2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

[REDHurricane]

34 NS/18 H/10 MH/299 ACE

[cycloneye]

34 NS/18 H/10 MH/299 ACE

You are #57 on the list of participants.

[cycloneye]

Question for the stats members USTropics and TheAustinMan. What is the average so far for the ACE?

[USTropics]

Question for the stats members USTropics and TheAustinMan. What is the average so far for the ACE?

Here is another chart that will auto update for users that have submitted ACE. This is a combo chart with the bar graph being total tropical cyclones forecasted. Overlayed are line graphs for ACE (values divided by 10 to easily fit on the graph), hurricanes, and major hurricanes:


So far the highest forecasted ACE is 299, the lowest forecasted ACE is 141, and the current average for all forecasts is 198:
Interactive link - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQi_JAUQAqnMTdTXyQlyPvquM9Cvw6dYYrb-NyUVeYj3uEzMTqDvL988aIODOaE8phqeRbdlsMZ19BU/pubchart?oid=1017062082&format=interactive

[KirbyDude25]

So far the highest forecasted ACE is 299, the lowest forecasted ACE is 141, and the current average for all forecasts is 198:
Interactive link - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQi_JAUQAqnMTdTXyQlyPvquM9Cvw6dYYrb-NyUVeYj3uEzMTqDvL988aIODOaE8phqeRbdlsMZ19BU/pubchart?oid=1017062082&format=interactive

If the average of our forecasts were to verify, it would be the 9th most active Atlantic hurricane season by ACE since 1851, between 1950 (211.3 ACE) and 1961 (188.9 ACE). The lowest forecast has almost the exact same ACE as 2016 (141.3), which ranks 31st in that sample, and the highest forecast would be by far the highest ACE ever recorded in the Atlantic, surpassing 1933's total of 258.6 by over 40.

Edit to add: 1851-2024 is 174 seasons, meaning that the lowest forecast in our poll would rank in the 82nd percentile, our average would rank in the 95th percentile, and the highest forecast would (obviously) rank in the 100th percentile.

[TheAustinMan]

Question for the stats members USTropics and TheAustinMan. What is the average so far for the ACE?

The average ACE guess from users that provided it is 198.3 and the average climatology-based ACE is 201.1. These both remain record values for the Storm2k poll.

The climatology-based ACE so far has ranged from 132 to 331 this year. The median is 198.3 and the interquartile (middle 50% of values) is 163-228. If Storm2k was to make a collective seasonal forecast by treating poll responses as "samples" of a normal distribution where the true mean were the actual season's values (definitely not a great/statistically sound practice, but this is just for fun), at α=0.005 the forecast ranges for the 2024 season could call for 21-25 named storms, 11-13 hurricanes, 5-6 major hurricanes, and 185-212 ACE.

[cycloneye]

Thanks to both USTropics and TheAustinMan for doing the stats for this poll that are always important and in some ways entretaining. Keep them comming with new data until the poll closes on May 31rst at midnight EDT and after it closes, the final stats will be posted.

[johngaltfla]

23/11/6 ACE: 261

[cycloneye]

23/11/6 ACE: 261

You are #58 on the list of participants.

[cycloneye]

I think members are waiting for CSU to come out on thursday and then come to participate. But you can come and participate at any time and post the numbers as preliminary and then change them later before May 31rst.

[Hurricane2022]

I think members are waiting for CSU to come out on thursday and then come to participate. But, you can come and participate at any time and post the numbers as preliminary and then change them later before May 31rst.

In my case I'm just waiting for the CSU forecast to see if I'll need to change my numbers (#30) before making them final.

As for today I feel pretty comfortable with the bet I made.

[MHC Tracking]

Preliminary numbers: 21/9/4, ACE 155

[cycloneye]

Preliminary numbers: 21/9/4, ACE 155

You are #59 on the list of participants.

[StPeteMike]

21 Named Storms/ 13 Hurricanes/ 5 MH
ACE: 190

[cycloneye]

21 Named Storms/ 13 Hurricanes/ 5 MH
ACE: 190

You are #60 on the list of participants.

[StormClouds63]

17/9/4 ACE=175 (final)

[cycloneye]

17/9/4 ACE=175 (final)

You are #61 on the list.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, CSU has released their April forecast, so now is the time for the members that have not come yet to post a set of numbers to do so.

[Hurricane2022]

29 TS/17 H/8 MH/ACE 245.........preliminary

29/17/8, ACE 250.
Final #30

[cycloneye]

29 TS/17 H/8 MH/ACE 245.........preliminary

29/17/8, ACE 250.
Final #30

Done.