Update from CPC indicates neutral ENSO

[cycloneye]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... cordxy.gif

But this model is a very conservative one so I guess we have to wait for the update from the rest of the models to see what they are going to forecast by the end of this month.

[weathersport]

Interesting. It shows very neutral into the summer months. The tropics may get rolling in June and July this year...Rick

[cycloneye]

Yes Rick it looks like it will be a busy season and maybe starting early and having also a lete season of systems by late october and november but it is too early to say for sure what will happen eventually but an early anaylisis of the factors point to an active season but maybe not many major canes due to the QBO winds that will blow from the east but the number of systems will be more than last season.

[Kevin_Wx]

Do you ever read any of "Methane Mike's" posts on TWC boards? He made an interesting statement about the QBO. He claimed that the height in Atmosphere that the QBO blows (68-75 thousand feet) that the air is far too thin and ionizized (can't spell that well) to effect hurricanes in such a fashion. Also, these winds may be blown by EMF activity, which makes sense. If you've ever looked at a chart of the QBO winds, they are always explained in a thermodynamic sense. Basically, QBO winds are not driven by upper atmosphere temperature. In fact, we really don't know how the QBO works for sure and many explain it to be a "poorly understood" climate factor. Perhaps electricity in the upper-levels holds the key to this?

[cycloneye]

No Kevin I haved read a few of his posts but he comes with stuff that most dont understand you know the dams,Gaia,electrical stuff etc.

But about the QBO winds those are in the way upper layers but about being one of the big factors during a season it is not a big one even Dr Gray doesn't mention it too much in his reports.

[Anonymous]

Hey Kevin did you check your email this week?

[Anonymous]

No Kevin I haved read a few of his posts but he comes with stuff that most dont understand you know the dams,Gaia,electrical stuff etc.

But about the QBO winds those are in the way upper layers but about being one of the big factors during a season it is not a big one even Dr Gray doesn't mention it too much in his reports.

Actually Cyc, the QBO is a huge factor when it comes to tropical Atlantic hurricane activity (esp major). Gray mentions it in every report, its actually one of the factors he talks about the most, second to ENSO.

[cycloneye]

Yes SC that factor is one of the most important ones to see when we analize what will happen with a hurricane season.Azores high,SLPA,sst's,ssta's,the strenghn and position of the TUTT are all important factors and I say SC that all are important one way or another being ENSO the #1 factor.

Being the QBO winds from the east this season will inhibite activity but then the other factors come in and then we have to see which one is favorable and which one is not but looking right now it seems that ENSO,Azores high,sst's,SLPA and ssta's are going to be favorable and then the TUTT is an enigma where it will be and if it is weak of more strong,the QBO will be from the east being the most negative factors so far but still we have a few weeks to see how these factors are going to favor or not an active season or not.

Time will tell very soon.