Early predictions for the hurricane season?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Feb 19, 2003 8:47 pm

My early numbers are 13/8/3 but of course those could change depending on the many factors that makes a season active or not.

I see an active season but it is too early to say how active it will be again depending on how many factors are inhibitors for development and how many are in favor and in the comming months it will be more clear what kind of season it will be.

Rob-TheStormChaser · #2 Postby **Rob-TheStormChaser** » Wed Feb 19, 2003 8:52 pm

I wouldnt be surprised to see us get into the latter part of the alphabet...like the R name...will be actie IMO. My numbers are even higher than yours Luis...we'll see coming into the 'season'.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Feb 19, 2003 9:18 pm

Ok Rob we agree that it will be active but how active is the diference and let's see how far in the alphabet we go.

Rob-TheStormChaser · #4 Postby **Rob-TheStormChaser** » Wed Feb 19, 2003 9:44 pm

Yeah...a few years ago we got to T- Tanya....now thats active!

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Feb 20, 2003 6:15 pm

Not going to get any numbers from me or TWW until May 25! But right now I will say again it is looking like it will be a rather active season.

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Feb 24, 2003 8:33 pm

Back in December, I predicted 11 hurricanes, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major for the 2003 season ... I haven't strayed from that right now, and won't until we obviously get closer to the start of the 2003 season.

mf_dolphin · #7 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Mon Feb 24, 2003 8:40 pm

Mine is just a guess at this point. I think we may just have a contest coming up in May for the real thing...stay tuned :-)

#8 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Feb 25, 2003 2:13 pm

Everything is definitely pointing towards an active season. My preliminary numbers are 15/8/5. Obviously I reserve the right to change them as season gets closer.

Guest · #9 Postby **Guest** » Tue Feb 25, 2003 2:20 pm

I say its going to be an average season. But I have to right to change my mind closer to June 1st.

Patricia

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Feb 25, 2003 9:59 pm

Based upon all of the factors and recent decadal trends, this season will most likely be in the "above average" range. Now, you will never get exact numbers from me, at least until the science becomes more reliable to make accurate predictions (plus, I've been advised not to)

southerngale · #11 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Feb 25, 2003 10:14 pm

I say it'll be an active season but I may change my mind once the season ends. :wink:

#12 Postby **wx247** » Tue Feb 25, 2003 10:16 pm

I voted in the poll, but I will never tell

!

Garrett :multi:

Rob-TheStormChaser · #13 Postby **Rob-TheStormChaser** » Fri Mar 07, 2003 12:31 pm

With El-Nino getting whacked out of the picture by Spring, this should be an interesting season on the initial phases of June possibly.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Mar 08, 2003 8:41 am

Rob El nino or la nina is not the only factor that guides the atlantic basin hurricane season but of course is the most important one but there are other factors that have to be analized to have a complete picture of which of them will be in favor of an active season and which are not.

The azores high,the TUTT,the sea level pressures,the QBO winds,the sst's,the ssta's,the african rainfall are the other factors that are also important to look at.

Now we have to wait a couple of months to see how all the factors come into play one way to another making the 2003 hurricane season more active or not but one thing is for sure and that is el nino wont be present during the hurricane season.

I will make my 2003 forecast at may 1.

Early predictions for the hurricane season?

How many systems you see forming this season?

Early predictions for the hurricane season?

OK, I'll hazard a guess!

Poll - Hurricane Season

Above Average

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