan]

The 2024 Storm2K poll has been nothing short of anomalous, as far as expected activity is concerned. Using 1981-2010 averages, tropical storms produce 1.8 ACE, non-major hurricanes produce 7.7 ACE, and major hurricanes produce 24.1 ACE each, on average. With those values, the mean "climatology-based" ACE based on the guesses in this poll so far is 203.7 (for comparison, the average ACE from those who did provide ACE values is 199.7).

That value is far and away the highest in the over two decade history of this poll thus far, and it's not particularly close. It's ahead of the previous record holder (2006) by the equivalent of nearly an entire major hurricane, which is a lot from an averaging perspective.

As it currently stands, the 2024 poll has the record high in all categories (named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE).