Tropical Cyclone TC19S (Japhet)

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC19S(Japhet) is located 180 E of the coast of Mozambique with winds of 60kt. It is moving SSW at 4kt and is expected to turn more to the West and make landfall in Mozambique in about 42 hours with winds of 75kt. The satellite imagery shows a compact storm so it will weaken rapidly once it comes ashore.

A disturbance now located about 150 NM NNE of Port Hedland in NW Australia is alerted for possible development. Satellite imagery shows that the convection, though still not very organized, shows defined circulation
features and is consolidating about the center. This are could be upgraded to a TC soon.

Another disturbance off the NE coast of Australia shows turning but no clear circulation features as of yet.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

obviously it isn't in the Indian Ocean!! Thank you Steve for keeping us mindful of the fact that it is ALWAYS Hurrricane Season somewhere(or typhoon or whatever it is called in each ocean). Please keep us posted on these storms.

[mf_dolphin]

Always a storm out there of some sort to track! Thanks for the update. I'll have to fire up Eye of the Storm and look at the track. Good ractise for June

[Aslkahuna]

in the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

120 NM E of the coast of Mozambique with winds of 85kt. The storm is moving SSW at 4kt and is expected to turn northward in what appears to be a loop while remaining offshore. It is also expected to peak at 95kt in 36 hours. The latest satellite imagery shows a well defined eye with the storm suggesting that it is likely to be more intense than the current 85kt estimate now. The storm is well defined and is also quite compact and so is not interacting with the landmass to the west despite its proximity to shore consequently, continued development remains possible.

Steve

[isobar]

A very healthy looking TC to be sure: https://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/met7.jpg
Right click on the pic and zoom in.

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC19S (Japhet) is now at 115kt and is located 130 NM
off the east coast of Mozambique. The Storm is moving S at 3kt. It appears to be at peak intensity and is expected to turn to the west and move slowly towards land and weaken to 100kt in the next 48 hours as a building High poleward of the storm sends cooler and drier air into the circulation. In fact, the satellite imagery indicates that the storm has peaked and is losing some of its symmetry.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

Steve is the looping something that is normal for TCs in this part of the world or was this unusual?

[Derek Ortt]

System does appear to have weakened since reaching the estimated peak of 115KT. The eye does appear to be a bit obscured though the satellite image from 1300 UTC was not the clearest. In addition, there appears to be more convection to the north of the center. Still looks like a cat 3 though

[chadtm80]

Thanks for the update.

[Aslkahuna]

is about as normal in this area as it is anywhere else. Usually happens when steering flow is very light.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC19S (Japhet) is now located about 90 NM E of the coast of Mozambique and is headed NW at 5kt with winds of 105kt. It is expected to continue to head WNW-NW and make landfall in about 27 hours with winds of 90kt and weaken to 65kt by 48 hours as it tracks inland. The latest satellite imagery shows some erosion of the eyewall and internal convective structure on the poleward side of the storm suggesting that drier air has been entrained into the system thus weakening could proceed faster than forecast.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC19S (Japhet) made landfall this morning (our time) on
the east coast of Mozambique with winds of 80kt. The storm is now moving inland and dissipating.

Steve

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Funky name for a cyclone! lol