7 of 10 models show neutral ENSO by july and beyond

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

The big change is the CPC model which was with el nino or warm ENSO at all the period until july and later until october but now has changed to neutral and that means CPC being conservative always saying neutral now to me indicates that la nina will be present but in a weak status.

So my friends you can say for sure that el nino wont be present this upcomming season and ENSO will be one of the factors thatr will favor more activity in the atlantic basin but we have to see the other factors to see which are going to favor more activity or not.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Thats good for some places in the contiguous lower 48...they might get some levels re-established again for deficits they lost in the past year.

[cycloneye]

Yes Rob agree with that.

[chadtm80]

Its getting closer. hehe 85 days and counting

[mf_dolphin]

Not close enough yet....but getting there

[cycloneye]

Time goes fast so I am waiting for Ana to form LOL

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

lol Luis...jumping the gun huh?

[Allexpert Mike]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

The big change is the CPC model which was with el nino or warm ENSO at all the period until july and later until october but now has changed to neutral and that means CPC being conservative always saying neutral now to me indicates that la nina will be present but in a weak status.

So my friends you can say for sure that el nino wont be present this upcomming season and ENSO will be one of the factors thatr will favor more activity in the atlantic basin but we have to see the other factors to see which are going to favor more activity or not.

Hey Luis,

Hows it going haven't talked to you in long time. I'm trying to work my way up to a hurricane forecaster for our site and Jason has been giving me lots of help and I thik the following season after this one i'll be ready to go.

But as for El Nino is going to be gone for hurricane season like you said.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... _nino3.gif

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... nino34.gif

Looks like another couple weeks of the active STJ with some nice storm systems from the PAC getitng there act together bringing some nce rains and snows to the Northeast. With the pattern were about to go in I actually think the northern stream will be a bigger story than the stj with lots of s/w coming down from canada and with the amplified pattern they can dig and really shaprpen up the trough and once the trough hits neg. tilt than nice upper level divergence will deepn low and as the streams phase depending on the jet might see couple of bombogeneis episodes.

[northweststormchaser]

good

[cycloneye]

Hey allexpertmike glad to see you after a long time but here you will find plenty of anaylisis about weather and the tropics so again welcome and let's roll towards hurricane season.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Oh yeah...this will be the best forecast team ever assembled under one roof this season...cant wait!

[cycloneye]

Rob what you will see in storm2k in terms of tropical anaylisis and plenty of information will be the best team all around the net by far.We have so far of course myself,Supercane,TWW,Kevin,Stormsfury,Allexpertmike and we hope to grab here M Watkins who is a great meterologist,also AJC or tony who is another meterologist and Barometer Bob who is a very good amateour weather guy who knows plenty about the tropics so you can see that our tropical team is A+.