A formation alert has been issued for a disturbance 445 SE of Diego Garcia. The latest satellite imagery shows banding features and a convective complex. In fact, the system looks better in the satellite imagery than does either Harriet or Erica.
Steve
Formation Alert
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Aslkahuna
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Formation Alert
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northweststormchaser
Tropical cyclone formation alert
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/satshots/sh9203sair.jpg
This is a satellite look at this storm as of this moment it look to have nice banding in low shear so this should become the next tropical system of this season.
UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 042121ZMAR03//
RMKS/
WTXS21 PGTW 042130
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 125 NM RADIUS OF 11.5S7 78.4E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 041730Z5 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 78.4E9. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8
78.5E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 78.7E2, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
041307Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS INCREASED
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED
PRIMARILY WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052130Z1.
4. RELEASED BY: LT SMITH, USN.//
NNNN
This is a satellite look at this storm as of this moment it look to have nice banding in low shear so this should become the next tropical system of this season.
UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 042121ZMAR03//
RMKS/
WTXS21 PGTW 042130
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 125 NM RADIUS OF 11.5S7 78.4E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 041730Z5 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 78.4E9. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S8
78.5E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S7 78.7E2, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
041307Z5 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS INCREASED
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED
PRIMARILY WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052130Z1.
4. RELEASED BY: LT SMITH, USN.//
NNNN
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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