We may be beginning to see rapid cooling beginning to take place in ENSO regions 1 & 2. Of course, there have been fluctuations. But since late November/early December, ssts have been gradually cooling each week. Supercane and I have made a page with weekly ssts images beginning in November.
The page may take a while to load, especially if you have dial-up.
http://www.geocities.com/forecastteam/IWIC/SSTA.html
And here is the most recent ssta image...
http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/ ... nomaly.gif
And The CPC is still calling this a moderate El Nino? That is rediculous in my opinion. I wouldn't even call this an El Nino. Conditions are NEUTRAL. The drought in Australia is showing signs of breaking and ssts across all of the four main ENSO regions have weakened considerably.
Supercane and I are becoming somewhat more concerned. IF ssts were to continue cooling at this rate for months, we could be dealing with a rather signifact La Nina phase during the heart of the season. The only good news is that we should know whether or not this will occur before the season begins.
Amazing
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cycloneye
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I called for neutral to weak la nina but If this cooling is for real then it well be a mature la nina but I can say that in april when Dr Gray will put out his forecast he will raise his numbers from 12/7/3.
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Anonymous
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cycloneye
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Yeah after last year's big bust. 
lol.
lol.
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